12z AIFS snowfall is in.. 
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Spire, kinda screws areas further east, sort of like the 12z GFS, but still a good run overall
Yeah that's option #2 Fro - sacrifice the Baja wave, and then drop the next wave sharply down into the S Plains for the storm
RollTide18
Member
Not liking that warm push for the areas down south
Yep same here. The longer it takes to move east, the more cold air feed we lose. This not suppression is how we lose in MS, AL and GA IMO.
iGRXY
Member
Uhh oh …iGRXY
Member
Yeah this isn’t going to go well
Nah I think the GFS is fine. It’s wounding up there. Unless the energy that picks it up ends up way further east. A little similar to 06z
rburrel2
Member
It may not be bad, imo. We sort of need it to pinch off and occlude a little early on like the Euro AI is showing, but then hopefully get picked back up later on. The 12z GFS had it a little too far out in front I think.
iGRXY
Member
This is either going to get trapped in the SW or be a wound up bowling ball going east.
I’d be more concerned about this run being to amped and the subtropical ridge being to strong ahead with weaker confluence then suppression looking at this run
Chattownsnow
Member
If this thing would just dig into New Mexico or Arizona instead of Southern California that would be great
Flow is very suppressive out front. Should be Deep South type hit if it works out
Could be a big run here loading up. Digging Energy in WCAN incoming 
Storm5
Member
This run looks fine
iGRXY
Member
We are likely about to get a big bowling ball. Just need the trough to stay positive as it moves east to keep it from cutting
Mahomeless
Member
Probably about to get your juiced up monster in the Deep South….
This one may cut….
iGRXY
Member
This turned out better than it initially looked
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Literally would be the biggest snowstorm in decades here.
Don’t tease me bro
Don’t tease me bro
What a storm!!!
JLL1973
Member
Could be a big cutter
Forevertothee
Member
Based on all the runs today (since the early runs) from GFS, ICON, GEM, and AI's, can we assume today's trends have been very good and a threat for Jan 9-10 is looking more likely for areas of South from TX to Carolina's in your opinion?
iGRXY
Member
That confluence and raised heights over the Great Lakes means we could be looking real good here in the CAD regions
Took a long time for it to come out of the SW, so it did lift and warm up
packfan98
Moderator
Trough orientation for this setup is not conducive for cutting. It really hasn't been on the table as a possibility in what we've seen depicted so far.
This is the picture of how we lose and get soaked.
iGRXY
Member
Storm5
Member
Not gonna cut still too much confluence in the NE. I'll roll with this look all day living in the SOUTH
Messy
Bigedd09
Member
RollTide18
Member
Took a long time for it to come out of the SW, so it did lift and warm up
Yuck
Looks great for NC though
JLL1973
Member
Yes you are correct
