• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Hrrr keeps ticking colder and colder. Now has Oconee/Pickens/Greenville teetering on the sleet/snow line from 5pm-7pm before going back to snow.
Euro AI shows good punch of precip into the upstate this aftn

53XAPhg.gif
 
Encouraged with HRRR trends. It's still likely too warm at the surface still.
Speeding up precip some too and I think it still arrives sooner than that. I know dry air will eat it up initially but I don't think we see virga for 2 hours, heck you will see snowflakes before the sun sets
 
  • Like
Reactions: SD
Encouraged with HRRR trends. It's still likely too warm at the surface still.
I'm like 2 miles inside the line to go from 2 inches to 6inches depicted on the Hrrr. It's got 3 inches falling on the back end in the upstate and i'm right on the line... sort of annoying to have to be analyzing this so hard, haha.
 
As soon as they upgraded to winter storm warnings and the precipitation started falling heavier, it turned to all rain. Pardon me while I go somewhere and weep silently.
 
Yeah, this setup doesn't scream big ice storm in the Carolinas to me.

There definitely will be a glaze in many areas of course, but many of the official forecast totals I've seen are likely way overdone.

The lack of a solid cold high to the north & southerly winds in the boundary layer suggests a quicker transition from sleet to freezing rain & rain, which seems to be verifying upstream over Georgia so far.


ecmwf-deterministic-east-mslp_anom-6532000.png

nam-nest-nc-z850_speed-6553600.png


nam-nest-nc-wnd10m_stream_mph-6550000.png
 
As soon as they upgraded to winter storm warnings and the precipitation started falling heavier, it turned to all rain. Pardon me while I go somewhere and weep silently.

Yep. Freezing rain is a self-limiting process. Heavier rates usually do not translate to heavier ice accrual, if anything it's the opposite most times. Light, long duration precipitation is usually the way to go, which has not been the calling card of this particular storm.

When everything is trying to freeze at once and you don't have a continuous supply of cold air to offset the extra latent heat release from that, you go over to rain much more quickly.
 
Transition from moderate snow to moderate ice pellets happened about 15 min ago here 10 miles north of Augusta.
As of 11:30 est, 100% freezing rain for about an hour now. Hovering around 31 so far and trees are looking glazed. The roof of the house is melting but unheated buildings are accumulating ice. 20250110_113359.jpg
 
14z vs 15z HRRR for RDU at 04z. 14z had more lift in DGZ = cooler column. This is probably going to be a precip rate driven event around here during the heart of the event. Heavier rates = more towards snow, lighter rates will be mixed with or mostly sleet.
hrrr_2025011014_fh14_sounding_KRDU.png
hrrr_2025011015_fh13_sounding_KRDU.png
 
Back
Top