Storm5 said:
Reminds me of Hermine, ALL the models struggled with her and the euro certainly wasn't the king in that case, like it was with Joaquin.
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Reminds me of Hermine, ALL the models struggled with her and the euro certainly wasn't the king in that case, like it was with Joaquin.
campamy said:
The GFS Euro were in decent agreement at like days 6-7 held for a couple of days then they both lost the storm to the east only to trend back west in the last 24-36 hrs
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Storm5 said:
Like I said, it's like the Euro is throwing darts hoping something will stick.
I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture?
It\ said:
Lol
Brick Tamland said:
I could definitely agree with that Brick
SimeonNC
Member
Deltadog03 said:
Yes, but with above normal gulf waters convective feedback shouldn't rob us entirely.
whatalife
Moderator
Deltadog03 said:
I think I have a better chance of being drunk and hitting the target then the Dr being right but we'll see...LOL!
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mydoortotheworld
Member
Deltadog03 said:
did we overperform or underperform?
Snowflowxxl
Member
How do temps look on the EPS? Temps are gonna screw us
NorthBamaWeather
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Deltadog03 said:
I mentioned this yesterday. Models are throwing a good bit of convection along the Gulf Coast
Flo
Member
accu35 said:
What time?
Flo
Member
All the local mets in CAE seem to be on board with temps, but not sure about the precip.
Nam0806
Member
FLO said:
For the 18z GFS run it would be...
4:30-4:45 PM EST
3:30-3:45 PM CST
mydoortotheworld said:
I got like 6" of rain. Models were like 3-4" I believe ***
DadOfJax
Member
NorthBamaWeather said:
Just another issue we will have to face IF everything else goes good. While the odds are sure not in our favor, its fun as all get out to track it!
SimeonNC
Member
At this point, I recommend not giving any future model runs much weight until the 00z
Despite a great low track, the problem with the 12Z Euro being cold enough for a big hit in many areas is that there's no cold high coming in just before the low to provide enough low level cold air. It would be better in this case to have higher pressure to the north of it when it gets to the gulf coast (a ala 12Z GFS/JMA) as opposed to the bulk of the high being WNW of it as the 12Z Euro has.
Nam0806
Member
SimeonNC said:
They all deserve weight - because each run is a possible outcome, and you have to consider the current guidance. Granted, not all models deserve the same amount of weight, but each needs to be considered as a possible outcome.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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When the 18z GFS looks like the 12z Euro ! Next!
GaWx said:
Agreed Larry. If you notice the euro is kind of all alone on that one
richardjacks
Meteorologist
SD said:
Oh boy do I ever remember that one!
whatalife
Moderator
GaWx said:
Nice point.
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Flo
Member
What is everyone's gut say for the next GFS?
Storm5
Member
why on earth would you nextTarheel1 said:
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NWMSGuy
Member
I don’t want to ask a ridiculous question as I’m still learning but when is this system expected to interact with the northern stream over the northwest? If it doesn’t interact much or at all as currently expected wouldn't it have major implications on track, structure and strength of this system downhill?
SimeonNC
Member
nam0806 said:
True but I expect a shift in all the guidances from 00z onward due to new data.
Storm5
Member
at this point it does not matter. We have huge 00z runs tonight . Need see some improvementFLO said:
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FLO said:
Death by a thousand cuts.
Psalm 148:8
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BMX upgrades HWO to 2..... Demopolis to Alex City
whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 said:
Understatement of 2017 so far.
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Nam0806
Member
SimeonNC said:
Very good point. I'd definitely agree with that and didn't even think about it.
Storm5
Member
18z NAM has a nice look of course it's the 84 hour nam
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Flo
Member
Storm5 said:
Still learning. Why are 00z runs so important?
Storm5
Member
they have the new upper air data ingested . I believe 18z has some but not the full set like the 00z runsFLO said:
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Nam0806
Member
FLO said:
I think our wave will be moving onshore and it will become more properly sampled.
Storm5
Member
NWS bham
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NWS Peachtree City raised the POPS for my area to 50% for both Friday night and Saturday. Currently calling for a RN/SN mix with a low of 33 Friday night. That's certainly putting more weight in the GFS camp. Here's their long term discussion for the weekend storm:
.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Long term forecast largely overshadowed with winter weather
potential for late Friday into Saturday. As previously mentioned,
many contributing factors must align for accumulations to occur,
but models seem to be coming into better alignment with the
potential for accumulations. Winter precip looks to begin Friday
evening (well after school release time), and continue into the
overnight period. Have opted to increase pops for the 00z- 18z
period Saturday, and with model temperatures cooler than
previously forecast, this spreads snow chances farther south and
east with this forecast package. For now, given the uncertainty
with the placement of the moisture axis and the timing of the cold
air into the state, have opted to not include accumulations at
this time. Several ensemble model members are suggesting a couple
inches of snow, but others are going with no accumulations at all.
As far as the more mainstream deterministic models, the CMC has
the moisture axis farther north, across the Atlanta metro area and
northward, with the better chances across the far northern metro
counties. The GFS suggests accumulations are possible across the
Atlanta metro, but keeps the best axis south of the southernmost
metro counties. For the ECMWF, the contributing ingredients do
not appear to line up to promote snowfall accumulations.
Confidence in the forecast is increasing as the latest model runs
(and run- to- run solutions) seem to converge to a similar
solution, and expect this to continue into into late week.
After the winter system moves out of the area, temperatures remain
chilly, and any accumulations would likely stick around into late
weekend.
.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Long term forecast largely overshadowed with winter weather
potential for late Friday into Saturday. As previously mentioned,
many contributing factors must align for accumulations to occur,
but models seem to be coming into better alignment with the
potential for accumulations. Winter precip looks to begin Friday
evening (well after school release time), and continue into the
overnight period. Have opted to increase pops for the 00z- 18z
period Saturday, and with model temperatures cooler than
previously forecast, this spreads snow chances farther south and
east with this forecast package. For now, given the uncertainty
with the placement of the moisture axis and the timing of the cold
air into the state, have opted to not include accumulations at
this time. Several ensemble model members are suggesting a couple
inches of snow, but others are going with no accumulations at all.
As far as the more mainstream deterministic models, the CMC has
the moisture axis farther north, across the Atlanta metro area and
northward, with the better chances across the far northern metro
counties. The GFS suggests accumulations are possible across the
Atlanta metro, but keeps the best axis south of the southernmost
metro counties. For the ECMWF, the contributing ingredients do
not appear to line up to promote snowfall accumulations.
Confidence in the forecast is increasing as the latest model runs
(and run- to- run solutions) seem to converge to a similar
solution, and expect this to continue into into late week.
After the winter system moves out of the area, temperatures remain
chilly, and any accumulations would likely stick around into late
weekend.