Chattownsnow
Member
Heavy band through Fort Worth and just West of Dallas . Love to be under that and see what ground truth was 
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Lowtown
Member
I just saw this too. A "high end" amount of 3" in Winston-Salem and 1" in Raleigh seems very low. Their claim that 90% of models are predicting less than that just isn't true.
rburrel2
Member
Each run of the RAP is a tick towards being flatter/less warm nose. The NAM is gonna cave in a big way at 18z.
Does nam work off RAP someway?
Brent
Member
It is not even close to all snow I can tell you that
rburrel2
Member
Also, we're getting in to the usuable range of the RAP now and it has an inch on the ground just south of ATL with the fronto band approaching from the South. Here's their sounding at the same time.
I hope so but I've learned the hard way over the years when it comes to it predicting thermals. If it's showing a warm nose believe it. Maybe once or twice did I manage to keep snow when it showed sleet and had a stout HP to my north.
Side Note: since every model in the world hasn't sided with the NAM, the Griteater Forecast Contest Thread survives - we're going for it. Forecast deadline is tonight at 10pm Eastern
Link to the thread: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/the-griteater-snowfall-contest.1364/
The pot is at $100 for the winner. Donations to the pot still accepted. DM me if so inclined.
Link to the thread: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/the-griteater-snowfall-contest.1364/
The pot is at $100 for the winner. Donations to the pot still accepted. DM me if so inclined.
Your a good man! I've learned a lot from you in the last 15+ years. Thank you for your contributions over the years their very much appreciated and I'm sure I speak for many. Good luck stay safe and enjoy my friend.
Snowflowxxl
Member
That initial band is going to be big time for those who score. 1-2 inch an hour. I recommend setting alarm clocks for 5am.
beanskip
Member
HRRR (in its more relevant under-18-hours range) inching colder in northern Miss./Bama/Ga/SC. with each run.
Hence, the frozen precip field is expanding south -- down to Montgomery's doorstep on 16z run.
Hence, the frozen precip field is expanding south -- down to Montgomery's doorstep on 16z run.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I think the NAM warm nose isn't legitimate and the reason being it's failing miserably at the thermals out west currently. It amped up way too much and likely poorly handled and is handling the energy incorrectly. Maybe its over-amping bias really shows during the energy phasing?
It's actually wetter qpf this run too but more so west to east parts in N. AL and N. GA as it progressed eastward were about to get in on some solid accumulations a few frames later it would been all pretty moderate snow thru out 278/I-20 area of AL/GA
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
One last shot of snow for me loading up right on the side door cold front.
Could be the biggest one as we get moist, easterly upslope flow behind the boundary
Could be the biggest one as we get moist, easterly upslope flow behind the boundary
I agree I've just been burned so many times. What you were saying along with it being on an island by itself gives me hope.
rburrel2
Member
I don't think so, other than maybe they're using the same current condition data.
I'm just saying it's inevitable the NAM will fold since it doesn't have any support now. In fact everything that's come out has mostly been trending the other way today.
beanskip
Member
Looking at this, if I didn’t know there was a winter storm coming and didn’t see H5, I’d assume Carolina severe. Thats how traumatizing it’s been recently 
Downeastnc
Member
Gonna see some decent totals in the north Dallas burbs when it is all said and done.
Based off the medium to long range guidance we are seeing, we probably won't avoid that this Winter. So let's enjoy this storm while we have it.
This is from the latest NWS HUN AFD, not sure where anyone is seeing 5-8.
"The net result of this has been to
lower snowfall totals into the 2-4" range but increase freezing
rain accumulations to indicate a layer of glaze up to 0.10" for
most of the region (perhaps in the 0.10-0.20" range in the east)."
Cary_Snow95
Member
I increasingly think that Wake is going to get a mess with a little snow, lots of IP, and topped by zr. Will be like a block of concrete on the roads
rburrel2
Member
Whooa moma... last panel of the latest Hrrr now has heavy snow breaking out well south of Birmingham, AL.
I put the 12z run in for comparison.
I put the 12z run in for comparison.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
IK his area has 1500 -2000’ Elevation on Us here as I’m only 950’ but 15/1 ? 20/1? I was thinking we’d see like 7/1 ish maybe 8/1. If Mountains/Foothills squeeze even 12/1 someone’s going 6-8” through there at even .5” QPF
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Showmeyourtds
Member
Some folks were referring to the over-zealous TWC graphics that were posted earlier. They do their own thing alot of times. Such as, name winter storms.
SnowwxAtl
Member
Is it truly snow or sleet/snow mix?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
3km NAM as usual sniffed out yesterday’s warm advection snow before most other CAMs and the ECMWF + NAM were among the most consistent with the cold advection snow im getting now.
The GFS and HRRR weren’t great, save for the snow we had earlier this morning on the 500mb vort max, which the hrrr captured.
The GEFS and GFS were too dry high here for the most part and played catch up to the ECMWF/EPS for most of this storm. The CMC/GEPS were likely too wet conversely
Last frame of the hrrr
rburrel2
Member
I'll be shocked if Huntsville doesn't get at least 5 inches. just my two cents.
I know man it’s awful but it’s still gonna work for a lot of people which is wild. Look at this big connection. This ain’t it 
Mahomeless
Member
On multiple model runs, both globals and hi-res….they have been posted in here multiple times.
bud006
Member
Is there a link to today’s briefing? I don’t see it on FFC’s YouTube page? Thanks in advance.
Very similar to the Graf
Don’t think it’s been posted quite yet. I’ve been refreshing their YouTube page lol
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Crum at 14 just Posted this…. Started at 4 (CLT metro) and not pulling out till around 2-3AM SW - NE. I just find it very hard to believe that radar looks like this for 7-8hrs and You walk away with 2”….
And he and others “All new Data pointing towards Less Winter Weather …. “ huh?
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Hopefully that verifies!
Psalm 148:8
Member
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2016
- Messages
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Please delete if you choose. NWS FFC still sitting on their hands.. for the first time in 47 years! Troup county schools made their own call to close without being under any type of winter weather notice. That is ridiculous!!! This is not a school closing post! And I know their job is hard.. but the writing is on the wall that counties below the watch meet advisory criteria! 
. Rant over….
. Rant over….Snow_chaser
Member
I copied this from Glenn Burns fb page. He just said it was from an afternoon briefing
Briefing video up now.