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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

If we go back to the 0z GFS from today, the energy was further south and there is a transfer to the Gulf coastal low at 180. That is the low that I've been talking about. Some energy in the western Gulf from the frontal boundary. That's we're the actual low forms.

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SD link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg5787#msg5787 date=1483229016]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5784#msg5784 date=1483228857]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg5783#msg5783 date=1483228701]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5780#msg5780 date=1483228451]
I have 17 of 21 what can go wrong lol

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15 and 3, please. The control even.
[/quote]
Those are mic droppers on winter lol. I'd take anything

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I'm just a little excited.
aoHFoG.gif

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Is this a live feed from storms house

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hahah no.....I'm just preparing for the 00z runs https://vimeo.com/197646615

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18z DGEX is similar from the 0z GFS from today...but the DGEX doesn't have a consolidated low like the 0z GFS. The 0z GFS from today has it along the Gulf coast. The low becomes consolidated at 174 on the 18z DGEX which is off the NC coast. The placement of the energy is correct from the 18z DGEX.

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I'm still trying to figure out why we are still talking about the 00z run. I guess cause it was so unrealistic with snow totals that's it's still in people's head

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Storm5 link said:
I'm still trying to figure out why we are still talking about the 00z run. I guess cause it was so unrealistic with snow totals that's it's still in people's head

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Click to expand...
  Yes, it was a "run for the ages". One thing I have noticed living here for 52 years is 1) The NW trend that seems to affect some storms but not all. 2) The push of cold air is never quite as strong once you get closer to verification time. 3) If you are in the "bulls-eye" seven days out, you are not there when it's "storm-time".
  All that being said, I like the strung-out suppressed look at this range. It gives us some latitude to work with. However, I believe that we will see a more consolidated storm before all is said and done. Question is which piece of energy will it be?
 
Storm5 link said:
I'm still trying to figure out why we are still talking about the 00z run. I guess cause it was so unrealistic with snow totals that's it's still in people's head

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I still talk about it cause, just because a past model run is not a current run that doesn't mean that it's not a vaild run. Also, it makes better since of the track of low considering that the NAO is projected to go negative at the beginning of the event time period. The 18z DGEX supports the 0z GFS from today.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5802#msg5802 date=1483232268]
I'm still trying to figure out why we are still talking about the 00z run. I guess cause it was so unrealistic with snow totals that's it's still in people's head

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Click to expand...
I still talk about it cause, just because a past model run is not a current run that doesn't mean that it's not a vaild run. Also, it makes better since of the track of low considering that the NAO is projected to go negative at the beginning of the event time period. The 18z DGEX supports the 0z GFS from today.

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[/quote]
omgd your using the dgex to support a crazy OP run ??? If there isn't consolidated energy there won't be a low

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the only thing worse than talking about the unrealistic 0z GFS is talking about the even more unrealistic DGEX lmfao
 
Brent link said:
the only thing worse than talking about the unrealistic 0z GFS is talking about the even more unrealistic DGEX lmfao
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Hahaha welcome to winter

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5808#msg5808 date=1483232912]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5802#msg5802 date=1483232268]
I'm still trying to figure out why we are still talking about the 00z run. I guess cause it was so unrealistic with snow totals that's it's still in people's head

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Click to expand...
I still talk about it cause, just because a past model run is not a current run that doesn't mean that it's not a vaild run. Also, it makes better since of the track of low considering that the NAO is projected to go negative at the beginning of the event time period. The 18z DGEX supports the 0z GFS from today.

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[/quote]
omgd your using the dgex to support a crazy OP run ??? If there isn't consolidated energy there won't be a low

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[/quote]
The totals from the 0z GFS from today was crazy, yes, I agree. I'm not even focusing on the totals. I'm more focused on placement of the high, shield of the moisture and thickness values. What ever models agree with each other the most of, the more likely  that's what the outcome will be. Storm5, I'm not trying to bash you.

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5808#msg5808 date=1483232912]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5802#msg5802 date=1483232268]
I'm still trying to figure out why we are still talking about the 00z run. I guess cause it was so unrealistic with snow totals that's it's still in people's head

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Click to expand...
I still talk about it cause, just because a past model run is not a current run that doesn't mean that it's not a vaild run. Also, it makes better since of the track of low considering that the NAO is projected to go negative at the beginning of the event time period. The 18z DGEX supports the 0z GFS from today.

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[/quote]
omgd your using the dgex to support a crazy OP run ??? If there isn't consolidated energy there won't be a low

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[/quote]

Anything goes when you try to justify your wishcast!
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5810#msg5810 date=1483233504]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5808#msg5808 date=1483232912]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5802#msg5802 date=1483232268]
I'm still trying to figure out why we are still talking about the 00z run. I guess cause it was so unrealistic with snow totals that's it's still in people's head

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I still talk about it cause, just because a past model run is not a current run that doesn't mean that it's not a vaild run. Also, it makes better since of the track of low considering that the NAO is projected to go negative at the beginning of the event time period. The 18z DGEX supports the 0z GFS from today.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
omgd your using the dgex to support a crazy OP run ??? If there isn't consolidated energy there won't be a low

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
The totals from the 0z GFS from today was crazy, yes, I agree. I'm not even focusing on the totals. I'm more focused on placement of the high, shield of the moisture and thickness values. What ever models agree with each other the most of, the more likely  that's what the outcome will be. Storm5, I'm not trying to bash you.

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[/quote]

That couldn't be further from the truth. For example, the DGEX, JMA, GEM could all agree on one scenario, and the GFS and Euro agree on a different....what is more likely the outome?
 
Anyone seen the latest para?  The latest one I could find is 0z from yesterday. Pretty good ice for my area!
 
It takes time for the GFS/EURO to agree on something a couple days before the event.
 
Aubighitter link said:
Anyone seen the latest para?  The latest one I could find is 0z from yesterday. Pretty good ice for my area!
Click to expand...

Starting at hrs 180-192
 
Have a feeling like this GFS run will be cold/ dry however, I am not throwing in the towel before we are in 3 to 5 day range where storm disappear!
 
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