We can work with this
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
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RDUHeatIsland
Member
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
This pretty much falls in line with its ensemble members
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Awww the purdy maps.....
iGRXY
Member
We are starting to get a nice swath 3-7" along the 85 corridor this suite
Solid winter storm. Several good trends today. 0% chance the Euro is going to make anyone happy tonight.
CMC/ICON bring it south: yay!
now can we get the gfs to do more than tilt a bit more + tomorrow?
Also, I assume CMC cold bias applies at this range
now can we get the gfs to do more than tilt a bit more + tomorrow?
Also, I assume CMC cold bias applies at this range
That’s what I was trying to figure out. Where is the cold source? And with a lakes low? Someone smarter than me (which shouldn’t be too hard
) can maybe explain it.
1.64 back in Miss. Ouch
Xlhunter3
Member
Likely by the snow pack up north, but its way too aggressive. CMC has a cold bias.That’s what I was trying to figure out. Where is the cold source? And with a lakes low? Someone smarter than me (which shouldn’t be too hard
This did end up being a better GFS run than the previous one. Shift that low just east of Wilmington another fifty miles east and give me a cold air feed from New England and I set for some snow.
rburrel2
Member
It's not often you see a 650mb warm nose being an issue...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
GEFS looks to be coming in higher. One member has a streak through MS/AL with inch/hr rates
Its the track angle guys. Goes from Ga Fl line to south of Wilm.
Gfs goes to Macon, midlands. Why gfs is warmer
Gfs goes to Macon, midlands. Why gfs is warmer
that won't veriify these are garbage maps
I know the models often overestimate ice accrual but even half of that would cause problems for many folks throughout the southeast.
The low needs to track across the panhandle/Valdosta and not Macon. GA gets screwed with tthis setup
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That’s what I was trying to figure out. Where is the cold source? And with a lakes low? Someone smarter than me (which shouldn’t be too hard
reminder that the airmass coming in is a textbook cold high and yeah, it will moderate some and weaken but not a ton, it's still early january
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It's the CMC so of course it is way too cold but there is a solid 50/50 low, with a H up over WV and a solid snowpack to our north so these things don't hurtThat’s what I was trying to figure out. Where is the cold source? And with a lakes low? Someone smarter than me (which shouldn’t be too hard
For my central/southern midlands of SC friends.
You want the low to track across North Central Florida and off into the Atlantic for a big snow deal. It's likely not happening, and will come too far North from there, but who knows.
You want the low to track across North Central Florida and off into the Atlantic for a big snow deal. It's likely not happening, and will come too far North from there, but who knows.
Here comes ukie
Forevertothee
Member
Chris Justice WYFF NBC has posted a graphic and wording on Facebook indicating that he is going with 2-4 inches 85 N to NC line. 1-2 South of 85 with mixing with more ice. Has mountains 4-8+. Has Clemson to Greenville to Spartanburg labeled as mainly Snow icy mix at times. South of 85 labeled Icy Mix, Some Snow. Heavy Snow labeled WNC. Of course, he says subject to change.
Yeah and if it tracks more towards the panhandle everyone is in, it's a boardwide snow party for the most part. A bunch of folks in GA and SC are gonna get hosed with cold rain while dealing with the NC folks drunk on their first snow in years.
Hello rduwx, good to see you on here!! I would say there's 2 components to it: 1) High Pressure to the north, and 2) The airmass in place over E Canada / NE / M Atl. Ideally, we have a big high, in strong damming, with a big pool of cold air to the NW, N, and NE of us. In this case, we don't have the high pressure, but we have a good (not great), cold airmass over us and to the north as the storm is moving in. So, negatives are that we don't have the high pressure, and we don't have a super cold airmass. Positives are that the airmass is pretty solid and it's in place...it's not fighting to get across the mountains. But we should always, always question temperatures along the line from Raleigh to GSPThat’s what I was trying to figure out. Where is the cold source? And with a lakes low? Someone smarter than me (which shouldn’t be too hard
UNCSC
Member
Seems very bold to put that out on a Monday night when this is a Friday night event. He may regret that
iGRXY
Member
If you’re under heavy rates, that’s snow
Uh oh, looks like UKMET might be a little more amped then it's 12z run, going more neg too early but let's see where it goes. I'm horrible at projections lol
Looks like those of us SE of RDU are really going to be sweating this one out, as usual. Probably snow, sleet, and mostly freezing rain. Anything from nothing on the GFS to 5 inches on the nutjob Canadian. The thought of tree limbs and power lines snapping does not excite me in the least. We need that track about 50 to 75 miles further SE.
GEFS is basically a hold from 18z
Shes 6 hrs alower
Nope, still positive tilt so should help it slide east, also a touch stronger
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Trends getting worse for Dallas, better trends for the midsouth
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And fizzeling out
Still very euro-y for the ukie
Meh lighter amounts, solid 1-3 across NC but this is a much weaker system then the ICON/CMC/GFS