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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Lots of hits on the EPS
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Parker said:
Those gulf hits at this timeframe has me feeling all types of ways. Some of those are monsters too.
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This storm has Atlanta and I-20 corridor name written all over it. I seen this before. the L shifts about 50 to 75 miles north. Game time! Cold air is in place. I call for a Snow on the I-20 corridor and north along I-85 corridor and an icy mess from Columbus to Macon. No a forecast, but just a feeling. I seen this with the Janurary 2014 storm.
 
We need to see more of the blue arrow and less of the black arrow with the western ridge. The black arrow is leading to the waves getting tucked and crushed into the SW.

So, need more cyclonic wave breaking and less anticyclonic wave breaking. I suppose one reason we are seeing this is because the Pac Jet is a bit too far north (poleward shifted). We need it to be more equatorward shifted

83Iy4DF.png


6k2SEzO.png


XhSXmas.png
 
griteater said:
We need to see more of the blue arrow and less of the black arrow with the western ridge. The black arrow is leading to the waves getting tucked and crushed into the SW.

So, need more cyclonic wave breaking and less anticyclonic wave breaking. I suppose one reason we are seeing this is because the Pac Jet is a bit too far north (poleward shifted). We need it to be more equatorward shifted

83Iy4DF.png


6k2SEzO.png


XhSXmas.png
Click to expand...
What would enable your blue arrow scenario? The Greenland block sliding west a tad?
 
Last edited:
Avalanche said:
What would enable your blue arrow scenario? The Greenland block sliding west a tad?
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I'd say the Pac side is more in control of the Aleutian Low / W North America ridge placement there. A poleward Pac jet is favored during La Nina and the warm MJO phases / more equatorward during El Nino. For more info, see this link: https://www.weather.gov/media/sti/nggps/Presentations 2017/08 NGGPS17_PImeeting_Bosart.pdf

We have a mix of things going on this winter. Atmosphere is acting more like El Nino (+PNA), Jet structure is more El Nino like, MJO is active, EQSOI and OLR is La Nina like. Just need to see if we can get some improvement with the trough / ridge setup out west

Dec 31 N Pac Jet Regimes.png
 
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