iGRXY
Member
Gulf special
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Gulf special
It’s sloppy with the NStream phasing, but a little more energy dropping down
NCSNOW
Member
Climb , not dig pig. Notice more energy right behind it
This is not a bad look. Ideally, you want it to phase right about the Mississippi river or just west.
SnowmasterATL
Member
Low heading towards Tampa...light snow over Central GA
NCSNOW
Member
Another round coming on its heels
Edit heads to Mex.
Edit heads to Mex.
Yeah it really misses with the phasing from the northern stream, so a weak system. I don’t mind this overall look at all though
What a look hot damn
iGRXY
Member
honestly everything was improved this run even with it being suppressed. More ridging out west that was oriented better, stronger -NAO, and we at least kicked the S/W east va dumping it in the Baja
SnowmasterATL
Member
The wave is heading towards Cuba...lol
NCSNOW
Member
All that snowcover to our north really helping us out that run.
Suppressed..
Best signal for a big time southern snow in several years.
Suppression is your friend at this range.
Best signal for a big time southern snow in several years.
Suppression is your friend at this range.
It’s plenty cold lol the phase sucked
My question is how far down the road do we get before we start worrying about suppression instead of encouraging it?
Getting more of the blue arrow with the western ridge was the most encouraging part of this run to me!
iGRXY
Member
CMC will be suppressed also. Northern stream is well south and round up
Yeah I liked it overall, it just completely botched the phasing of the waves dropping down. My only issue was that it tried to kick the system east too quick. It needs to ‘marinate’ in the SW just a bit before kicking east and getting hit hard with northern stream phasing
Shaggy
Member
Never really. I'd want it suppressed until inside 36 hours really then watch the NW trend work in your favor
NCSNOW
Member
Yea I always learned right as it passes east of the mouth of Miss Riv for the phase bench mark here. Prefearably a track bmfrom there to between jax- sav an ots
Well, you can rest assured that the Euro will marinate it all you want.
iGRXY
Member
Very true but I’d much rather have a timing issue vs losing the entire wave to California lol
Keep this going, we'll be in business (assuming nothing else goes wrong - dangerous).
Yeah I'm getting greedy wanting it a tad west haha.
iGRXY
Member
Really the only thing that was “bad” is just the timing issue. Everything else was much better from the west coast to Greenland
NCSNOW
Member
Bingo. And why the opinion sacrificing storm 1 to our north would be the saving grace for this one.
Very true. I still remember 2/12/10 storm that started that NW trend only 24 hours out and took me from what was forecast as a chance of flurries to a 5” storm.
Inside of 120 hours, if we’re still this suppressed, I’d be worried.
On the other hand, if models start showing major snow in the next run or so and stick with it, id be concerned that we end up too warm. Or that things trend the other direction.
Absolutely. Honestly the runs earlier today had me sweating a little. I’ve been burned far too many times around four days when you look to get ten inches to end up with one and half inches of rain with a little sleet at the end to stick in your tears.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
We played with suppression last year and it stayed. I personally want to see suppression gone asap. However there's just too much energy flying around.
If you want some eye candy, there should be at least a couple ensemble members with big hits.
NCSNOW
Member
The time stamp the wave just started ejecting will be at the rubber meets the road 120 hr mark in 48 more hours. Sat-Sun model runs will be telling. It was snowing in Houston at hour 168 just then
I was about to say I distinctly remember a “storm” we tracked one year that we said till the end it would trend NW and it never did. Unfortunately we’ve seen both sides of wanting suppression and hoping for the old NW trend and never getting it and being in the spotlight for a week only to watch as we get a brisk cold rain from the NW trend. No clue where I want to stand anymore
. Although I do agree, with so much energy flying around I would lean more of the side of suppression for the time being and almost hope it starts adjusting in the 5-6 day range
I don’t personally think we’re going to have an issue with suppression due to overwhelming cold dropping down as we no longer have the -EPO ridge bridge with the -NAO that was previously dropping colder air in. Rather, suppression would be simply tied to whether the NStream and southwest wave can meet and talk to each other. If no, we just get a weak low or no low in the gulf (which would be another form of suppression so to speak)
