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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

The Wulf is up, had to run medical tx. today. Also, would like to thank everyone for excellent coverage on this storm. Top props to the admins that run this board. Your making a difference in people and patient lives! I will report when snow is falling in the Catoosa Co. area!
 
Couple of mping snow reports around Tuscaloosa-Birmingham. Anyone there seeing anything?
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Couple thoughts after waking up this morning...

It seems like the 850mb warm nose and boundary layer are running a little higher than we expected across MS/AL. That sucks.

On the bright side for the Upstate and maybe Central NC.. it seems like 700mb temps are running as expected if not a touch cooler. We shouldn't have any issues at around 850mb as we've got a pocket of colder air to work with, and certainly no issues at the surface. So things aren't looking as dire here, yet.

In fact, the rgem has trended to an almost all snow event north I-85 in the upstate. However, it's really really close, so honestly who knows how it's going to unfold.

Observation #2: it seems like the Hrrr depiction of delayed precip arrival is wrong. I expect a more GFS/Euro/Euro AI arrival of 8-9am after looking at radar and down stream obs. Which bodes very well for us, if true.

That's my dose of hopium for the morning anyways. Good luck everyone!
 
Last edited:
rburrel2 said:
Couple thoughts after waking up this morning...

It seems like the 850mb warm nose and boundary layer are running a little higher than we expected across MS/AL. That sucks.

On the bright side for the Upstate.. it seems like 700mb temps are running as expected if not a touch cooler. We shouldn't have any issues at around 850mb as we've got a pocket of colder air to work with, and certainly no issues at the surface. So things aren't looking as dire here, yet.

In fact, the rgem has trended to an almost all snow event north I-85 in the upstate. However, it's really really close, so honestly who knows how it's going to unfold.

Observation #2: it seems like the Hrrr depiction of delayed precip arrival is wrong. I expect a more GFS/Euro/Euro AI arrival of 8-9am after looking at radar and down stream obs. Which bodes very well for us, if true.

That's my dose of hopium for the morning anyways. Good luck everyone!
Click to expand...
It’s crashing now.
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
443 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 412 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

Key Messages:

- A significant winter storm will impact northern Georgia today,
leading to hazardous or impossible travel conditions.

- Ice accumulations of 0.15 to 0.40 inches may lead to power
outages, especially in northeast Georgia.

- Snow amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range a possible north of
Interstate 20, with isolated totals near 3 inches possible on
the higher mountain peaks.

Winter Weather Threats Through Saturday:

A Winter Storm Warning remains in place for portions of north
Georgia that will experience hazardous or impossible travel
conditions today. Travel is not advised within the warning area, and
should be avoided if possible. If you must travel, ensure that you
have an extra method of staying warm, an extra flashlight, food, and
water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road
conditions for the state can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Downed
trees or powerlines may also occur within the warning area,
leading to power outages. Several counties in central Georgia
remain under a Weather Advisory. These counties may experience
hazardous travel due to snow and ice, especially this morning.

As it has been with the prior forecasts, surface temperatures remain
the primary challenge for today. The two main forces affecting the
temperature forecast should be the low surface dewpoints this
morning (evaporative cooling potential) and the potential for low
level WAA this afternoon. Observed surface dewpoints over northern
Georgia were in the teens as of 4 AM. This was on track compared
to the prior forecast. From Macon southwards, dewpoints were in
the mid 20s, and this was a deviation of 6 to 8 degrees (higher)
from the prior forecast. The low surface dewpoints in northern
Georgia should combine with a substantial dry layer (below 700 mb
on the 00Z sounding) in the lower levels of the atmosphere to
produce a significant amount of evaporative cooling this morning.
This should drive temperatures downward, from the current values
in the lower 30s to the upper 20s once precipitation starts. As a
result the initial precipitation type this morning should be snow.
The higher surface dewpoints in central Georgia suggest a lower
evaporative cooling potential and this may limit the potential
time window for a brief burst of snow in this morning. As the day
progress the freezing line should gradually move northwards in
response to low level WAA. The degree to which this will occur
remains in doubt, but the latest CAM runs have been inching it
towards the Atlanta area this afternoon. In northeast Georgia
where colder surface air tends to linger, we may stay at or just
below freezing for the entire event. This suggest the highest
potential for ice accumulations of 0.25 inches or more along a
line from just north of Atlanta to Gainesville to Lake Hartwell.
Snow amounts near an inch could occur in the Atlanta Metro this
morning, but the highest totals 2-3 inches should be limited to
the mountains.

Freezing precipitation will come to and end for most of the
region by 2 AM Saturday. However a few snow flurries could linger
in the mountains of northern Georgia through Saturday morning.
Depending on how substantial ice accumulations are, there could be
a concern for additional power outages on Saturday as northwest
wind gusts creep into the 15 to 25 mph range. Otherwise
temperatures should warm gradually on Saturday, with all but the
higher peaks of the mountains climbing back above freezing. This
should aid in melting, but patches of black ice may reform
Saturday night as temperatures fall back below freezing.
 
The last time I saw KFFC radar look something like it does at this moment was right before this happened:

In 2011, one of the most significant winter storms to affect north and central Georgia in years began on the evening of the 9th and continued through much of the 10th. Four to eight inches of snow was common across most of north Georgia north of I-20. South of I-20 and into central Georgia, there was a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Major interstates and roads were impassable across north Georgia for 2 to 3 days and many schools were closed for the entire week.
 
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