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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

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Sweet! Low is on the boarder of GA/FL at 120.

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Need more separation. More cold chasing moisture. But it's got snow on NW side. Much better than 12z
 
We need more moisture from the low... so a stronger gulf low and stronger high. Both possible given this is the ecmwf.
 
Deltadog03 link said:
Need more separation. More cold chasing moisture. But it's got snow on NW side. Much better than 12z
Click to expand...
Yeah a little more seperation.

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Looks almost identical to that event January last year where most areas in N Ga got like 0.1-1" of snow!
 
Even gets CAE with some nice snows.  Neat.
 
this run is still suppressed in reality.  so we are making progress . by Wednesday it will be a DC smash job lol


JK .......kinda

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Storm5 link said:
this run is still suppressed in reality.  so we are making progress . by Wednesday it will be a DC smash job lol


JK .......kinda

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Click to expand...
HAHA!


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Another issue is the high isn't closer to the low. That high needs to be closer by to reinforce the cold air. We're still on the right track. Euro and CMC is decently consistent. That darn GFS needs to get better, which it will eventually.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
Another issue is the high isn't closer to the low. That high needs to be closer by to reinforce the cold air. We're still on the right track. Euro and CMC is decently consistent. That darn GFS needs to get better, which it will eventually.

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Click to expand...
I love your positive attitude. I sure hope you are right !
 
bouncycorn link said:
We need more moisture from the low... so a stronger gulf low and stronger high. Both possible given this is the ecmwf.
Click to expand...

You don't really need a stronger low to bring in more moisture though. Realistically, if the SLP track was to be right and it tracked over the FL panhandle, I would think lack of moisture would be the least of our worries.
 
What did euro show for the Thursday wave around the upstate precip wise?

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Bsudweather link said:
What did euro show for the Thursday wave around the upstate precip wise?

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Click to expand...
nothing , no precip east of the mountains till late Friday

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Weatherlover92 link said:
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg6769#msg6769 date=1483338343]
We need more moisture from the low... so a stronger gulf low and stronger high. Both possible given this is the ecmwf.
Click to expand...

You don't really need a stronger low to bring in more moisture though. Realistically, if the SLP track was to be right and it tracked over the FL panhandle, I would think lack of moisture would be the least of our worries.
[/quote]

So you think that if the SLP panned out as ECMWF projs it here, there'd be no lack of moisture as shown by the model?
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Bsudweather link=topic=80.msg6785#msg6785 date=1483338769]
What did euro show for the Thursday wave around the upstate precip wise?

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Click to expand...
nothing , no precip east of the mountains till late Friday

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[/quote]
So has that been pushed back, or just not being modeled now?

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I think that was a step in right direction. Need more separation of the streams and push of cold better. Nice Trent. The moisture will be there.
 
bouncycorn link said:
[quote author=Weatherlover92 link=topic=80.msg6784#msg6784 date=1483338731]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg6769#msg6769 date=1483338343]
We need more moisture from the low... so a stronger gulf low and stronger high. Both possible given this is the ecmwf.
Click to expand...

You don't really need a stronger low to bring in more moisture though. Realistically, if the SLP track was to be right and it tracked over the FL panhandle, I would think lack of moisture would be the least of our worries.
[/quote]

So you think that if the SLP panned out as ECMWF projs it here, there'd be no lack of moisture as shown by the model?
[/quote]
it's still suppressed.  verbatim the 00z track would lack good moisture . I want a little NW trend ..


kiss of death

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Bsudweather link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6786#msg6786 date=1483338845]
[quote author=Bsudweather link=topic=80.msg6785#msg6785 date=1483338769]
What did euro show for the Thursday wave around the upstate precip wise?

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Click to expand...
nothing , no precip east of the mountains till late Friday

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[/quote]
So has that been pushed back, or just not being modeled now?

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[/quote]
well I guess there is this lol
8e0e7a64d06d1da6f1b4cc3b842dcb48.jpg


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Deltadog03 link said:
I think that was a step in right direction. Need more separation of the streams and push of cold better. Nice Trent. The moisture will be there.
Click to expand...

So, we need more cold air now. It will show up tomorrow
 
Saw a post with the UKMET and it might be a hit with plenty of cold.  Of course we have limited imagery of it, but I see that it's a high probability of some okay snows.  Not a monster or anything.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6782#msg6782 date=1483338598]
Another issue is the high isn't closer to the low. That high needs to be closer by to reinforce the cold air. We're still on the right track. Euro and CMC is decently consistent. That darn GFS needs to get better, which it will eventually.

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Click to expand...
I love your positive attitude. I sure hope you are right !
[/quote]
Thanks! You have to have a positive attitude when it comes to the weather. And I hope I'm right too. I bet a lot of people think I'm wishcasting. I'm not
wishcasting at all, I'm realistically speaking.

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Bsudweather link=topic=80.msg6788#msg6788 date=1483338906]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6786#msg6786 date=1483338845]
[quote author=Bsudweather link=topic=80.msg6785#msg6785 date=1483338769]
What did euro show for the Thursday wave around the upstate precip wise?

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
nothing , no precip east of the mountains till late Friday

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
So has that been pushed back, or just not being modeled now?

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
well I guess there is this lol
8e0e7a64d06d1da6f1b4cc3b842dcb48.jpg


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[/quote]
Well I guess if you're on rocky top that's better than nothing lol! But it sure doesn't help me out.

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The high at 144 over eastern TX on the 0z Euro, that's where the high needs to be while the low is on the FL/GA boarder. The high and low will be working together, bringing in that cold north/northwesterly winds in here, reinforcing that cold air brotha's! There would be WAA over the eastern Carolina's but they would eventually change over to snow.

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bouncycorn link said:
[quote author=Weatherlover92 link=topic=80.msg6784#msg6784 date=1483338731]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg6769#msg6769 date=1483338343]
We need more moisture from the low... so a stronger gulf low and stronger high. Both possible given this is the ecmwf.
Click to expand...

You don't really need a stronger low to bring in more moisture though. Realistically, if the SLP track was to be right and it tracked over the FL panhandle, I would think lack of moisture would be the least of our worries.
[/quote]

So you think that if the SLP panned out as ECMWF projs it here, there'd be no lack of moisture as shown by the model?
[/quote]

No I don't. If we have a decent WSW flow aloft, it wouldn't take much for a weak SLP to pull in an ample amount of moisture from the GOM.
 
Weatherlover92 link said:
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg6787#msg6787 date=1483338851]
[quote author=Weatherlover92 link=topic=80.msg6784#msg6784 date=1483338731]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg6769#msg6769 date=1483338343]
We need more moisture from the low... so a stronger gulf low and stronger high. Both possible given this is the ecmwf.
Click to expand...

You don't really need a stronger low to bring in more moisture though. Realistically, if the SLP track was to be right and it tracked over the FL panhandle, I would think lack of moisture would be the least of our worries.
[/quote]

So you think that if the SLP panned out as ECMWF projs it here, there'd be no lack of moisture as shown by the model?
[/quote]

No I don't. If we have a decent WSW flow aloft, it wouldn't take much for a weak SLP to pull in an ample amount of moisture from the GOM.
[/quote]
Only thing that would limit moisture with a strong low on that track would be convection along the gulf.

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Weatherlover92 link said:
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg6787#msg6787 date=1483338851]
[quote author=Weatherlover92 link=topic=80.msg6784#msg6784 date=1483338731]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg6769#msg6769 date=1483338343]
We need more moisture from the low... so a stronger gulf low and stronger high. Both possible given this is the ecmwf.
Click to expand...

You don't really need a stronger low to bring in more moisture though. Realistically, if the SLP track was to be right and it tracked over the FL panhandle, I would think lack of moisture would be the least of our worries.
[/quote]

So you think that if the SLP panned out as ECMWF projs it here, there'd be no lack of moisture as shown by the model?
[/quote]

No I don't. If we have a decent WSW flow aloft, it wouldn't take much for a weak SLP to pull in an ample amount of moisture from the GOM.
[/quote]
I checked the SST around the northern Gulf earlier, the surface waters are warm. We would have good QPF levels. High QPF levels do not mean a strong LP.

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Anyone in here reading this thread late tonight, I will likely be pushing an update soon to the forum.  If things break, things will be reverted and returned to normal.  IF you have a major problem where the site is not working and can't post, type, etc... please send an email to: support (at) southernwx.com
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Weatherlover92 link=topic=80.msg6797#msg6797 date=1483339414]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg6787#msg6787 date=1483338851]
[quote author=Weatherlover92 link=topic=80.msg6784#msg6784 date=1483338731]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg6769#msg6769 date=1483338343]
We need more moisture from the low... so a stronger gulf low and stronger high. Both possible given this is the ecmwf.
Click to expand...

You don't really need a stronger low to bring in more moisture though. Realistically, if the SLP track was to be right and it tracked over the FL panhandle, I would think lack of moisture would be the least of our worries.
[/quote]

So you think that if the SLP panned out as ECMWF projs it here, there'd be no lack of moisture as shown by the model?
[/quote]

No I don't. If we have a decent WSW flow aloft, it wouldn't take much for a weak SLP to pull in an ample amount of moisture from the GOM.
[/quote]
I checked the SST around the northern Gulf earlier, the surface waters are warm. We would have good QPF levels. High QPF levels do not mean a strong LP.

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[/quote]
Sure. My only issue was that the 00z showed lack of moisture even with the high pressure pretty far away.


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Remember Larrys rule about the flow at 500mb (well not his rule, but great observation) euro and cmc turn it SW. The moisture will be there. Imo.
 
This is a test post to check site is back and going.
 
Test

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