Storm5
Member
Lmao snow board wide then 40s and rain two days . Where did our vodka cold go
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
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rburrel2
Member
And still produces… goal posts are wide if we keep the same general configuration.The CMC is straight ugly here out west
It left when we quit ridge bridging the Arctic with -EPO/-NAO. Some of the recent GFS runs still send the TPV and cold south, but I think that is bunk now. But we are just in the mode now of "cold enough" instead of "cold" which has its benefits too
Bigedd09
Member
The cold comes back shortly after that though. Anyway, shouldn't be analyzing models too hard when it's 200+ hours out. The pattern is there though.
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and here's the thing, according to the EPS, we're starting off with the third coldest january at a minimum.
Sort of what I’m pulling for. Want to see it wind up along the coast once it gets into the Atlantic. I want it weak til that point. Transfer then deepen. Like a true classic
Mahomeless
Member
If you’re sitting on the northern fringes right now, be thankful…..because we all know how these things trend. I-20 north special in the next 48 hours.
Yeah, agree, not meaning the cold is gone, just that we’ve lost the rouge ensemble members with a high of 8 degrees lol
JLL1973
Member
People in the midsouth should be feeling pretty good about this one once the northward adjustment begins. Nice to see the gfs and cmc agree somewhat. Would love to see the euro jump onboard shortly
Usmeagle2005
Member
What I’m hoping for, we are kinda in the same boat.
If the euro buries the 10th storm here all hell is going to break loose. Might have a classic brewing. Hopeful but not stupid
I wouldn't be so sure about the typical NW trend.
To get the trough sharp enough to bring meaningful precip as far north as the 12Z run did took a near-perfect timing of at least three pieces of energy. A weaker-strung-out system confined to the coast and just inland is still at least as likely as an amped system.
The fact we have snow showing up inside 180 in Texas for this storm is encouraging. Has been years since we had a look like this inside 200hr I feel like. Desperately need the euro to get on board here
Nice 200+ hour winter storm from a mediocre model. Now let’s see what the Euro says.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah, I'm currently watching the GEFS, and I still see mostly misses (similar to 6z), but the misses for the most part are to the south I believe.
Thats a nearly 24 hour snow event thru large swaths of the south thats one of those rare ones
The
The only sure thing is the storm, if there is one, will not look like the pretty pictures the GFS painted this morning.
Euro was closer than it has been for the timeframe in awhile.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
When a legit chunk of the tropospheric polar vortex drops down into southern Canada or the conus like its forecast to do in the 2nd week of January, you usually get a very cold/dry pattern or a huge coastal storm on the SE US &/or East Coast, with very little of anything in between.
A lot of times, the troposphere polar vortex doesn’t like to play nice with the southern stream and squashes the entire storm track. But on occasion this doesn’t happen (especially if the southern stream is amplified enough and juxtaposed correctly), & you usually get huge coastal cyclones with big snowstorm to the NW.
The 2nd week of January is the definition of an all or nothing type pattern.
A lot of times, the troposphere polar vortex doesn’t like to play nice with the southern stream and squashes the entire storm track. But on occasion this doesn’t happen (especially if the southern stream is amplified enough and juxtaposed correctly), & you usually get huge coastal cyclones with big snowstorm to the NW.
The 2nd week of January is the definition of an all or nothing type pattern.
Euro buries the wave in the Baja but brings some energy down down and it almost is good enough for a late bloomer. But overall I’d say very different then the GFS
howboutthemdawgs
Member
Midsouth include south of Nashville area?
Storm5
Member
Very little op support . We hug the EPS until we can't
Well, by now, we ALL know Corinth, MS. is!
Nashville seems a bit north and east of what most consider midsouth. I am sure JLL can tell ya!
One of these events have to score at some point, right, but man! The energy is really just flying around and the maps look like Hunter Biden blow art!
Nashville seems a bit north and east of what most consider midsouth. I am sure JLL can tell ya!
One of these events have to score at some point, right, but man! The energy is really just flying around and the maps look like Hunter Biden blow art!
NEGaweather
Member
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Yeah we either need the SW wave to kick out like the GFS or the follow-up wave on the Euro to drop down into the CONUS farther west. The Euro run here looks a lot like the recent Euro AI runs
Ultimately, it goes back to the image from last night. Need more of the blue arrow and less of the black arrow with the ridges firing up out west
JLL1973
Member
Who knows at this timeframe. You probably have just as good as chance as anyone. If there even is a storm.
RollTide18
Member
Idk in these circumstances idk if I want want suppression in fear of even more suppression.
Drop off for areas of the Deep South so far but around the same for the Southeast. 
Better check those generators. I know some of y’all left fuel in the lines. Won’t do you any good 9 days from now
Would be cool if we can get a ole classic pv hook setup. EPS looks like there’s a clipper that dives SE as well way more this run into NC 
lexxnchloe
Member
I will get to the store tomorrow am
Not every day you see the entire states of north and South Carolina under blue hues
NEGaweather
Member
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yall complaining about this?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
That’s a look you’d want 8 days a week at 240 hours.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Decent bump in moisture in the western gulf coast states, we still have many model cycles to get through to sort this out. This is the period we need to watch.
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member