Looking at backyard weather station data.. looks like ever since it started snowing near BHAM, temps have dropped 2-3 degrees below modeled temps.
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
sackjalding
Member
Sleet starting to get heavier.
Shadypines33
Member
Snowing pretty heavily in Madison (8 miles to the NW of Huntsville). All snow so far. Grass is turning white.
rburrel2
Member
Battle lines in the upstate as depicted on the most recent Hrrr at 2pm.
Good news, it has precip arriving earlier and it stalls the transitions line for a couple hours right around I-85.
Bad news, It's not showing super heavy rates and it is showing a tansition to sleet around 5pm.
Good news, it has precip arriving earlier and it stalls the transitions line for a couple hours right around I-85.
Bad news, It's not showing super heavy rates and it is showing a tansition to sleet around 5pm.
Given the GFS’s track record regarding this storm, I would not be overly concerned about its current forecast. Furthermore, the drier air will only reinforce the cold air once precipitation begins to fall. Consider the observations in Alabama.
rburrel2
Member
At 6pm, the Hrrr has me under heavy sleet with these temps:
925mb: -4C
850mb: -5C
700mb: -1C
I guess there's a paper thin warm layer somewhere in there.
Rat farts!
925mb: -4C
850mb: -5C
700mb: -1C
I guess there's a paper thin warm layer somewhere in there.
Rat farts!
RobertRath
Member
Can confirm the heavy return on the radar for my location had more sleet, the lighter return is all snow. NE of Jasper
Pops
Member
Rap model is doing better with initializing.so maybe it has a better handle in this thing..MAYBE
COME ON BOYS 
Mesoscale Discussion 0030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025
Areas affected...Parts of northeast MS...northern AL/GA...southern middle TN
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 101019Z - 101515Z
SUMMARY...An increase in winter precipitation rates is possible through the early morning.
DISCUSSION...An extensive precipitation shield is gradually spreading eastward across the Southeast early this morning, in advance of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the lower MS Valley. Precipitation rates across northern AL/GA have thus far been limited by very dry antecedent conditions (as noted in the 00Z BMZ and FFC soundings), but saturation and evaporative cooling of the column will support an increase in winter precipitation across the region with time this morning.
The evolution of precipitation type remains uncertain through the morning, due to the competing influences of initial evaporative cooling, increasing warm advection above the surface, and maintenance of modest near-surface cold/dry advection from the east/northeast. Snow may persist as the dominant precipitation type from far northern AL into middle TN, with rates potentially approaching an inch per hour as large-scale ascent increases and the column saturates.
From north-central AL into northern GA, mixed precipitation appears more likely, with forecast soundings depicting near to slightly above-freezing temperatures from the surface to around 700 mb once saturation occurs. A general transition from snow/sleet to sleet/freezing rain/rain is possible across these areas. Moderate to locally heavy snow/sleet rates will be possible as the column initially saturates, while some ice accretion may eventually occur where subfreezing near-surface temperatures can persist as precipitation gradually transitions to a liquid phase.
..Dean.. 01/10/2025
Mesoscale Discussion 0030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025
Areas affected...Parts of northeast MS...northern AL/GA...southern middle TN
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 101019Z - 101515Z
SUMMARY...An increase in winter precipitation rates is possible through the early morning.
DISCUSSION...An extensive precipitation shield is gradually spreading eastward across the Southeast early this morning, in advance of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the lower MS Valley. Precipitation rates across northern AL/GA have thus far been limited by very dry antecedent conditions (as noted in the 00Z BMZ and FFC soundings), but saturation and evaporative cooling of the column will support an increase in winter precipitation across the region with time this morning.
The evolution of precipitation type remains uncertain through the morning, due to the competing influences of initial evaporative cooling, increasing warm advection above the surface, and maintenance of modest near-surface cold/dry advection from the east/northeast. Snow may persist as the dominant precipitation type from far northern AL into middle TN, with rates potentially approaching an inch per hour as large-scale ascent increases and the column saturates.
From north-central AL into northern GA, mixed precipitation appears more likely, with forecast soundings depicting near to slightly above-freezing temperatures from the surface to around 700 mb once saturation occurs. A general transition from snow/sleet to sleet/freezing rain/rain is possible across these areas. Moderate to locally heavy snow/sleet rates will be possible as the column initially saturates, while some ice accretion may eventually occur where subfreezing near-surface temperatures can persist as precipitation gradually transitions to a liquid phase.
..Dean.. 01/10/2025
HRRR showing a substantial ice storm for lake Lanier to around Anderson sc from what I see
Virga or not, this is going to start SOON. I can smell it. -- sweating looking at radar 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Flipping the switch fast in northern half of AL!
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Birmingham clearly the early winner. If they even got snow was a legit question
rburrel2
Member
If that band keeps building in to the upstate then it's hammer time here for quite a while... let's go!!! GFS/Euro AI have been saying we start around 8-9am all along.
Getting a decent amount of sleet falling so far. 33/17
rburrel2
Member
The RAP has jumped Birmingham up from getting 1.9 inches at the 21z run to getting 9.4 inches on the 09z run! (10 to 1 ratio map).
RobertRath
Member
any chance we hold onto the snow longer than predicted or do we flip to rain mid morning?
I mean they may have a legit inch already
WarEagle22
Member
Im in middle northwest GA just a few miles from the TN line, nothing so far.
albertwilsonjr
Member
CBrown
Member
I already have an inch on the Jefferson/Shelby Co line south of B'ham w large flakes falling.
Hell yeah. Bodes well for the rest of us I hope!
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Every few seconds a big ole snowflake makes it down. They are huge.
Snowflowxxl
Member
All our posters that left BHAM to chase 
Sleeting with occasional snowflakes in north Atlanta!
27/17 with precip knocking on the door
It’s been a while
It’s been a while
Stormlover
Member
Got an inch and the heaviest is coming still. MD said 1 inch an hour may be coming. 
jaymackd3
Member
Grass just starting to get covered in SE Huntsville (Hampton Cove area)…snowing pretty steadily
Getting a boost of confidence/hopium looking upstream this morning. Sheesh
Starting to see the CC changeover line slide east towards Atlanta. Hopefully we can get a changeover in the west burbs here in the next hour 
Stormlover
Member
1 1/2 inches south of Birmingham at Helena and Alabaster already
weatherguy
Member
Have 1.5" of snow now in Franklin county AL, still coming down fast, all snow. Medium wet flakes that make a noise as they hit the ground.