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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

With the GEFS there were really 3 members that showed storms for the southeast during the initial time period/wave however there were also 5 other members that showed major storms less than 48 hours later. I couldn’t see but if I had to guess they were either held back in scal or the trailing wave was able to push out and consolidate better. We definitely have a few ways of making this pattern work just gotta wait and see what models hone in on
 
00z and 06z GEFS were definitely much more enthused and had more hits (still not great). EPS is also holding onto the threat. We will see what today brings. Hopefully the changes that Webb says we need to see, will start to happen.
 
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Is the GFS consistently right or wrong? Past 12 runs…


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Webberweather53 said:
We're going to need to see these trends reverse the next few days or this thing is probably toast.

Burying the southern stream wave into the SW US & kicking the long wave axis east like this would probably leave us cold & dry.

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Unfortunately this is exactly what I think happens in this scenario. Timing of the cold push is bad for those North of Pensacola and it will stay a weak low getting shredded as it exits Tx and then OTS
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
06z GFS went back to back with storms this morning and you would think someone died in here
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It’s the morning man, that’s when everyone is always sad around here. 06z gfs was beautiful and aligned nicely with the WPC graphic for slight risk of heavy snow.

Hopeful for more positive trends today!
 
Six Mile Wx said:
Slight improvement on the 6z Euro over the 00z Euro. The low shifted east and possibly more stream interaction.View attachment 158597View attachment 158598
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The orientation of that western ridge axis seems horrible. The euro suite just wants it to tuck in that shortwave and keep it SW right now, and that's not good. I'd hope more and more EPS members in the next couple days start bringing it out, no matter what the clown maps show. Just increase the members that bring it out east. Phasing is a whole other story.

Bright spot is the AI model wants to kick it out. Hopefully we'll see that lead the way.
 
My thing is that I'd really like to see some ensemble support for the solutions that the GFS has been throwing out there (seemingly especially with the 6z GFS over multiple days), but for the most part, I'm staying out of the way outside of the complaint thread that I've used more for fun.

I'm ultimately going to give it a few more days.
 
Rain Cold said:
Marinating
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Honestly don't know if all these "biases" are still legit. All the models, including the Euro, have had major upgrades over the years, all since the hanging back energy biases was first proclaimed.
 
rburrel2 said:
Sorta seems like the big dog scenario is very unlikely at this point... but a weak gulf low with some moisture pulled up our way still has legs.
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SnowNiner said:
The orientation of that western ridge axis seems horrible. The euro suite just wants it to tuck in that shortwave and keep it SW right now, and that's not good. I'd hope more and more EPS members in the next couple days start bringing it out, no matter what the clown maps show. Just increase the members that bring it out east. Phasing is a whole other story.

Bright spot is the AI model wants to kick it out. Hopefully we'll see that lead the
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GeorgiaGirl said:
My thing is that I'd really like to see some ensemble support for the solutions that the GFS has been throwing out there (seemingly especially with the 6z GFS over multiple days), but for the most part, I'm staying out of the way outside of the complaint thread that I've used more for fun.

I'm ultimately going to give it a few more days.
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The cold doesn't seem to be an issue an that is good news
 
NEGaweather said:
I just don’t get the live and die with every model run. This this is a marathon, not a race there’s gonna be upside down you are go crazy if you live off every model run


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That is the secret to this whole hobby. Never too high, never too low. Steady.
 
Metwannabe said:
Honestly don't know if all these "biases" are still legit. All the models, including the Euro, have had major upgrades over the years, all since the hanging back energy biases was first proclaimed.
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Yeah, I've been wondering that too. 🤷‍♂️
 
Metwannabe said:
Honestly don't know if all these "biases" are still legit. All the models, including the Euro, have had major upgrades over the years, all since the hanging back energy biases was first proclaimed.
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i agree, i am dubious of really any "bias" that likely has origins from the bush administration
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
My thing is that I'd really like to see some ensemble support for the solutions that the GFS has been throwing out there (seemingly especially with the 6z GFS over multiple days), but for the most part, I'm staying out of the way outside of the complaint thread that I've used more for fun.

I'm ultimately going to give it a few more days.
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The GEFS almost always follows the op, 1300 or others can explain it better, but the op just isn't that disconnected from it's ens. When the ens don't even support the op, that's a red flag imo more so than usual
 
Metwannabe said:
Honestly don't know if all these "biases" are still legit. All the models, including the Euro, have had major upgrades over the years, all since the hanging back energy biases was first proclaimed.
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You just dont see busts like you did when I started with this outside of maybe extra QPF, a slightly bit stronger warm nose or an FGEN band overperforming.
 
BullCityWx said:
You just dont see busts like you did when I started with this outside of maybe extra QPF, a slightly bit stronger warm nose or an FGEN band overperforming.
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i agree for the most part, but 2 of raleigh's last 3 big snows, 1/17/2018 and 1/22/2022 (may be slightly off on the dates) rose from the ashes from flizzards to be become WSW eligible events within the last 48 hours of the storm
 
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