Gfs has 18-22 for wake county we might mix with some sleet. Especially over my way. The cmc has 1-3 the overnight euro did too. I would lean that way until something else supports the gfsBrick Tamland link said:
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Although we probably can't be terribly certain about any specific solution until later on Tuesday into Wednesday, the large-scale pattern looks favorable for this to actually stay put over the SE US & not trend terribly far northward as usual with the ridge over the southern Rockies and into west Texas. That ridge will try to kick our system towards the south and east, obviously details are still unknown atm and this could still shoot way up into the lower OH valley and Apps...
Here's my first call map (if you want to call it that) lol. I worded everything carefully and did my best to include most potential solutions. Anywhere between the I-20 & I-70 corridors is still legitimately fair game, and the only area I feel even remotely confident is over the climatologically favored south-central Appalachians and far western piedmont of NC and south-central VA.
Here's my first call map (if you want to call it that) lol. I worded everything carefully and did my best to include most potential solutions. Anywhere between the I-20 & I-70 corridors is still legitimately fair game, and the only area I feel even remotely confident is over the climatologically favored south-central Appalachians and far western piedmont of NC and south-central VA.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
+1 totally agreeWebberweather53 link said:Although we probably can't be terribly certain about any specific solution until later on Tuesday into Wednesday, the large-scale pattern looks favorable for this to actually stay put over the SE US & not trend terribly far northward as usual with the ridge over the southern Rockies and into west Texas. That ridge will try to kick our system towards the south and east, obviously details are still unknown atm and this could still shoot way up into the lower OH valley and Apps...
Here's my first call map (if you want to call it that) lol. I worded everything carefully and did my best to include most potential solutions. Anywhere between the I-20 & I-70 corridors is still legitimately fair game, and the only area I feel even remotely confident is over the climatologically favored south-central Appalachians and far western piedmont of NC and south-central VA.
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chapelhillwx
Member
Hi everyone! Decided to use the same username as the other forum for continuity's sake even though I live in Winston now. Was posting the GEFS snow map but someone already beat me to it -- anyway, the trend upward in GEFS snow totals along with there being a fair number of suppressed members is really encouraging.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Gfs has 18-22 for wake county we might mix with some sleet. Especially over my way. The cmc has 1-3 the overnight euro did too. I would lean that way until something else supports the gfsSD link said:
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Just a little difference. At least they are all showing a storm.
Gfs has 18-22 for wake county we might mix with some sleet. Especially over my way. The cmc has 1-3 the overnight euro did too. I would lean that way until something else supports the gfsBrick Tamland link said:
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Just a little difference. At least they are all showing a storm.
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Yep that's the positive for us. Even if the wave is sheared we can do ok.
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NorthGaWinter
Guest
Here comes DR.NO
D
Deleted member 418
Guest
NorthGaWinter link said:
Or DR.YES
I see Allan just tweeted about the 1/6-7 1988 storm. It's a similar setup and it shows how you have to have wave separation and a consolidated wave to get high precip amounts
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
LovesSnowHatesRidges link said:
Or DR.YES
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I bet it will be Dr. Meh.
Wasn't the Jan 88 storm a long duration overrunning, instead of a wound up storm?SD link said:
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Mrgolf
Guest
SD link said:
SD, does any part of the gfs run look believable to you? Thats alot of snow for the south. I wasnt sure.
NorthBamaWeather
Member
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2016
- Messages
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The good ol DGEX sniffed these amounts out first. HaHa!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Mrgolf link said:
SD, does any part of the gfs run look believable to you? Thats alot of snow for the south. I wasnt sure.
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The setup is very possible. A lot of what the gfs is showing is ice on the southern side of it.
Wasn't the Jan 88 storm a long duration overrunning, instead of a wound up storm?Tarheel1 link said:
[/quote]
It was pretty similar to the gfs. A weak wave but mainly a moist flow aloft and dynamics.
Mrgolf link said:
SD, does any part of the gfs run look believable to you? Thats alot of snow for the south. I wasnt sure.
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It's certainly not out of the question. It's just on more prolific side of guidance and lacks support. If the shortwave in the NW is left intact you get the gfs result
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GeorgiaGirl link said:
SD, does any part of the gfs run look believable to you? Thats alot of snow for the south. I wasnt sure.
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The setup is very possible. A lot of what the gfs is showing is ice on the southern side of it.
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Very possible...I would put the ice/sleet line from Birmingham, Atlanta, to Raleigh. If some of those GEFS members had been at a higher resolution. we would have seen even crazier numbers in parts of the South.
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olhausen
Member
Oh man this is a beautiful map! I just got done reading 25 pages to catch up on these exciting snow developments for most of the board. This has truly been one of the most fun storms to track in years. I just want to say thank you to SD, Storm5 and all others who made this site possible after T.W went down. Here's to a a giant snow for all off us on the board.
Edit: I accidentally posted this in the January discussion thread so I will now post it over here also.
Edit: I accidentally posted this in the January discussion thread so I will now post it over here also.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Euro is rolling! Looks more attatched than the low around the lakes than the GFS.
I guess reality went out the door?
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yep, and if the Euro follows the GFS...Storm5 link said: