EPS still looks more than interesting. There are several of these that are near misses from being much bigger. Anytime we have a large precip field to our south this far out along with lots of cold air, it has all my attention.
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
EPS still looks more than interesting. There are several of these that are near misses from being much bigger. Anytime we have a large precip field to our south this far out along with lots of cold air, it has all my attention.
NEGaweather
Member
People need to calm down and enjoy tracking this. Most potential we’ve had in years.
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NEGaweather
Member
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I wouldn't worry @lexxnchloe , WAA will get us, plenty of chilly rain..
I posted in the wrong thread. So many
Here are where all 3 major models stand currently
Not sure the downstream implications but if you’ll notice the Euro is the only model totally cutting that baja wave off and is holding it back 500 miles further west than the Canadian and American models
Here are where all 3 major models stand currently
Not sure the downstream implications but if you’ll notice the Euro is the only model totally cutting that baja wave off and is holding it back 500 miles further west than the Canadian and American models
Years ago, I remember the Euro had a bias to hold shortwaves back in the Southwest. It may have been fixed, but it’s worth mentioning
Known bias of the Euro, leaving things buried in the SW...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It definitely still likes to drop troughs too much out here in NM from time to time.
Good point. Just glancing at the images when the euro cuts the Baja wave off from everything it allows the ridge to the west to steepen which may be why this system is so much further south when it gets to the Atlantic side. Suppression. Worth watching I think
We see these fantasy storms every winter but we’ve been getting insane runs for about a week now for our period of interest and it hasn’t just been one random run. Hard not to think this actually could be the one. Hopefully come Sunday we’ll have a much clearer picture.
StoneColdHeel
Member
And just like that the GFS is back in all it's glory.
rburrel2
Member
The jma is pants bursting good at hr192
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Slight chance of heavy snow is probably fair.
jasonbh0109
Member
First post: Longtime Lurker (from 2010 when burger use to call PBP on the other site. I have enjoyed following all of these years and have learned so much. I know its super early in the game. I just went back and read the 2010 Christmas storm threads. ( what a rollercoaster) One quick question and I'll go back to lurking. How does the current overall setup compare to that time period? Thanks!
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What’s the verification look like on stuff like this anyways?
Per JB. MJO slowing in phase 1
NoSnowJoe
Member
Yea and a huge shoutout to everyone for their input! Much appreciated!
The latest GFS graphcast 
Gotta appreciate the solutions computer/AI models come up with sometimes. This is beautiful. 
-- wants to nibble but doesn’t know how to anymore. The lack of snow has gotten to him 
Mahomeless
Member
Appears he took the correct approach in speaking of the pattern and not a specific storm chance since it’s too far out.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
West of 77 that’s some high ratio stuff there
StoneColdHeel
Member
AI and GFS look great. Just wish it was closer.
packfan98
Moderator
On the positive side, we are all still in the game! The Deep South usually only gets one shot or so per year. Suppression or a light event is probably more likely than missing out to the north.
I do think the problematic part is the complexity of a potential phasing event. I think there will be moisture in Texas, but will the energy kick out and get a decent Deep South and SC event? That will be quicker to reveal itself than the Boom ingredients of phasing into a major storm that climbs the coast. How much phase will occur, where and when will it happen, are very tricky but crucial questions for the those on the NW side of the potential.
Good luck everyone! Let’s reel one in!
I do think the problematic part is the complexity of a potential phasing event. I think there will be moisture in Texas, but will the energy kick out and get a decent Deep South and SC event? That will be quicker to reveal itself than the Boom ingredients of phasing into a major storm that climbs the coast. How much phase will occur, where and when will it happen, are very tricky but crucial questions for the those on the NW side of the potential.
Good luck everyone! Let’s reel one in!
This is noticeably becoming a AI vs deterministic battle right now, all the AI models have hits and have mostly been consistently doing it while the deterministics other than the GFS are meh. EPS was okay though
Nice to see a few SV users on here. The user interface on SV is unbeatable
Yeah the AI brings out the Baja wave with the northern stream phasing in. The northern stream phasing in is just a touch ahead of the baja wave, else, it would have exploded
I’ve been paying for SV for years and just never realized it until yesterday.Nice to see a few SV users on here. The user interface on SV is unbeatable
Yeah the AI brings out the Baja wave with the northern stream phasing in. The northern stream phasing in is just a touch ahead of the baja wave, else, it would have exploded
Stormlover
Member
Avalanche
Member
Being east in Wake Forest I don’t think you’d want it much closer. Maybe the mountain folks would
iGRXY
Member
AI GFS is almost locked step like it’s deterministic brother just from looking at the maps on here so far. I will need to go look at the H5 setup but the LP path, strength, and pulling down of serious cold air on its backside looks almost like a copy and paste of each other
Our players are really starting to lock in only around D7-8, the ULL around the Baja, digging energy around MT/WY, and the main EC trough/confluence. but note that small shift NE in the Baja ULL made that run possible. Still a lot to iron out 
You’re not lying. This is pretty close agreement for that respective range. Graphcast digs a bit more and slows it slightly more
rburrel2
Member
Even the models that are missing the phase are generating a light event from the northern trough... If we can keep the same general players on the field I love our chances to come out of this storm with something, but the big dawg scenario seems to be gaining momentum by the hour. GFS, JMA, Euro AI, spire all showing it.
wow
Member
Graphcast brings the whole wave through.. no baja/Mexico cutoff. Allows this one to really wrap up and dig further. This would be coming up the coast past 240. Second run on this one to do so.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
HM likes the potential this period has too fwiw. Although obviously a lot of ways we can mess up
Fair to speculate we need to get past the Sunday/Monday system departure before models have a solid handle on this next one?