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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

rburrel2 said:
Sorta seems like the big dog scenario is very unlikely at this point... but a weak gulf low with some moisture pulled up our way still has legs.
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I agree completely and as I said yesterday I have no problem with that.
 
We can also get one of these weaker/solid storms even if the cut off hangs back. All we need is the northern stream to dive deep and further west, and for the 50/50 and heights over the Northeast to relax/be a bit weaker. Which is what happened with the mid-atlantic storm coming up.
 
rburrel2 said:
We can also get one of these weaker/solid storms even if the cut off hangs back. All we need is the northern stream to dive deep and further west, and for the 50/50 and heights over the Northeast to relax/be a bit weaker. Which is what happened with the mid-atlantic storm coming up.
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Yes, we’d still be in the game if that northern jet stream would dive to the Gulf of Texas!
 
Metwannabe said:
The GEFS almost always follows the op, 1300 or others can explain it better, but the op just isn't that disconnected from it's ens. When the ens don't even support the op, that's a red flag imo more so than usual
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It's situational dependent. In a more simple setup, the ops and ensembles do tend to agree (to a fault IMO, especially the GEFS). With a more complex situation where phasing is involved, the lower resolution of the GEFS can be problematic and so I wouldn't necessarily be too concerned about it not showing a signal. The bigger concern as has been noted, is with the larger synoptic setup - namely, the western ridge orientation. Storm-specific, mesoscale details like frontogenetically-enhanced bands, deformation banding, ptypes, etc. are not ensembles strong suite to begin with and in a phasing situation, they become even less useful IMO (especially the GEFS).
 
Much better look with our southwest energy on the Icon. The trough orientation that @griteater has been mentioning was much better for the energy sliding down instead of pinching off and getting buried. Let's see what the rest of 12Z brings us!
1736348400-mMov7Ie9wB0.png
 
Now since we are getting some consistency up top this is the trend we need to continue, upper trough slows and southern wave speeds up. Honestly, doable because in the past, the upper stream normally slows which usually burns us by also slowing CAA. Now also the norm is we trend to right at the precipice yet no cigar so that is that.

trend-icon-2025010212-f156.500hv.conus.gif
 
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Arcc said:
Now sense we are getting some consistency up top this is the trend we need to continue, upper trough slows and southern wave speeds up. Honestly, doable because in the past, the upper stream normally slows which usually burns us by also slowing CAA. Now also the norm is we trend to right at the precipice yet now cigar so that is that.

View attachment 158619
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Those are some favorable changes on the icon especially with the Baja low moving east


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rburrel2 said:
We can also get one of these weaker/solid storms even if the cut off hangs back. All we need is the northern stream to dive deep and further west, and for the 50/50 and heights over the Northeast to relax/be a bit weaker. Which is what happened with the mid-atlantic storm coming up.
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Probably a better shot at some snow across the SE. Basically a 2018ish setup with probably a stripe of 1-2” across the south.
 
ILMRoss said:
i agree for the most part, but 2 of raleigh's last 3 big snows, 1/17/2018 and 1/22/2022 (may be slightly off on the dates) rose from the ashes from flizzards to be become WSW eligible events within the last 48 hours of the storm
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Dare we mention December 2017 which was a few flurries close to the gulf coast four days away.

Had me fooled. I had completely written that one off.
 
wow said:
I'm quite content with the way the models are behaving. It's expected. The cutoff low ain't happening. Trough east of HI .. nothing is retrograding back to the baja.

I think we need a board therapist sometimes however. lol
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Yeah this isn’t the kind of pattern where we get big snows here in NM. The pacific pattern is fine but we usually need a SE ridge in place to keep the upper low locked in.

Generously a flurry blizzard for me
 
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