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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Myfrotho704_ said:
I’d be more concerned about this run being to amped and the subtropical ridge being to strong ahead with weaker confluence then suppression looking at this run
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This verbatim was my concern, but there’s so much low level cold in place and still a lot of confluence for a big winter storm
 
Lost confluence there as it moved east. New look for the American. Lil ridge trying to nose it’s way southward through the lakesIMG_0813.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Lost confluence there as it moved east. New look for the American. Lil ridge trying to nose it’s way southward through the lakesView attachment 158768
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It took longer than I thought it would to kick east this run

Improvement here from a phasing standpoint at the moment of truth when the wave is in Yuma, AZ. Upstream ridge in the NE Pac trending west and a little more amplified

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I’m mostly just pleased overall that we continue to see a system popping up on the GFS in consecutive runs. Despite different looks with the energy out west.

Sure seems like someone on this forum is gonna get a good winter storm out of this timeframe
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Lost confluence there as it moved east. New look for the American. Lil ridge trying to nose it’s way southward through the lakesView attachment 158768
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We need to lose some confluence and give this thing some room to breathe. We ain't raining. Even worse case(with amperage/waa) we would get a cold ice storm, imo.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Now is the part where somebody talks me of the ledge with the ol’ “that’s not ice, soundings support snow.” comment
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Understand. But it still put your area around 2 inches of snow before the ice and slop encrust it to stay longer on the ground. But yes, this would suck bc many trees are weakened from Helene.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This verbatim was my concern, but there’s so much low level cold in place and still a lot of confluence for a big winter storm
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Don’t like this trend of heights rising across the SE. don’t know if that’s a result of an amp’d low or the confluence trending eastward or what but it’s not doing us favors
 
TheBatman said:
This would probably be most extreme north. Expect something in the middle of this.
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I think we could absolutely see a more northward solution than this. I wish that wave would kick out earlier. And least it's actually on the move now.
 
The lack of confluence in this particular scenario is what would allow high pressure to slide east into the carolinas and fill the void between our storm and the 50/50 low. I guess my point is, there’s more than one way to get frozen precipitation for the Carolinas here
 
Lots of different options out there. Some like the spire/GFS throw the main bowling ball ahead the energy that dives out west, and gives us a more classic overrunning setup IMG_2957.pngIMG_2956.png
Then you’ve had the on and off solutions of a big gulf-coastal bomb, which results from just the right amount of digging and phase for both the Baja wave (a weaker one seemingly helps on the graphcast) and digging energy out west and tilting it perfectly. IMG_2938.gif
Then you have the other solutions of tossing the Baja wave out into the pacific and rather progressing the digging energy east with weak tilt and just to much movement, which results in the suppression. IMO I think we’re headed away from that look. The overrunning look and miller A look both yields a winter storm, but the overrunning look likely would mean bigger warm nose issues given heavy WAA which is often the forcing mechanism for those types of setups
 
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