• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

GEFS is headed the exact direction we want it to go. Rising heights in the GOA which results in earlier digging for the secondary energy that dives down In the Rockies/western plains. Almost gonna bet this GEFS run in the SE is gonna double or perhaps triple hits. If you look at many past events in the SE, the strong sharp western ridge is always a feature IMG_2958.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
GEFS is headed the exact direction we want it to go. Rising heights in the GOA which results in earlier digging for the secondary energy that dives out. Almost gonna bet this GEFS run in the SE is gonna double or perhaps triple hits View attachment 158783
Click to expand...
Oh that GOA trend. Delight
 
rburrel2 said:
We're also 180hrs out from the event starting... It ain't day 4.... but it ain't hour 300 either. We're just a day or two from at least locking on to a "there will be a storm" mode. I hope!
Click to expand...
Yep those se precip maps are under 1 week away from start time. Fastly approaching 120/5 day mark.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lots of different options out there. Some like the spire/GFS throw the main bowling ball ahead the energy that dives out west, and gives us a more classic overrunning setup View attachment 158776View attachment 158777
Then you’ve had the on and off solutions of a big gulf-coastal bomb, which results from just the right amount of digging and phase for both the Baja wave (a weaker one seemingly helps on the graphcast) and digging energy out west and tilting it perfectly. View attachment 158779
Then you have the other solutions of tossing the Baja wave out into the pacific and rather progressing the digging energy east with weak tilt and just to much movement, which results in the suppression. IMO I think we’re headed away from that look. The overrunning look and miller A look both yields a winter storm, but the overrunning look likely would mean bigger warm nose issues given heavy WAA which is often the forcing mechanism for those types of setups
Click to expand...
The GFS run somehow managed to combine the 2 main options for a decent storm. It phased the northern stream into the SW wave. The phase was sloppy with the SW wave not fully kicking out...then it dropped in the next northern stream wave fairly forcefully thru the central U.S. and into the SE, reinvigorating the storm thru the Carolinas

YlY2V8Y.gif


Mi7qEPK.gif
 
griteater said:
The GFS run somehow managed to combine the 2 main options for a decent storm. It phased the northern stream into the SW wave. The phase was sloppy with the SW wave not fully kicking out...then it dropped in the next northern stream wave fairly forcefully thru the central U.S. and into the SE, reinvigorating the storm thru the Carolinas

YlY2V8Y.gif


Mi7qEPK.gif
Click to expand...
Nice hit <3
 
mydoortotheworld said:
Don’t like this trend of heights rising across the SE. don’t know if that’s a result of an amp’d low or the confluence trending eastward or what but it’s not doing us favors
Click to expand...
as the four corners shortwave/ULL trends stronger it will trigger height rises ahead of it. pretty textbook.

tbh i still favor that feature going away and going for the coastal instead of messing with some sort of overrunning option but i think it's becoming clearer that there's going to be "an interaction" back there we are going to need to deal with
 
It’s really a where you are on the map for what you prefer. Overrunning would favor north Georgia, CAD areas of Nc and SC as the warm nose would be a big factor for the I20 folks. Obviously a big coastal is going to get more of the board involved. Personally I still think this thing would be limited on just how far north it’s going to go because the confluence at least on that GFS run is legit. With overrunning you’re going to get more moisture on the northside but I doubt it erodes the low level cold as much as people think with how much cold air we have north of us and how strong the 50/50 is to drive it south. Now that also means we likely are headed to way more of an ice threat for people vs a snow storm also.
 
1735861427188.png
like, at this point, i would rather this thing pinch off and become orphaned around baja so the next round of energy can come through unfettered. right now there's messy interaction. the peas are touching the mashed potatoes
 
Such small baby steps on the ensembles, but thankfully they are real steps toward what we want. Love to see the western ridge tick west and orient more vertically. Number of hits though are still so few and most are whiffs which is still concerning. But hopefully overnight we'll continue to have a steady increase in hits.
 
SnowNiner said:
Such small baby steps on the ensembles, but thankfully they are real steps toward what we want. Love to see the western ridge tick west and orient more vertically. Number of hits though are still so few and most are whiffs which is still concerning. But hopefully overnight we'll continue to have a steady increase in hits.
Click to expand...
Now that the models are starting to pick up on a storm the hits will come. This weekend is going to light this place up. But I believe it will be baby steps until Saturday/Sunday.
 
The sheer fact that some of the ensembles are still showing decent hits is huge in this time frame as this is usually the period when so many storms that tend to produce always go magically away only to return in the 3-5 day window leading up to the event. This is the first event that I've been able to consistently track for my location since January 17, 2018, I definitely agree that this place is going to possibly go into "subscribers only" mode extremely soon due to the site traffic.
 
A board wide snow would be a wonderful thing. My house in the Chattanooga area is super snow starved. It was disheartening last January sitting at 33° and a rain/snow mix before turning to all rain, while 8 miles to our north as a bird flies was receiving snow amounts from 3"-8". Some local mountains towards Dunlap received a foot of snow while we were blanked. Let's reel this one in.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top