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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

CaryWx said:
Fair to speculate we need to get past the Sunday/Monday system departure before models have a solid handle on this next one?
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Yep. But even that storm is starting to get a lot of consistency synoptically now, but of course there could always be smaller changes. At this point since it’s more then likely missing need to hope the mid Atlantic scores big with this so we have a nice pack above us
 
The euro AI looks to hammer N. Alabama, N. Georgia, North & Central SC, almost all NC, and southern Virgina. Drops nearly a foot from RDU northeastward towards Virgina Beach. But it's hard to read the Pivotal Maps comparing precip to 850 temps.

48hr QPF:
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edit: And assuming 10:1 ratio
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is noticeably becoming a AI vs deterministic battle right now, all the AI models have hits and have mostly been consistently doing it while the deterministics other than the GFS are meh. EPS was okay though
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It was nice seeing the Euro AI pull out the Baja wave this run when it has been leaving it there with the northern stream dropping too far east
 
Looking at the 850mb low path, it's mostly all snow. Temps are not an issue.

floop-ecmwf-aifs-2025010112-850th-conus.gif
 
wow said:
Looking at the 850mb low path, it's mostly all snow. Temps are not an issue.

floop-ecmwf-aifs-2025010112-850th-conus.gif
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Yeah. It keeps the low fairly weak along the Gulf Coast before it really starts to crank it up off the southeast coast. Gives a good overrunning event on the front side and then 850s lock in on the back side as the low deepens.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah. It keeps the low fairly weak along the Gulf Coast before it really starts to crank it up off the southeast coast. Gives a good overrunning event on the front side and then 850s lock in on the back side as the low deepens.
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Can someone explain to me why does the low in the gulf always mostly weak and can’t be stronger but once it goes off the southeast coast it gets stronger?
 
Snowlover34 said:
Can someone explain to me why does the low in the gulf always mostly weak and can’t be stronger but once it goes off the southeast coast it gets stronger?
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It can certainly deepen in the Gulf, but if it does it’s going to take an inland path and push a warm nose out ahead of it. A weaker low moving along the Gulf coast keeps the warm nose at bay, while still pushing plenty of moisture north for overrunning.
 
wow said:
Looking at the 850mb low path, it's mostly all snow. Temps are not an issue.

floop-ecmwf-aifs-2025010112-850th-conus.gif
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Oh yeah everybody from northern Alabama to north Georgia, the upstate, and western and central NC are easily getting 15:1 ratios on the back half with temps in the upper 20’s. Front half has temps between 30-32 so 10:1 would be sufficient. Easily looking at 10-12” in mby
 
iGRXY said:
Oh yeah everybody from northern Alabama to north Georgia, the upstate, and western and central NC are easily getting 15:1 ratios on the back half with temps in the upper 20’s. Front half has temps between 30-32 so 10:1 would be sufficient. Easily looking at 10-12” in mby
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I’m still learning a lot when it comes to these maps but can someone tell me what sites are most useful to use when learning different maps and temperatures sorry if this is banter guys just need to understand on how to tell the difference between 850 temps for snow
 
Snowlover34 said:
I’m still learning a lot when it comes to these maps but can someone tell me what sites are most useful to use when learning different maps and temperatures sorry if this is banter guys just need to understand on how to tell the difference between 850 temps for snow
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850mb is the elevation with that pressure. Seas level is 1000mb. We look at 850 a lot because there tends to be warm layers (warm nose) at that level that melts the snow and we get sleet or rain instead of snow. 925 also seems to have a lot of warm noses. Needs to be below freezing the whole column from cloud to ground to get good accumulating snow.

Somewhere on this site is a thread with weather 101 stuff, maps and good information to get some groundwork.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
850mb is the elevation with that pressure. Seas level is 1000mb. We look at 850 a lot because there tends to be warm layers (warm nose) at that level that melts the snow and we get sleet or rain instead of snow. 925 also seems to have a lot of warm noses. Needs to be below freezing the whole column from cloud to ground to get good accumulating snow.

Somewhere on this site is a thread with weather 101 stuff, maps and good information to get some groundwork.
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Thanks for the information I really appreciate it
 
jackendrickwx said:
What’s the verification look like on stuff like this anyways?
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I noticed Webb didn’t reply to this but it’s completely experimental and should be used with a grain of salt. I wanna add some things I’m considering. It’s gonna be tough to score two heavy precip events in the same week leaving me to think suppression could actually happen for those in NC this may actually have some legs for some unusual south and east locations…with a sharp cutoff near Charlotte.
 
griteater said:
Oh, there’s a lot worse scenarios lurking out there than that
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Yeah and a few better best case scenarios rumbling around too. Some of that may be a matter of perspective, but there is definitely a potential for a mega event here if things come together the right way.
 
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