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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie


griteater said:
Hello rduwx, good to see you on here!! I would say there's 2 components to it: 1) High Pressure to the north, and 2) The airmass in place over E Canada / NE / M Atl. Ideally, we have a big high, in strong damming, with a big pool of cold air to the NW, N, and NE of us. In this case, we don't have the high pressure, but we have a good (not great), cold airmass over us and to the north as the storm is moving in. So, negatives are that we don't have the high pressure, and we don't have a super cold airmass. Positives are that the airmass is pretty solid and it's in place...it's not fighting to get across the mountains. But we should always, always question temperatures along the line from Raleigh to GSP
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Hey Grit. It’s been a while. I’m always reading in here but don’t post much anymore. Still great to read posts from people I’ve been talking to on these boards for years and have become so knowledgeable.
The Canadian got me because of the lack of high to the north, as you mentioned, and the track of the low. I was struggling with the temps the Canadian was putting out to keep my area above freezing. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see it. Lol! But after all these years, that didn’t pass the smell test. I could be under estimating the cold air mass.
 
buckinbronco said:
View attachment 160673
Solid
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And I have noticed UKMET continues to have the SNOW line further south between I-85 and just northwest of Columbia. It continues to keep southern parts of the Upstate like Laurens, Greenwood, and Abbeville in play. (GFS has to latest runs). We know Upstate South of 85 is getting ice, I just want the ground covered with snow before that change over.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Still very euro-y for the ukie
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Yes it is. The central U.S. trough doesn't dig south as much as the more amplified solutions. It starts to dig south, then heads east. This is why I'm of the opinion that it's going to be very difficult to get large totals / and keep the cold. Gotta be a trade off there unless we can pull a rabbit. Euro AI and EPS are probably the best mix of both
 
jackendrickwx said:
Still very euro-y for the ukie
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It matched its 12z almost exactly.

Clown footprints for frozen are all covering same areas. Appreciate the Griteater lesson, as it will be deciding factor of track from Pennsecola East. Alll models, save GFS op get us off GA, charelston coast. Can not afford an inland track. 4 days to go. 96 hrs
 
griteater said:
Yes it is. The central U.S. trough doesn't dig south as much as the more amplified solutions. It starts to dig south, then heads east. This is why I'm of the opinion that it's going to be very difficult to get large totals / and keep the cold. Gotta be a trade off there unless we can pull a rabbit. Euro AI and EPS are probably the best mix of both
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further east you get in nc, the more these flatter solutions are better. I’m not sure there’s a scenario at this point where we amp it very much and get an all frozen event east of I-77
 
73c0a5c4fdbbd69ab247040837f3cd3d.gif

Icon temps trending colder for NC during the height of the event


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Metwannabe said:
Meh lighter amounts, solid 1-3 across NC but this is a much weaker system then the ICON/CMC/GFS
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I know we used to say the UKMET had a bias towards being strung out / suppressed. I’m not sure if that’s true anymore given it’s been ages since it was worth following one of these storms. 😂

Generally liking the look of the modeling tonight for central NC, but the possibility is still definitely there that we completely whiff or end up with a coating to rain type situation. Starting to favor a legit storm, though; just hoping it’s more snow and less sleet / ZR.
 
Billypg70 said:
I think we are looking at a True Miller A.
We are going to start to see 8-12 swaths across a broad area from Southern Tenn to the Northern parts of Miss, Bama, & GA,

Then turn the corner and stretch up the 85 corridor in the Carolinas.
Also with that meso H setting up somewhere in the Virginias and with the path of the storm the apps may help with a lee side enhancement instead of dry slotting us!
So those totals may get higher in the Carolinas East of the apps if that low doesn't transfer!
We deserve this ladies & gentlemen East of the apps we have paid our dues.
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Yeah that low transfer is something I am always leery about. I hate that phenomenon as an upstater. Would love to have a storm without a transfer and resulting dryslot.
 
griteater said:
The GFS improved a bit at 500mb - more positive tilt with the trough. As usual, baby steps with the GFS
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i agree it's better at 500mb but i disagree that we're looking for more positive tilt- i think we want more negative tilt by the time the northern stream shortwave dives into the dakotas in a few days. I think it puts more of the board, especially our eastern members, in position for a bigger hit.

The icon was the best model- wind barbs for the back of the trough around the front range/dakotas are almost purely northerlies at hour 90 at 5h
1736226797860.png

whereas with the gfs, there was a significant easterly component to these barbs
1736226826405.png

my take is that the trough on the icon, with better tilt, is able to take advantage of more northerly energy digging into it which helps bring the trough base (and everything else) south. the reason the gfs failed (relatively, for eastern folks) is that the trough was too positively tilted and too much energy got pinched off in that stupid fold in the south, which brought the best forcing (and everything else) northward. I do like your AZ-MT benchmark but I think this is something to watch too
 

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ILMRoss said:
i agree it's better at 500mb but i disagree that we're looking for more positive tilt- i think we want more negative tilt by the time the northern stream shortwave dives into the dakotas in a few days. I think it puts more of the board, especially our eastern members, in position for a bigger hit.

The icon was the best model- wind barbs for the back of the trough around the front range/dakotas are almost purely northerlies at hour 90 at 5h
View attachment 160680

whereas with the gfs, there was a significant easterly component to these barbs
View attachment 160681

my take is that the trough on the icon, with better tilt, is able to take advantage of more northerly energy digging into it which helps bring the trough base (and everything else) south. the reason the gfs failed (relatively, for eastern folks) is that the trough was too positively tilted and too much energy got pinched off in that stupid fold in the south, which brought the best forcing (and everything else) northward. I do like your AZ-MT benchmark but I think this is something to watch too
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I hear ya. If we can get more storm and keep the cold too, I’m all for it. Just playing with fire more on the southern edge when going that route. Icon accomplished both which was nice to see
 
griteater said:
I hear ya. If we can get more storm and keep the cold too, I’m all for it. Just playing with fire more on the southern edge when going that route. Icon accomplished both which was nice to see
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i think this is possible! i think this is why that ensemble run earlier (i think it was 18z eps) jumped both colder and snowier.
 
If the snow and ice are legit on lastest Euro N. ATL metro is in for a whammy... several inches of snow an aproaching a half inch of freezing rain thats some winter weather.
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
Thank you! That definitely looks better than the 12z run


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I'd like to see energy round base of the trough and see it go more neutral/negative, to @ILMRoss point with this positive tilt/flatter solution we compromise qpf. But this was an improvement for sure...... haha I haven't had measurable snow in 3 yrs and now I'm getting greedy
 
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