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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Nice little tick south on the 14z HRRR as others have mentioned. Glad to see so far at least, the warm nose is getting tamped down. Think we all knew the NAM would be too warm after last weekend, but I won't lie the HRRR has had me spooked for RDU (still am - we're right on the line).
hrrr-nc-total_snow_kuchera-6582400.png
 
chuckhendo said:
Got about 10 min of decent snowfall here and now it has seemingly transitioned to mostly IP. Wasn’t expecting much here but was hoping for at least some accumulation given the over performance elsewhere
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Likewise re: I was hoping for over performance. I presume it'll be a blend of snow/sleet for a couple hours.
 
651e18596a2fbcefb71f6551480669e6.jpg

Early for OVERALL scores …. But man, EURO A.I/ RGEM definitely about a -6.5 Fav (Touchdown ) to take the Trophy for now


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Webberweather53 said:
Yo dawg, I heard you liked warm advection


View attachment 162408
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Not obvious here with this plot is how the warm advection actually slopes upward with height.

Northeast/downstream of the 700mb warm advection max, the warm advection is actually occurring higher up in the troposphere, closer to the dendritic growth zone. That too helps generate greater snowfall rates on the leading edge of the warm nose. As you get south of this, the core of the warm advection aloft becomes more vertically displaced from the snow growth zone, making you more likely to transition to sleet in that way too.
 
I’m tickled to death over our 4 inches of snow here in NE Madison County, AL. We’ve been on a strange line for the past couple of snows where we could walk a mile north westward and folks would’ve been blistered with snow while we got freezing rain or nothing. Mets here saying we could even get another inch or 2
 
Here in Jasper, less than an inch. Snow mixing with sleet. 28 with dewpoint of 26. Battling warm nose.
 
One thing good for RDU/E NC/VA folks accumulations wise is that all of this will fall after dark, so we won’t have to contend with the sun angle at all. Will make sticking to roads, etc. much easier (not that it wouldn’t stick over time regardless). We often get really lucky around here with storm timings. Of course, on the bad side it’s harder to see the snow, so good and bad from it…
 
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