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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Something isn’t jiving in my neck of the woods in middle Tennessee. Weather bug, nws, weather channel all say some snow showers little accumulation but these models are showing anywhere from 3-6” routinely. Interesting they are so bearish compared to the models.
 
beanskip said:
Hard to take the Canadian seriously when it has Charlotte at 13F Friday morning (GFS -- 29F; ICON -- 24F; NAM -- 29F).
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That’s what I was trying to figure out. Where is the cold source? And with a lakes low? Someone smarter than me (which shouldn’t be too hard 😂) can maybe explain it.
 
rduwx said:
That’s what I was trying to figure out. Where is the cold source? And with a lakes low? Someone smarter than me (which shouldn’t be too hard 😂) can maybe explain it.
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Likely by the snow pack up north, but its way too aggressive. CMC has a cold bias.
 
weather bubba said:
This did end up being a better GFS run than the previous one. Shift that low just east of Wilmington another fifty miles east and give me a cold air feed from New England and I set for some snow.
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The low needs to track across the panhandle/Valdosta and not Macon. GA gets screwed with tthis setup
 
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rduwx said:
That’s what I was trying to figure out. Where is the cold source? And with a lakes low? Someone smarter than me (which shouldn’t be too hard 😂) can maybe explain it.
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reminder that the airmass coming in is a textbook cold high and yeah, it will moderate some and weaken but not a ton, it's still early january
 

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rduwx said:
That’s what I was trying to figure out. Where is the cold source? And with a lakes low? Someone smarter than me (which shouldn’t be too hard 😂) can maybe explain it.
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It's the CMC so of course it is way too cold but there is a solid 50/50 low, with a H up over WV and a solid snowpack to our north so these things don't hurt
 
For my central/southern midlands of SC friends.

You want the low to track across North Central Florida and off into the Atlantic for a big snow deal. It's likely not happening, and will come too far North from there, but who knows.
 
Chris Justice WYFF NBC has posted a graphic and wording on Facebook indicating that he is going with 2-4 inches 85 N to NC line. 1-2 South of 85 with mixing with more ice. Has mountains 4-8+. Has Clemson to Greenville to Spartanburg labeled as mainly Snow icy mix at times. South of 85 labeled Icy Mix, Some Snow. Heavy Snow labeled WNC. Of course, he says subject to change.
 
rduwx said:
That’s what I was trying to figure out. Where is the cold source? And with a lakes low? Someone smarter than me (which shouldn’t be too hard 😂) can maybe explain it.
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Hello rduwx, good to see you on here!! I would say there's 2 components to it: 1) High Pressure to the north, and 2) The airmass in place over E Canada / NE / M Atl. Ideally, we have a big high, in strong damming, with a big pool of cold air to the NW, N, and NE of us. In this case, we don't have the high pressure, but we have a good (not great), cold airmass over us and to the north as the storm is moving in. So, negatives are that we don't have the high pressure, and we don't have a super cold airmass. Positives are that the airmass is pretty solid and it's in place...it's not fighting to get across the mountains. But we should always, always question temperatures along the line from Raleigh to GSP
 
Forevertothee said:
Chris Justice WYFF NBC has posted a graphic and wording on Facebook indicating that he is going with 2-4 inches 85 N to NC line. 1-2 South of 85 with mixing with more ice. Has mountains 4-8+. Has Clemson to Greenville to Spartanburg labeled as mainly Snow icy mix at times. South of 85 labeled Icy Mix, Some Snow. Heavy Snow labeled WNC. Of course, he says subject to change.
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Seems very bold to put that out on a Monday night when this is a Friday night event. He may regret that
 
Looks like those of us SE of RDU are really going to be sweating this one out, as usual. Probably snow, sleet, and mostly freezing rain. Anything from nothing on the GFS to 5 inches on the nutjob Canadian. The thought of tree limbs and power lines snapping does not excite me in the least. We need that track about 50 to 75 miles further SE.
 
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