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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

When that cold press turns out to be a little less than advertised as it always does, is that what is going to bring the storm further north if the phase happens?
 
BHS1975 said:
Ground temps will be cold too.
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You really couldn't ask for a better time of year to be tracking a storm. I know we all want to see a big snowstorm on every run, but it has never, ever worked that way.

Like you said, ground temps will be great. The sun angle will be great. The post-system environment will be great. This is a real threat, as opposed to what we've had to deal with over the past few years.

We need to step back and really realize how rare it is to have this kind of potential with all the other variables that I mentioned above all perfectly aligned. There is a good chance that someone is going to get a memorable event out of this.
 
Stevo24 said:
When that cold press turns out to be a little less than advertised as it always does, is that what is going to bring the storm further north if the phase happens?
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That is certainly one component, but it’s the northern stream energy diving into the southern stream wave that can cause the system to bomb out and hook north. It’s a tricky setup so that’s why there’s so much run to run variance. The main southern system is there every run now, but various depictions of the northern stream energy are effecting the outcome at the surface. This is one of the reasons that many of us aren’t worried at the moment. Ingredients are there every run lately. Now we wait…
 
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Rain Cold said:
You really couldn't ask for a better time of year to be tracking a storm. I know we all want to see a big snowstorm on every run, but it has never, ever worked that way.

Like you said, ground temps will be great. The sun angle will be great. The post-system environment will be great. This is a real threat, as opposed to what we've had to deal with over the past few years.

We need to step back and really realize how rare it is to have this kind of potential with all the other variables that I mentioned above all perfectly aligned. There is a good chance that someone is going to get a memorable event out of this.
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When we look back in the way back machine we find that big dogs occurred in great patterns, and we also see that zilch occurred in great patterns, lol. But people way back saw some amazing action, so action does happen occasionally in great patterns. People were alive to see rare. Heck, people are alive today who saw rare, and we may see it again. I saw at blizzard in Ga once!

It's been near 70 recently, and that's my first indicator that rare may be on the way. To me rare would be snow to the gutters, but I may have to temper my expectations, lol. The most I've seen down here is 10 1/2 in a spring storm, so realistic rare to me would be better than that with some bone cold behind it, not 70 the next day. And if we get some frozen, and in more than one episode, Jan cold says it won't melt the next day. Good timing would be to bring cold and wet together sometime while I'm still alive :)
 
Fingers crossed!!!

"In a comprehensive performance evaluation against the gold-standard(ECMWF) deterministic system, HRES, GraphCast provided more accurate predictions on more than 90% of 1380 test variables and forecast lead times (see our Science paper for details).Nov 14, 2023"

Screen Shot 2025-01-01 at 7.55.41 PM.png
 
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18z AI drops the wave into S CA, then moves it west out into the Pacific (some runs were doing that yesterday). N Stream drops down - end result is a weak system in the southeast. A follow-up wave drops down and phases with the baja wave which kicks east, but that system is fairly weak too (not shown)

82fUsSR.png
 
rburrel2 said:
Fingers crossed!!!

"In a comprehensive performance evaluation against the gold-standard(ECMWF) deterministic system, HRES, GraphCast provided more accurate predictions on more than 90% of 1380 test variables and forecast lead times (see our Science paper for details).Nov 14, 2023"

View attachment 158537
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For the Euro GraphCast / Google DeepMind (what a name, lol) that burrel posted, here is a loop of 500mb and 850mb temperatures. 0 deg line is where green and yellow touch. First NStream wave misses the baja wave. 2nd wave drops in and phases with it as it kicks out

M6kbIY6.png


gp2rRl9.gif
 
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