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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

jrips27 said:
CMC is a gulf coast special
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Honestly, I will say that this and the ICON look is perfect.

Just want it to start trending back to the north when you get within 7...'scuse me, probably 5 days.

Need to at the very least get the EPS to trend back towards being favorable, as it looked solid in spite of the Euro not really having a storm.
 
malak05 said:
The GFS ensembles should be interesting I bet we get several runs of which that energy holds together thru SE alot better.
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Guessing what the ensembles are going to show (or any model run for that matter) is a fool's errand.

But just for funsies I bet we're going to see a few beefy members this go-round.
 
Pulling my two cents in ... last week locally, it wasn't supposed to be that rainy of a week in the Lowcountry of SC ... however, waves of overperformance rained Supreme, netting well over 4 times what was initially expected in the rainfall department.

So much energy flying around. I think what we're seeing with wave 1 right now with stronger depictions needs to get resolved and out of the way WRT to what will ultimately fall in place with wave 2. Plus we're likely getting undersampling with some key s/w in sparse data regions that will ultimately continue this wild swing of next to nil to big dog outputs. Let's get the players on the field in the next few days then we can ultimately hone it down to a better idea.

Right now, IMHO, we're seeing a lot of shades of Feb 2010 setting up ...
 
that secondary energy diving in did us no favors

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cardinal rule- the bigger the trough the slower it is. that's not vibes, that's literal math

that energy diving in turns our system messy and really slows it down instead of creating a clean wave

still lots of pages to turn with this
 
ILMRoss said:
that secondary energy diving in did us no favors

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cardinal rule- the bigger the trough the slower it is. that's not vibes, that's literal math

that energy diving in turns our system messy and really slows it down instead of creating a clean wave

still lots of pages to turn with this
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Yeah that's the bugger. You fix one issue and then move to the next lol. It drills the back side of the trough back into Mexico holding it at a positive tilt. But the trend is encouraging.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I worry about some people that want to see this thing wound up and north at this range. I’ve been here too long to want that 8 days out.
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The part that has most in a tizzy is the ensemble means dropping off and modeling showing our prime energy getting left behind for the most part.

If or when the models start kicking the energy out in a more consolidated form, faster, is when the big storm runs will start back.

I really want to see this on the ensembles starting today at least a few members.

The energy is still over Russia so we have a couple days to get a good picture on the operational.
 
Shawn said:
The part that has most in a tizzy is the ensemble means dropping off and modeling showing our prime energy getting left behind for the most part.

If or when the models start kicking the energy out in a more consolidated form, faster, is when the big storm runs will start back.

I really want to see this on the ensembles starting today.
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I still think today is too soon. We've seen some solid trends with the 12z suite so far. I'd say IF we can get some more of those net positives, the ensembles should pick up by the end of the weekend. Fingers crossed!
 
packfan98 said:
I still think today is too soon. We've seen some solid trends with the 12z suite so far. I'd say IF we can get some more of those net positives, the ensembles should pick up by the end of the weekend. Fingers crossed!
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We are at odds here with this one. I need at least a couple big dogs on the ensembles and think the operational will catch up when the energy is within our observational network.

If none of the ensembles are working out, it worries me that just small changes wouldn't be enough, since that's what the members are meant to do.
 
Stormsfury said:
Pulling my two cents in ... last week locally, it wasn't supposed to be that rainy of a week in the Lowcountry of SC ... however, waves of overperformance rained Supreme, netting well over 4 times what was initially expected in the rainfall department.

So much energy flying around. I think what we're seeing with wave 1 right now with stronger depictions needs to get resolved and out of the way WRT to what will ultimately fall in place with wave 2. Plus we're likely getting undersampling with some key s/w in sparse data regions that will ultimately continue this wild swing of next to nil to big dog outputs. Let's get the players on the field in the next few days then we can ultimately hone it down to a better idea.

Right now, IMHO, we're seeing a lot of shades of Feb 2010 setting up ...
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I think a lot of folks would be happy with that outcome…. Maybe moving a bit slower.
 
Shawn said:
We are at odds here with this one. I need at least a couple big dogs on the ensembles and think the operational will catch up when the energy is within our observational network.

If none of the ensembles are working out, it worries me that just small changes wouldn't be enough, since that's what the members are meant to do.
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I agree it's worrisome how awful the ensemble support has been, but it looks like the 12z GEFS might be cooking at 180hrs. Definitely more members with potential at 5h.
 
Downeastnc said:
15 yr old me would have been loving this look on the 5 day business planner.....all that blue and pink deep in TX was what I looked for in the 5 day planner.

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This is so true; I used to get so excited to see that look in the 90s. It seemed like it would just move East like clockwork. I always thought if Central TX was getting snow we could count on getting it a day or two later. Now it's either a cutter and stays West of the apps or it suppresses and dies. Not sure what happened to that 90s pattern.
 
wow said:
Yeah that's the bugger. You fix one issue and then move to the next lol. It drills the back side of the trough back into Mexico holding it at a positive tilt. But the trend is encouraging.
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to be clear i dont think this is negative necessarily, this was a muted run and it still had a lot of potential. the gfs not putting the wave out around baja is encouraging. the positions of these shortwaves diving down will change. frankly i think we have more than enough energy coming down and i'm hoping in future runs it trends weaker and less robust which will discourage it from becoming a texas bowling ball
 
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