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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Man, I really wanted the new forum theme/layout / system to work but Tapatalk won't work right through it. :(  Can see the post fine Chris. :D
 
Hey Shawn is there a way to have a refresh , to upload pages to fresh post? Thanks
 
accu35 link said:
Hey Shawn is there a way to have a refresh , to upload pages to fresh post? Thanks
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I'd love to have that, but not on this software.. a feasible way at least.  We'll get the new stuff to work eventually, I just don't want to muck something up bad with a potential Wintry event soon.
 
Heavy rain added.

222.png
 
6z says...."0z, you crazy"
Lots like 18z run


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farleydawg79 link said:
6z says...."0z, you crazy"
Lots like 18z run


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Well, at least the GFS is back to its senses (for now). I just hope that the big shifts have settled down and we are getting a better idea of what to expect.
 
I thought about doing a paper on how pre-events can hurt grocery store sales and increase wrecks. They are often modeled with less uncertainty and attention out ahead of big dogs. 

1-3" from Wilkesboro to Raleigh would be severe combined with the cold people would not be able to prepare for a weekend deluge of ice or snow.

The public is often mislead with forecasters focusing on the uncertainty of the EURO having trouble on smaller scale systems/amounts when they need to focus more on impacts of dangerous travel. Too many times have I seen TV stations use "low probabilities" because they don't wanna hype low amounts. This is very misleading and dangerous. Source: People of Wal-Mart.
 
Man if only the board was awake, what a run. I believe we are settling down hopefully with the shift, start trending better since we are only few days awake from a possible winter storm
 
Long time lurker and learning so much from all you guys! Loved waking up to these new model runs. Here's to hoping they stick and/or improve!

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Much better run from the 06z GFS. The 0z had the low at a terrible track that was completely incorrect. Much better with the 06z, much better.

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Olaf link said:
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=80.msg6817#msg6817 date=1483354869]
Holy Miller A. All snow for me ;D
gfs_asnow_seus_27.png
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O.O Oh.my. That would make everyone happy...
[/quote]
Of course, some of that would be IP and ZR, especially on the southern end.


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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
Much better run from the 06z GFS. The 0z had the low at a terrible track that was completely incorrect. Much better with the 06z, much better.

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We are getting closer now, as Saturday is only 5 days away. We should know by Wednesday for sure.
 
farleydawg79 link said:
[quote author=Olaf link=topic=80.msg6823#msg6823 date=1483355688]
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=80.msg6817#msg6817 date=1483354869]
Holy Miller A. All snow for me ;D
gfs_asnow_seus_27.png
Click to expand...

O.O Oh.my. That would make everyone happy...
[/quote]
Of course, some of that would be IP and ZR, especially on the southern end.


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[/quote]
South of what looks like Alpharetta area has ice per Pivotalweather.
 
farleydawg79 link said:
[quote author=Olaf link=topic=80.msg6823#msg6823 date=1483355688]
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=80.msg6817#msg6817 date=1483354869]
Holy Miller A. All snow for me ;D
gfs_asnow_seus_27.png
Click to expand...

O.O Oh.my. That would make everyone happy...
[/quote]
Of course, some of that would be IP and ZR, especially on the southern end.


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[/quote]

Okay then...if that's ice in my area...apocalypse
 
Olaf link said:
[quote author=farleydawg79 link=topic=80.msg6825#msg6825 date=1483355746]
[quote author=Olaf link=topic=80.msg6823#msg6823 date=1483355688]
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=80.msg6817#msg6817 date=1483354869]
Holy Miller A. All snow for me ;D
gfs_asnow_seus_27.png
Click to expand...

O.O Oh.my. That would make everyone happy...
[/quote]
Of course, some of that would be IP and ZR, especially on the southern end.


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[/quote]

Okay then...if that's ice in my area...apocalypse
[/quote]
Ice map
zr_acc.us_se.png
 
Down further closer to ATL and south would be ZR, north of ATL would be IP and snow.

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A lot of people would be miserable not happy with an inch of ice. Also, Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh would not escape the warm nose at least some ice as it is often underplayed and already shown a tick south of these metros....any forward north trends this week can easily send that warm nose to the VA border. Lots of uncertainties in pytpe/amounts.
 
farleydawg79 link said:
4ad2d9e307c66643c5d049774e896bd4.png


a70ab93bce333775ca09692e799167d7.png



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So..4+ inches of snow and .50 freezing rain? Owww.

Maybe the models will start trending towards agreement since we are getting closer.
 
The 06z GFS run is very much like the 18z from Sun and Sat. 0z run. That makes it 3 runs of the same ideal setup. 

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Wow, still no update from the NWS out of Peachtree City, GA. They've should've updated over night. There is model agreement with past GFS model runs and with Euro and CMC. We are 5 days away from the event, it's more and more likely that there will be significant winter weather across the south within 5 days.

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Yes I just noticed that too. Glad your here! Where's everbody at? How can they sleep? Lol!!
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
Wow, still no update from the NWS out of Peachtree City, GA. They've should've updated over night. There is model agreement with past GFS model runs and with Euro and CMC. We are 5 days away from the event, it's more and more likely that there will be significant winter weather across the south within 5 days.

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Well, they updated and they are going with model uncertainty and keeping in slight chance rain/snow. I guess we have to wait a little longer before they bite.
 
Looking for an overnight 0z EPS report from someone with access.  Arguably the best model.  I'm very interested to see what they look like.
 
CummingWx link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6837#msg6837 date=1483358868]
Wow, still no update from the NWS out of Peachtree City, GA. They've should've updated over night. There is model agreement with past GFS model runs and with Euro and CMC. We are 5 days away from the event, it's more and more likely that there will be significant winter weather across the south within 5 days.

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Well, they updated and they are going with model uncertainty and keeping in slight chance rain/snow. I guess we have to wait a little longer before they bite.
[/quote]
Opppsss, didn't refresh the page. Yup, the NWS has a chance of rain/snow Thur night Sat night.

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so the the winter weather is suppose to start coming in Thursday night/Friday am or is it now on Saturday?  I coach HS bball and trying to get idea of which games will be postponed for this weekend
 
packfan98 link said:
Looking for an overnight 0z EPS report from someone with access.  Arguably the best model.  I'm very interested to see what they look like.
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0Z EPS Mean
037d7d9112a8875d932a641621fc4ebb.png

0Z EPS Control
8d32288eadd7702e4cd8b9d205ad1a6b.png


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