Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

SnowHusky · Dec 31, 2016

Anyway, the NWS has a chance for rain and snow Thursday night through Saturday atm for my area. I'm not trying to be a smart butt from my posts. I like to compare past model runs with current model runs. I'm not the type of forecaster that just throws out old model runs. That's just my style of predicting the weather. It's important to compare old model runs with current runs cause you'll be able to see what has changed, and what has not changed. I'm trying to keep a positive attitude around here, you have to when it comes to weather forecasting and keep the disscution positive. That's why we're here.

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GeorgiaGirl · Dec 31, 2016

Hahaha the 18z GEFS ensembles, if a couple of them actually verify, I'd be satisfied for a couple of years after it.

e5 and e15 are pretty ridiculous...

ForsythSnow · Dec 31, 2016

GeorgiaGirl link said:
Hahaha the 18z GEFS ensembles, if a couple of them actually verify, I'd be satisfied for a couple of years after it.

e5 and e15 are pretty ridiculous...

e5 would be a record breaking storm for Tallahassee, as it gives them about 6". But looking at the individual members, my area gets some snow from all but one member, which looks great. Hope the trend continues.

GaWx · Dec 31, 2016

ForsythSnow link said:
[quote author=GeorgiaGirl link=topic=80.msg5833#msg5833 date=1483236526]
Hahaha the 18z GEFS ensembles, if a couple of them actually verify, I'd be satisfied for a couple of years after it.

e5 and e15 are pretty ridiculous...

e5 would be a record breaking storm for Tallahassee, as it gives them about 6". But looking at the individual members, my area gets some snow from all but one member, which looks great. Hope the trend continues.
[/quote]

Do you mean on the 18Z GEFS or somewhere else? I don't see snow at TLH on the 18Z GEFS e5.

ForsythSnow · Dec 31, 2016

GaWx link said:
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=80.msg5837#msg5837 date=1483237878]
[quote author=GeorgiaGirl link=topic=80.msg5833#msg5833 date=1483236526]
Hahaha the 18z GEFS ensembles, if a couple of them actually verify, I'd be satisfied for a couple of years after it.

e5 and e15 are pretty ridiculous...

e5 would be a record breaking storm for Tallahassee, as it gives them about 6". But looking at the individual members, my area gets some snow from all but one member, which looks great. Hope the trend continues.
[/quote]

Do you mean on the 18Z GEFS or somewhere else? I don't see snow at TLH on the 18Z GEFS e5.
[/quote]
Yeah, the 18Z GEFS, image from the other board.

GaWx · Dec 31, 2016

ForsythSnow link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg5843#msg5843 date=1483240245]
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=80.msg5837#msg5837 date=1483237878]
[quote author=GeorgiaGirl link=topic=80.msg5833#msg5833 date=1483236526]
Hahaha the 18z GEFS ensembles, if a couple of them actually verify, I'd be satisfied for a couple of years after it.

e5 and e15 are pretty ridiculous...

e5 would be a record breaking storm for Tallahassee, as it gives them about 6". But looking at the individual members, my area gets some snow from all but one member, which looks great. Hope the trend continues.
[/quote]

Do you mean on the 18Z GEFS or somewhere else? I don't see snow at TLH on the 18Z GEFS e5.
[/quote]
Yeah, the 18Z GEFS, image from the other board.

[/quote]

Thanks. What I saw was only through your 192. That's why I was confused. Yeah, bring on e5. Even I would get the very rare 3" or 0.30" ZR or whatever it is showing for here!

bouncycorn · Dec 31, 2016

Just got home from work. Now the GFS tosses the system we've been waiting for and puts another fantasy for Tuesday? What on earth?

bouncycorn · Dec 31, 2016

Afraid there won't be a second system. No GEFS or EPS Member has a storm on MOnday-Tuesday.

Weatherlover92 · Dec 31, 2016

ForsythSnow link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg5843#msg5843 date=1483240245]
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=80.msg5837#msg5837 date=1483237878]
[quote author=GeorgiaGirl link=topic=80.msg5833#msg5833 date=1483236526]
Hahaha the 18z GEFS ensembles, if a couple of them actually verify, I'd be satisfied for a couple of years after it.

e5 and e15 are pretty ridiculous...

e5 would be a record breaking storm for Tallahassee, as it gives them about 6". But looking at the individual members, my area gets some snow from all but one member, which looks great. Hope the trend continues.
[/quote]

Do you mean on the 18Z GEFS or somewhere else? I don't see snow at TLH on the 18Z GEFS e5.
[/quote]
Yeah, the 18Z GEFS, image from the other board.

[/quote]

Dang, 18 out of 20 ensemble members (e1 -e7; e9- e13; e15 - e20) have snowfall down to ATL. I don't think I've seen anything like that at such a long lead time several days out.

Also, I'm giving a hell yeah to e5 please lol.

EDIT: Even the mean of 2-3 inches here is very impressive this far out.

ForsythSnow · Dec 31, 2016

0Z has started. Let's see where it goes this time. Probably somewhere entirely new.

GeorgiaGirl · Dec 31, 2016

That's actually through the whole GEFS model run and apparently it's showing another storm near the end of the run.

The one on here is right but I'm having trouble reading it as it's pretty small. If I'm reading it right, half of them show some sort of wintry weather here. Not all of them are great though.

bouncycorn · Dec 31, 2016

Here comes 00z... Quite a few differences at h5 from 18z run as of hr 60.

ForsythSnow · Dec 31, 2016

Energy keeps ticking north off the West coast, and -NAO block keeps ticking westward.

SnowHusky · Dec 31, 2016

bouncycorn link said:
Here comes 00z... Quite a few differences at h5 from 18z run as of hr 60.

Colder at hr 60 than the 18z GFS.

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bouncycorn · Dec 31, 2016

With every run the entire h5 shifts back north and west from the earlier run. :

Storm5 · Dec 31, 2016

I mean are we really surprised with the different H5 looks ?

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bouncycorn · Dec 31, 2016

Pacific trough is even more disconnected from the 50/50 this run so far. As of 81.

whatalife · Dec 31, 2016

Storm5 link said:
I mean are we really surprised with the different H5 looks ?

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Nope...

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WeatherDawg87 · Dec 31, 2016

GaWx link said:
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=80.msg5847#msg5847 date=1483240492]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg5843#msg5843 date=1483240245]
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=80.msg5837#msg5837 date=1483237878]
[quote author=GeorgiaGirl link=topic=80.msg5833#msg5833 date=1483236526]
Hahaha the 18z GEFS ensembles, if a couple of them actually verify, I'd be satisfied for a couple of years after it.

e5 and e15 are pretty ridiculous...

e5 would be a record breaking storm for Tallahassee, as it gives them about 6". But looking at the individual members, my area gets some snow from all but one member, which looks great. Hope the trend continues.
[/quote]

Do you mean on the 18Z GEFS or somewhere else? I don't see snow at TLH on the 18Z GEFS e5.
[/quote]
Yeah, the 18Z GEFS, image from the other board.

[/quote]

Thanks. What I saw was only through your 192. That's why I was confused. Yeah, bring on e5. Even I would get the very rare 3" or 0.30" ZR or whatever it is showing for here!
[/quote]
E5 appears to be super similar to the track from the famous Feb. 1973 storm.

bouncycorn · Dec 31, 2016

Western ridge is stronger as of 87 hrs. Could be good news.