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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Remember guys and ladies, the cold air will start settling in here before the low comes in. The Euro should not be warm at surface. That's why I'm blending the CMC with snowfall amounts and temps, the CMC and GFS agree with a colder solution.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Remember guys and ladies, the cold air will start settling in here before the low comes in. The Euro should not be warm at surface. That's why I'm blending the CMC with snowfall amounts and temps, the CMC and GFS agree with a colder solution.
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This
 
The last day of runs have not been good for the few of us up here in northern Tennessee. But the latest run of the euro did get us a little closer and actually gives middle and southern middle Tennessee some decent snow. Who knows though,with a northern trend I could be in the jackpot zone in a few runs. I will say this though. This has been one crazy storm to follow and hopefully we can get a board wide snow event out of this system when it's all said and done.
 
EPS Mean and control thru 90
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Deltadog03 said:
So who do believe, euro or the rest of the world  lol
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Hard not to believe the King Chris!! I havent looked back at all the post im curious to your thoughts about the Euro 12z
 
The EPS looks like it has a little better handle on temps and precip to me...I'm betting the details (low pressure and the like) are similar to the Euro.
 
whatalife said:
Storm5 said:
the eps is all over the map. supports all 12z Op runs lol

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LMBO!


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I mean there are literally enough solutions that support the cmc, gfs , ukmet and euro . it's funny

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Storm5 said:
the eps is all over the map. supports all 12z Op runs lol

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This is unprecedented but Brick was accurate earlier...... Euro is kind of throwing out everything with the attitude "hey it will eventually be right"
 
Storm5 said:
eps control is lock step with the euro op fwiw

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Well that doesn't surprise me  for some reason I just think the progressive northern flow is going to out race the energy like cmc and gfs show. We shall see.
 
Yeah, I think the Euro will slowly come around to some of the other models thinking... we shall see though. Either way, still looks good for a sizable winter storm for someone in the Southeast
 
There seems like there must be some better agreement with the EPS or the mean wouldn't have jumped so high. 2-2.5 inches on the mean of 51 members seems pretty good.
 
Storm5 said:
Oh and alot of misses as well

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Heck that tells me that its seeing a GFS like solution...Sounds like FFC is leaning toward a GFS solution.
 
So here is how you do it...chance of snow, then a chance of rain. High 38. ????hahahahaha
 
I also want to throw this out there...NO models did very good with this latest storm rainfall amounts...just saying...the models are ALL struggling.  CMC did the best I believe..hahaaha
 
Normally I would go back and look, but since TW is gone, does anyone remember the Christmas 2010 storm? I seem to remember every model 'losing' the storm pretty dramatically before it came back. Any similarities (or does anyone remember how the models went?)?
 
what's funny is the eps is usually rock steady inside 5 days. and it's been all over the place. I've never seen the ensembles flip so much at such a short lead

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FFC Disco:
LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Long term forecast largely overshadowed with winter weather
potential for late Friday into Saturday. As previously mentioned,
many contributing factors must align for accumulations to occur,
but models seem to be coming into better alignment with the
potential for accumulations. Winter precip looks to begin Friday
evening (well after school release time), and continue into the
overnight period. Have opted to increase pops for the 00z- 18z
period Saturday, and with model temperatures cooler than
previously forecast, this spreads snow chances farther south and
east with this forecast package. For now, given the uncertainty
with the placement of the moisture axis and the timing of the cold
air into the state, have opted to not include accumulations at
this time. Several ensemble model members are suggesting a couple
inches of snow, but others are going with no accumulations at all.
As far as the more mainstream deterministic models, the CMC has
the moisture axis farther north, across the Atlanta metro area and
northward, with the better chances across the far northern metro
counties. The GFS suggests accumulations are possible across the
Atlanta metro, but keeps the best axis south of the southernmost
metro counties. For the ECMWF, the contributing ingredients do
not appear to line up to promote snowfall accumulations.
Confidence in the forecast is increasing as the latest model runs
(and run- to- run solutions) seem to converge to a similar
solution, and expect this to continue into into late week.

After the winter system moves out of the area, temperatures remain
chilly, and any accumulations would likely stick around into late
weekend.
 
Storm5 said:
eps would argue the op is off with its precip presentation .
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That looks very gfs like with some cmc and ukie. Something just doesn't seem right with the euro op run. It could easily be right, but the eps argues it's likely not rright
 
campamy said:
Normally I would go back and look, but since TW is gone, does anyone remember the Christmas 2010 storm?  I seem to remember every model 'losing' the storm pretty dramatically before it came back.  Any similarities (or does anyone remember how the models went?)?
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I remember that storm, I believe GFS was correct on that storm, Euro finally came around
 
Storm5 said:
what's funny is the eps is usually rock steady inside 5 days. and it's been all over the place. I've never seen the ensembles flip so much at such a short lead

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You kknow me, I'm usually team euro all thethe way, but with very little eps support, I'm not sure the op is going to be correct. It may tho.
 
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