Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

That's bad, right? We need those two to be further apart?

For those near/south of the I-20 corridor in south-central Mississippi, Alabama, & Georgia this is a favorable trend toward more wintry wx

And bad for RDU

Nah, it's a different story for the Carolinas... We'll also have to watch the evolution of the shortwave currently in the Eurasian arctic, this system will be over the Great Lakes ~ 4 days. If this digs southwestward and slows down, our southern branch disturbance would get turned northward & vis versa.

Similar to a phase almost once it turns up the Atlantic?

Oth of course if our disturbance is weaker to begin w/, that will definitely impact its capability of phasing w/ this system in the northern stream

 

[Shawn]

I'd really like to see this disconnect on the nam and try to get itself back together

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[Shawn]

Right now it appears as if we'll be for 0/1 on 0z runs this evening (for the NC crew anyway)

Too much northern stream interaction at this point. It's starting to become a given this will happen.

 

[Shawn]

Funny how everybody likes to act nice, but when their backyard becomes in jeopardy, its every man for himself! I like the trends

 

[Shawn]

Wow. I leave you guys for a few hours and suddenly the trends improve and things get really really weird. Anyways, back to work I have plenty of patients (dogs/cats) to tend to. I'll catch back up between the 0z gfs/euro. Reel it in guys!

 

[Shawn]

I'd really like to see this disconnect on the nam and try to get itself back together

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Maybe trying to come back to life hour 60.... come on baby you can do it

 

[Shawn]

Which nam is best to follow on tidbits? 4K, 12 or 32?

 

[Shawn]

At 60 it seems like both the northern stream and disturbance are coming south hand in hand to my novice eyes.

 

[Shawn]

Funny how everybody likes to act nice, but when their backyard becomes in jeopardy, its every man for himself! I like the trends

Me too, there isn't strong northern interaction on NAM, there's just enough...the NAM looks good IMO. It may look bad, but once the energy drops down into the Gulf...its back in business

 

[Shawn]

supposedly for the runs tonight the models have ingested new data? in which this would mean the 0z suite will be the runs that tell us everything?

 

[Shawn]

Just trending worse and worse as we get closer. This sucks.

For you maybe.

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[Shawn]

Which nam is best to follow on tidbits? 4K, 12 or 32?

12k for 500mb I doubt the 4k gets out far enough to tell anything

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[Shawn]

So the nam feeds into the northern stream that snow breaks out here Friday evening

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[Shawn]

At the surface at 60 the system looks healthy honestly to me. I can't see farther though.

 

[Shawn]

Atlanta gets flurries on this run.

 

[Shawn]

nam gives northern Bama and miss brief snow showers lol

Great start tonight

0/1

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[Shawn]

Might not be bad after all. Seems precip is further NW this time.

 

[Shawn]

Precip shield much more nw this run not sure I saw that coming....

 

[Shawn]

Definite rough start for most of us bama folks. Let's hope that wasn't close to the truth.

 

[Shawn]

Atlanta gets flurries on this run.

Thats good right ? I mean its better than rain.

 

[Shawn]

Wouldn't worry yet. If GFS starts to change like this, trouble on the horizon for many. GFS has been slightly getting more interaction too. ;/

 

[Shawn]

That was weak lol

 

[Shawn]

Wow the NAM is terrible. I'm sorry but there would be much more precip inland. Wow this model is terrible

 

[Shawn]

Nam not bad, put some snow down in AL. Map please

 

[Shawn]

Wow the NAM is terrible. I'm sorry but there would be much more precip inland. Wow this model is terrible

Yeah....it is the longer range of the NAM as well.....not worried yet...

 

[Shawn]

congrats Auburn ....you won something !!!!!! Nam winner for alabama

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[Shawn]

I'm glad I'm in the NW upstate!

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[Shawn]

Why does the NAM show a HUGE precip gap between the snow and rain? That's odd.

 

[Shawn]

congrats Auburn ....you won something !!!!!! Nam winner for alabama

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Wow!! Lol

 

[Shawn]

meh its decent. Definitely hoping for better though

 

[Shawn]

1-3 from the nam..I'll take it

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[Shawn]

congrats Auburn ....you won something !!!!!! Nam winner for alabama

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Now that's funny right there!  I don't care who ya are!

 

[Shawn]

congrats Auburn ....you won something !!!!!! Nam winner for alabama

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Wow!! Lol

hey its all good I'm an Auburn fan. Reality is the best option

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[Shawn]

I started to panic a bit until I realized that it was the long range NAM lol.

 

[Shawn]

Precip fields look very strange. This may be a result of pushing the NAM beyond it's limits?

 

[Shawn]

Lol that run sucked... I really don't like how the system out west keeps getting sheared out...

 

[Shawn]

Agree Delta, looks like a trash run. Would definitely expect more precip

 

[Shawn]

Whooty who yeah boy. Always war eagle and go Bama bring it home.

 

[Shawn]

Meh it's the long range NAM.... and fwiw the NAM-para looks almost identical, has more of an overrunning look to it, quick hitter.... sweet spot maybe 2"

 

[Shawn]

congrats Auburn ....you won something !!!!!! Nam winner for alabama

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Lmao