Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

ShowMeYourTDsDid someone just threaten' a Roy D Mercer ass whippin'? On a weather forum?


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I think so... Claimed he was a big fella....Other one asked how big a fella he was, and it took off from there

 

[Shawn]

TWC is forecasting highs in the 30s on Sat, Sun, and Mon so if it does snow, it's going to take some time to melt especially in the shaded areas.

You know what they say, if the snow is on the ground for 3 days, it's going to snow again.

I heard this one for the first time today "Winter thunder, snow seven days after"? If that is how it goes.

 

[Shawn]

You can't say that an event won't happen "just because it won't happen". It's against climo, yes but it doesn't mean it hasn't happened before and won't again, even if it's rare.

I suspect this low trends north, but don't be surprised if it doesn't.

 

[Shawn]

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Hahaha!

 

[Shawn]

Did someone just threaten' a Roy D Mercer ass whippin'? On a weather forum?


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By God they did


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[Shawn]

I think we should get into storm mode after the new model runs tonight

 

[Shawn]

It is just a model folks, chill out. Nobody but the good Lord knows for sure what is going to happen and certainly not a machine

 

[Shawn]

What is storm mode? Driving to the grocery store in a panic to buy milk, bread and batteries?

 

[Shawn]

I'll never forget the January 2011 snowstorm. There was snow on the ground for a week here ! Well, it was a mixture of snow and ice. Snow fell and then ice fell on top of it.

We lived at the bottom of a hill and couldn't get out of our neighborhood for a week. There was a threat for more snow a few days later and my kids were actually crying not wanting to be stuck any longer. We got a taste of life in the north with that storm!

 

[Shawn]

I think we should get into storm mode after the new model runs tonight

^This^

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[Shawn]

I think we should get into storm mode after the new model runs tonight

I second this. Also TWC has me barely getting above freezing Saturday and has lows Sunday/Monday in the mid-lower teens.

 

[Shawn]

Why storm mode?

 

[Shawn]

I'd wait until after 12z tomorrow. We should have a fairly clear picture then as our system will be fully on shore then.

 

[Shawn]

I think we should get into storm mode after the new model runs tonight

I hope they are good enough to force the issue, heh. So what are we looking out for in the runs, just the obvious stuff?

The Obvious: As someone earlier so eloquently stated... "You gotta keep 'em separated!"

Euro: Needs to let some cold air slip in before the precip. Also, still having precip would be nice...
EPS: Please show some members not as bad as the Euro OP.
NAM: Show us a good initial setup of the wave on the west coast.
GFS (0z): Don't go further south? Or would that strengthen the low and be good anyway? 18z trended a bit cooler at the surface, hope that trend continues. Last few nights, 0z GFS has been Buzz Killington.
GEFS (0z): Keep us awake waiting for Euro.
GFS Para (18z): Can it be better than the sexy 18z GFS?
Other models: Give us something to cling to as our world falls down around us. I'll take a blend of JMS + DGEX, because of all of my training!!

 

[Shawn]

Why storm mode?

This. Is the forum not doing its job? Everything seems to be clicking right along. The only reason to go into storm mode is if the forum is overloaded and is locked up.

 

[Shawn]

Good summation.


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[Shawn]

Which one is the better model for this event? The GFS Para or Euro?

 

[Shawn]

Keeping tabs on the server resources. I think we can manage to skip "storm mode" tonight, but who knows. This software handles high loads better due to some better file cacheing.

 

[Shawn]

Why storm mode?

This. Is the forum not doing its job? Everything seems to be clicking right along. The only reason to go into storm mode is if the forum is overloaded and is locked up.

It won't be locked up, once in storm mode the guests viewing will be blocked. I should have word it as, I think we should go in pre-storm mode [SMILING FACE WITH OPEN MOUTH]

 

[Shawn]

The only storm mode we might enter right now is post limiting, post moderation, 24 hr timeouts. We will be watching a bit closer over the next few days since we know emotions may run high as models move around. Just please play nice and don't threaten ass whoopins

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[Shawn]

That about killed me. I started laughing out loud and my fiancé was like what are you laughing at? That came out of nowhere !

 

[Shawn]

The only storm mode we might enter right now is post limiting, post moderation, 24 hr timeouts. We will be watching a bit closer over the next few days since we know emotions may run high as models move around.  Just please play nice and don't threaten ass whoopins

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It's funny that you have to say that.... Funny in a sad way.

 

[Shawn]

As far as storm track is concerned how much distance separates the GFS from the Euro run?

 

[Shawn]

That about killed me. I started laughing out loud and my fiancé was like what are you laughing at? That came out of nowhere !

I did the same thing and was laughing so loud my wife heard me from the garage.

 

[Shawn]

As far as storm track is concerned how much distance separates the GFS from the Euro run?

The euro/cmc/ukm/eps are quite a bit further NW than the gfs/gefs.

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[Shawn]

So who is placing bets tonight? Nam should start to paint a picture. Does the gfs hold or does it amp more and come a but north?

 

[Shawn]

That Canadian run was a thing of beauty earlier. I saved that to my camera roll and will look at when I get down. I can't even begin to tell yall how many clown maps I've saved just for fun. I just want one of them to verify for me one of these days!

 

[Shawn]

Watching closely from TN VALLEY! ?

 

[Shawn]

The only storm mode we might enter right now is post limiting, post moderation, 24 hr timeouts. We will be watching a bit closer over the next few days since we know emotions may run high as models move around.  Just please play nice and don't threaten ass whoopins

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It's funny that you have to say that.... Funny in a sad way.

Agree x1000

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[Shawn]

So who is placing bets tonight? Nam should start to paint a picture. Does the gfs hold or does it amp more and come a but north?

Fold. All hail...What am I saying...This models are all over the place


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[Shawn]

So who is placing bets tonight? Nam should start to paint a picture. Does the gfs hold or does it amp more and come a but north?

I'm guessing the American models come north.

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[Shawn]

Watching closely from TN VALLEY! ?

Same here! 

 

[Shawn]

Watching closely from TN VALLEY! ?

Me to. I'm just north of Knoxville


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[Shawn]

It's been a fun ride but the Nam and GFS are coming north tonight.


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[Shawn]

Americans come slightly north and warmer.

 

[Shawn]

I am in northern middle TN, so I need this thing to either come in much further NW...or have the Thursday night system overperform.

 

[Shawn]

GFS holds serve

 

[Shawn]

Americans come slightly north and warmer.

I'm with you on the north . but the euro is all alone with its warmer solution cause it drags butt with the NS . so I don't think they go to that extreme.

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[Shawn]

James Spann is in pre-storm mode...he posted up a picture of him getting bread and milk earlier today on Facebook...I think someone posted that here earlier

 

[Shawn]

Models should have better data tonight see if it makes any difference