Not necessarily overrunning is driven off warm air advection in the mid levels
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
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iGRXY
Member
No you're going to have more of a warm nose. The whole concept of overrunning is WAA overrunning a cold lower level. Mixed bag precip is usual but you tend to get front end FGEN that can really rack up the snow quickly before changing over similar to Jan 2022.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah these are usually just fine for most of us in the SE US. Just need to see over the next few days which way the large scale pattern goes. Aside from getting nothing obviously, need to figure out if this pattern will favor a big miller a type bomb, a classic southern slider overrunning event, or maybe something in between. Not sure yet, tho the Miller A bomb scenario has been the favored one lately
SnowmasterATL
Member
Huge improvement !!
rburrel2
Member
Last panel of the 12z JMA... Is it kicking out or no? Looks a lot like the 12z GFS, but better.
rburrel2
Member
12z Euro AI left the cutoff behind(barely), but is a huge improvement on the slider event.
Bigedd09
Member
All major ensembles have a signal for a southeast winter storm from Texas to North Carolina. The footprint looks like a classic southern slider type of event where just about everyone gets involved. We are in great position right now especially if positive trends can continue.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I'm definitely a novice, and there have been some good responses but I would just add that without a warm nose we tend to get either snow or rain. With warm noses, it tends to get complex, based on where the warm nose and how thick. You can get snow melting then refreezing to sleet or partial melting with graupel, or melting to liquid then refrezzing on contact (freezing rain), etc. With overrunning the thicknesses of layers of air is still important; if the cold layer is thick enough it can refreeze to sleet or stay all snow until the warm layer becomes too thick; so we often end with sleet or rain/freezing rain in those scenarios. I think some of our biggest snowfalls have been overrunning events. Long ways to go with this one but I think at go time I'd like to see it a bit stronger for more precip, but not too strong to lead to too much NW movement or a big push of warm air from the gulf.
I really feel like this is set up where a lot of us can score a significant snowfall with a southern slider/overrunning event, especially with the snowpack that gets put down to our north over the next few days. Just a weak low moving along the Gulf coast, a solid cold air mass in place. Would it be a historic storm? No, but one of those can very easily drop 4-6”+ over a large area
rburrel2
Member
So, Here is the mean forecast error by day for all the AI models compared to the Euro(IFS). Lower number means they are more accurate....
That Chinese "FuXi" model is crushing all the others including the Euro... Unfortunately I don't think it's publicly available.
That Chinese "FuXi" model is crushing all the others including the Euro... Unfortunately I don't think it's publicly available.
iGRXY
Member
Jut want to point out that if we trend to overrunning, You better hope and pray you're not in the bullseye until at most 24 hours out. there's always a NW trend and much larger northside than what gets picked up. Also if you're expecting to see a resolution, these things especially can not show up until we get into the short range.
that's pretty funny.
"our model is crushing it"
"that's awesome. wonderful. can we see it?"
"no"
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“A weather model, localized in your kitchen, at this time of day and at this latitude”
We are hanging on but continue to lose eps members. Looking at roughly 20/50 snowing snowfall for BHM. Still several members to the south that are close. I for one like where we stand at this range with precip to our south hugging the coast. Hopefully the positive trends with the energy can continue and we can boost these numbers back up.
Is it funny that the name isn’t far from faux? Hahaha
The overrunning that is being modeled with various models & suites reminds me of a very similar setup in 88.
Would be great for the 85 to 40 crowd in the Carolinas bc of orographic lift in that area with the way the lift would hit the southern blue ridge range wringing out every ounce of moisture into a very steep & stout could layer.
Also would be very good south of that area also.
It's a way to get a board wide snow from Texas to the Carolinas and everyone would be happy!
Btw not forecasting similar temps or snowfall amounts but the way it's unfolding on some of the modeling reminds me very much of 88.
I've seen Webber elude to this at least a time or 2 recently!
Would be great for the 85 to 40 crowd in the Carolinas bc of orographic lift in that area with the way the lift would hit the southern blue ridge range wringing out every ounce of moisture into a very steep & stout could layer.
Also would be very good south of that area also.
It's a way to get a board wide snow from Texas to the Carolinas and everyone would be happy!
Btw not forecasting similar temps or snowfall amounts but the way it's unfolding on some of the modeling reminds me very much of 88.
I've seen Webber elude to this at least a time or 2 recently!
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FuXi was publicly available for some time and it's actually terrible. The architecture for it is great at producing a good looking RMSE score, but terrible in actual usefulness. Way over-smoothed and seemingly overfitted. ECMWF was running it in-house for some time, but stopped running it because it's not useful.
Latest GraphCast GFS. Nice hit for the SE
Man 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’d be hard press to believe the precip is that light with a look that good at 500mb
Latest CPC analog.
If it's moving fast....
RollTide18
Member
Do you have Montgomery?
IMO, am overrunning/southern slider set up is the best way to to see a winter storm over the whole southeast from Texas to the Carolinas and Virginia. Obviously January 1988 is probably the best example, but also January 2011 and February 2010 would be others. This could be a set up that produces significant snowfall across a wide area like those storms and then possibly bomb out off the southeast coast to really ramp things up for the central and eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia like January 2002.
NEGaweather
Member
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SimeonNC
Member
When was the last time we had any kind of a southern slider type storm?
Does anyone have the ensemble models for Baton Rouge?
NEGaweather
Member
How do Columbia SC stands? Can you post for them too?
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NEGaweather
Member
I could be wrong but the last really good one was probably Jan 2011. It’s about as good as it gets
Still looking pretty good. I think Columbia SC may finally break this long snow drought.
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Of course we had better storms. Look at the size of those letter fonts.
Yeah this would have been the last true one. Every flake stuck as well because we didn’t see temps above freezing for almost 3 days prior.
SnowmasterATL
Member
I still get emotional about this one...lol. My friend (at the time...long story) was at Walmart in Fayetteville, GA and when we got the car, the snow started pounding. it was crazy driving in it. We got to our homes safely. It snowed for like 3 hours. I decided to go to bed, and then I heard the sleet pinging all night long against my window. Woke Up, and it was winter wonderland with snow and sleet on the ground, but the sleet change back over to snow. The best snow/sleet combo I ever seen and system outside of the Blizzard of 93. Sigh! I will take that redux anyday of this winter!
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I can’t believe this storm was 14 years ago. It’s one of my all time favorites.
