Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[KyloG]

First GEFS run in a couple of days that's picking up some members with snow in the deep south

 

[wow]

Love it

 

[Webberweather53]

This is such an unstable tug-of-war between the upper low getting trapped and retrograding underneath the positively tilted anticyclone to the north (usually a good pattern for me) and it getting tugged east into the trough over the eastern us.

No room for much of anything in between here, which likely leaves me in New Mexico without much in the snow department and a very fickle pattern down the line

 

[malak05]

View attachment 158667

A little bit of everything some big dogs, some suppressed (Which everyone loves in this window), and some late bloomers more toward Sunday...

 

[Oconeexman]

Wow! I’m surprised by the lack of folks in N. GA, Upstate SC, and WNC. Folks in S. Appalachia must use the other forum more?

Don't think it updates too often..not sure.
I filled it out yesterday and am not on there yet.

 

[BullCityWx]

Aint gonna happen on the 12z euro

Edit: at least its raining in Texas.

Edit the second: I may be an idiot

Edit the third: Nope, I was right

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

View attachment 158672
View attachment 158673

The trend is our friend

 

[Ollie Williams]

Big changes with the partial phase

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah these are major shifts back in our favor

 

[wow]

Trends my friends

 

[NEGaweather]

Really like the trends today


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[Hoss_Bonaventure]

I just joined, can someone explain why these two connecting is good? I live in upstate SC and really would like to have a good snow vs flurries.

 

[Icestorm336]

Wow! I’m surprised by the lack of folks in N. GA, Upstate SC, and WNC. Folks in S. Appalachia must use the other forum more?

The mountains have there own dedicated forum on the other site so that where most have stayed. Sorry for banter.

 

[KyloG]

We dont like this?

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Don't think it updates too often..not sure.
I filled it out yesterday and am not on there yet.

I did today.

 

[Snowfan]

Good to see the Euro trending back in our favor. Let's hope the trends continue!

 

[jrips27]

Don't think it updates too often..not sure.
I filled it out yesterday and am not on there yet.

You were added yesterday! I usually update it once or twice a day but to this point I’m only adding people if they fill out the form.

 

[CaryWx]

View attachment 158676Yeah these are major shifts back in our favor

fro, can you explain to the more feeble weather minded? I see the cold trough retreating eastward too.

 

[1300m]

 

[KyloG]

GEFS 24 hr precip day 9'ish...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC ens is coming back as well. Every model at 12z has shown improvement

 

[CaryWx]

GEFS 24 hr precip day 9'ish...

View attachment 158680

6" snow mean for here in river city?

 

[mydoortotheworld]

View attachment 158676Yeah these are major shifts back in our favor

I’m kinda hung up on the eastern trough retreating somewhat further east.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

View attachment 158681View attachment 158682CMC ens is coming back as well. Every model at 12z has shown improvement

This is what we need, glad to see it and hope it keeps up


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[Myfrotho704_]

I’m kinda hung up on the eastern trough retreating somewhat further east.

Yeah noticed that as well, as long as the EPS looks okay in the cold department I’m fine, but it’s a interesting observation nonetheless

 

[beanskip]

Old man Skip checking into say: I can't tell you how many times in my 20 years in N.C. I bemoaned a suppressed 6-10 day model run, only to sweat it out at the end over ending up too far north.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

We gotta a lot of time to bag this thing, many model runs to go…don’t pour concrete on one model run.


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[CaryWx]

Yeah noticed that as well, as long as the EPS looks okay in the cold department I’m fine, but it’s a interesting observation nonetheless

The only thing that really worries me there with that trough movement is allowing a spun cutter to the west

 

[jeremyt]

The only thing that really worries me there with that trough movement is allowing a spun cutter to the west

I’ll start getting worried/excited once the energy makes it onshore!

 

[Pops]

Euro continues the good trends!!

 

[strongwxnc]

Old man Skip checking into say: I can't tell you how many times in my 20 years in N.C. I bemoaned a suppressed 6-10 day model run, only to sweat it out at the end over ending up too far north.

Bet the streak until it ends.. Right

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS says we’re back in business

 

[Webberweather53]

EPS showing more of an overrunning type event than big miller A bomb

 

[Bigedd09]

EPS says we’re back in business View attachment 158686View attachment 158687

If these trends continue on the ensembles the entire southeast is going to see a big-time winter storm. All the ingredients are there.

 

[Webberweather53]

Sure, I’ll definitely take some snow ️

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS showing more of an overrunning type event than big miller A bomb

Yeah was about to comment on that. The overall look is changing to a flatter look with an overrunning style pattern with constant energy digging and ejecting creating overrunning precip. If we change to this style of a pattern then I’ll take a more suppressed look given what overrunning is driven off of

 

[Forevertothee]

EPS showing more of an overrunning type event than big miller A bomb

which would limit the dreaded warm nose, correct?

 

[tractor girl]

Don't think it updates too often..not sure.
I filled it out yesterday and am not on there yet.

The mountains have there own dedicated forum on the other site so that where most have stayed. Sorry for banter.

What's the other site?

 

[CaryWx]

which would limit the dreaded warm nose, correct?

Yes, but not sure how wide the transition areas can be (zr,ip, sn). In other words not sharp cutoffs of rain to snow etc. Someone here keep me honest.