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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016123012/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.png
 
Storm5 link said:
Lots of gefs members are developing the main wave we have been watching this run

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Are you talking about the first wave on Thursday?
 
all most members develop a system . some nasty looking miller Bs and a few app runners

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Aubighitter link said:
My bad I thought it was new.  Lots of chances upcoming though??
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Yeah for some reason the para hasn't undated since yesterday

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After comparing the 12z GFS and the 18z the low doesn't come up because of the suppression. The high is further south than 12z GFS. The positions that the high is from the 12z is what we want. The energy out west is important but that's not where the low will be coming out of. The low should actually be coming up at the tail end of that frontal boundary. See the moisture down in the western Gulf on the 18z? That's where the low should be coming up but it can't cause of that high is too far south. Some of the things from the 18z is not right IMO. The energy that you guys are looking at finely gets kicked down at 168-174. That wave is a separate threat from the 18z run.

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Lots of wintry solutions for the SE this run of the gefs late next week.

the gefs does not support the 18z op run

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Glad To See All My Weather Model  Watching Friends Get Back Together Again !!! Happy 2017 Model Watching !!! And Happy Happy 2017 New Year !!! :)
 
Well, counted 15 members with snowfall (gfs, some ice of course) for the Midlands of SC.    Best ensemble run yet if you live around these parts.
 
tellicowx link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg5742#msg5742 date=1483225369]
& there's a fourth system in fantasy land ~ 15th. Wow...
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What was you thought Webber, with the progression and stalling of the second wave?

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[/quote]

There's a ridiculous amount of uncertainty, the shortwave now just off the west coast of British Columbia will move directly over a few more upper air stations later tonight and it will be interesting to see how guidance reacts again to this new data once its ingested into them on their 0z runs... Looks like we may also see this interact some with an ULL over the north-central Pacific stuck underneath a huge Rex Block over Alaska...
 
18z GEFS probability of snowfall greater than 1 inch (this is actually the best run yet for many!):

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I actually like that GEFS run and lot of southern solutions with the second wave popping along the Gulf or off the SE coast.

DO NOT let Brick look at E15

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I can already tell my productivity at work will be around 50% of normal next week

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
After comparing the 12z GFS and the 18z the low doesn't come up because of the suppression. The high is further south than 12z GFS. The positions that the high is from the 12z is what we want. The energy out west is important but that's not where the low will be coming out of. The low should actually be coming up at the tail end of that frontal boundary. See the moisture down in the western Gulf on the 18z? That's where the low should be coming up but it can't cause of that high is too far south. Some of the things from the 18z is not right IMO. The energy that you guys are looking at finely gets kicked down at 168-174. That wave is a separate threat from the 18z run.

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the energy we are talking is the key energy to what we have been talking for the last 48 hours

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