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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

NEGaweather said:
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06z GEFS still has good signal. More hits south this run. Good look at 9 days


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I love seeing some of my misses here in central Alabama being with heavy precip fields just to my south. This truly feels like such a great position at this lead point! 🤞
 
Arcc said:
This pattern is absolutely loaded it the GFS is to be believed. Do not take anything though a face value, the 6z storm will be gone or changed completely at 12z.
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The 06z storm has showed up on the GFS for like 3 runs straight now. We just need the Euro to come around.
 
AI misses the phase with the cutoff s/w but still digs the northern stream far enough to tap the gulf. Verbatim it's a nice little cold snow storm, but man.... the potential is through the roof.

Love seeing these runs generate a storm without relying on capturing that s/w though. Starting to look like we have some decently wide goal posts for this threat.
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EPS says I'm getting a flurry blizzard in New Mexico next week as part of this long wave trough digs into the Desert SW.

I like the upper low track for us, but this pattern is probably going to be too progressive to get a big dog (4"+ event) down here in New Mexico.

We usually need a SE US ridge to trap an upper low that moves from the north over the interior west & slingshot western gulf moisture back into our area on the northern side of the upper trough. Likely not getting that here, but still, it's better than nothing I guess.

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Webberweather53 said:
EPS says I'm getting a flurry blizzard in New Mexico next week as part of this long wave trough digs into the Desert SW.

I like the upper low track for us, but this pattern is probably going to be too progressive to get a big dog (4"+ event) down here in New Mexico.

We usually need a SE US ridge to trap an upper low that moves from the north over the interior west & slingshot western gulf moisture back into our area on the northern side of the upper trough. Likely not getting that here, but still, it's better than nothing I guess.

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Same as everywhere, elevation is king. I'm sure the higher mountains near you should provide the goods.
 
FallsLake said:
Same as everywhere, elevation is king. I'm sure the higher mountains near you should provide the goods.
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Yeah this might be at least a chaseable snow event for me.

Granted, even in the desert basin areas our elevation is above 4,000 feet, which helps a lot for getting the rare winter storm or two when the moisture & cold decide to actually show up.
 
rburrel2 said:
I'm not sure if a strong deep diving clipper transferring to the Gulf/Atlantic meets the definition of a Miller B or not.
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Was wondering what that was in Kentucky. Part of the NS energy moving
 
I can guarantee you nobody on this board thinks it's not going to snow more than me. Not Stevo, not Weatherfide, Kylo, nobody. That comes from years of snow deprivation living in CAE, now going through the longest snow drought in history at my location. I haven't seen a flake in 3 years! I've never went this long without seeing at least flakes fly, even living in CAE it didn't do this. So I apologize for my pessimism, I'm just a product of my environment.

But I do know this, if it's going to snow Jan 8th thru the 15th at some point, we wouldn't know yet. I don't care how many fantasy runs come out. I guarantee you 100% the GFS is not going to keep that current storm 10 days out on every run from here out. If it is going to happen it's going to come and go and each model will take their turns flipping back and forth. And don't get me started on the ensembles. They are just as useless at individual storms more than a week out. Look how good the EPS looked the other day only to lose it in just a couple cycles. How many times over the last couple years have we seen all ops saying no at 72 hrs yet the EPS and GEFS still have several hits and keep hope alive? A lot. And not one has materialized. To me it seems use the ensembles for pattern recognition beyond days 7. There is skill in that. Days 4-7 use ops to see if you can get agreement and see if the event is trending up or down. Inside days 4 use the ops and short range models. But that's just my opinion. Enjoy the next 2 weeks. It may not snow but at least it's exciting! Happy New Year everyone!
 
rburrel2 said:
AI misses the phase with the cutoff s/w but still digs the northern stream far enough to tap the gulf. Verbatim it's a nice little cold snow storm, but man.... the potential is through the roof.

Love seeing these runs generate a storm without relying on capturing that s/w though. Starting to look like we have some decently wide goal posts for this threat.
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Yeah with the type of airmass coming in and the snow pack that is likely to be put down just to our north, we don’t really need a phased monster here to make some magic happen. Give me weak low moving along the Gulf Coast and exiting about Jacksonville, like January 1988, and I’ll take my chances with a significant overrunning event. Also you can pretty much bet the house that precip in an event like that would be far more expansive to the north than what the models are showing.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I can guarantee you nobody on this board thinks it's not going to snow more than me. Not Stevo, not Weatherfide, Kylo, nobody. That comes from years of snow deprivation living in CAE, now going through the longest snow drought in history at my location. I haven't seen a flake in 3 years! I've never went this long without seeing at least flakes fly, even living in CAE it didn't do this. So I apologize for my pessimism, I'm just a product of my environment.

But I do know this, if it's going to snow Jan 8th thru the 15th at some point, we wouldn't know yet. I don't care how many fantasy runs come out. I guarantee you 100% the GFS is not going to keep that current storm 10 days out on every run from here out. If it is going to happen it's going to come and go and each model will take their turns flipping back and forth. And don't get me started on the ensembles. They are just as useless at individual storms more than a week out. Look how good the EPS looked the other day only to lose it in just a couple cycles. How many times over the last couple years have we seen all ops saying no at 72 hrs yet the EPS and GEFS still have several hits and keep hope alive? A lot. And not one has materialized. To me it seems use the ensembles for pattern recognition beyond days 7. There is skill in that. Days 4-7 use ops to see if you can get agreement and see if the event is trending up or down. Inside days 4 use the ops and short range models. But that's just my opinion. Enjoy the next 2 weeks. It may not snow but at least it's exciting! Happy New Year everyone!
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I agree almost 100%. I think D4-D7 in some ways is where the smoke and mirrors exist the most. Ops are in the medium range where they sometimes have skill and just as often have almost none when it comes to individual storm details. It's where we are right now with the first system - once again, models all seem to be moving in a set direction and so everyone writes it off, which is quite foolhardy IMO. Inside D4 are when the real, true trends matter.
 
Parker said:
I’m just glad the cold will be here soon. I have little to no doubt that we will have at least a couple of opportunities if the long duration cold that is behind modeled holds true.
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Speaking of long duration, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a TWC extended forecast for temps like what it’s showing for KCLT. Starting Saturday, the warmest high it shows is 46 through the 1/15. The average is 51. Most days are showing 10-15 below average for the period
 
Mitch West said:
The 06z storm has showed up on the GFS for like 3 runs straight now. We just need the Euro to come around.
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The issue isn’t the storm, but the mechanisms that cause the “storm” on the models change each run. Until you actually get the same shortwave consistently giving a result you are flying completely blind.

Edit.

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It’s going to take a lot of fortunate bounces & sheer luck on shortwave timing/placement to hit on this event & we won’t know what kind of hand we’re being dealt for several more days.

A lot of times, when a big chunk of the troposphere polar vortex drops down like this, it usually leads to either too much suppression or a big storm, with not much room for anything in between.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It’s going to take a lot of fortunate bounces & sheer luck on shortwave timing/placement to hit on this event & we won’t know what kind of hand we’re being dealt for several more days.

A lot of times, when a big chunk of the troposphere polar vortex drops down like this, it usually leads to either too much suppression or a big storm, with not much room for anything in between.
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Based upon the last 3-5 years,
You'd think the latter bc we are due!
But oth maybe this is just the new norm!
I hate it as much as anyone on this board that loves snow & winter weather!
I'm not an ostrich with my head in the sand!
It's warmed in my lifetime enough for me to notice it!
I'm not the only one so my heart is wanting to believe in the big dog scenario but my head is telling me it's going to be suppressed!
I hate to sound so desperate but at this point I'd take a dusting to a couple of inches just to get on the board and hope for something later or next year knowing the streak is behind us!
🤷‍♂️😔
 
More pos tilt here at 12z. Big press up top. Got more of that weak overrunning look. Snow breaking out in TX and LA. Let’s see if it turns the corner IMG_0794.png
 
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