Post maps so I can see that beaut for fun!
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whatalife
Moderator
Parker link said:
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farleydawg79
Guest
Thanks. Light total for me over in Athens.bouncycorn link said:
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RollTide18
Member
whatalife link said:
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Ya know, I've always had a thing for Canada ?
3 inches inches for Montgomery, holy cow.
Storm5
Member
I fear the NW trend already. let's see what the gefs looks like in a little bit
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The run-to-run variability in the guidance is absolutely hilarious, if you're living run-to-run on the guidance, you're definitely doing yourself a disservice here lol... The uncertainty here is pretty extreme even for a 5-7 day forecast. If the 2-3 day shifts in timing and several hundred mile alteration in low pressure track doesnt tell u something...
Bsudweather
Member
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Anyone else notice that the 1st wave for the Carolinas Thursday was gone on the 0z gfs?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Bsudweather link said:
No, it was still there... Produced ~ trace-0.5" of snow across the central portion of the state
stboo6
Member
Thanks for all your input guys.
Been following TW for year's.
Love some winter mischief.
Carry on.
Been following TW for year's.
Love some winter mischief.
Carry on.
Bsudweather
Member
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Webberweather53 link said:
No, it was still there... Produced ~ trace-0.5" of snow across the central portion of the state
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It wasn't there for upstate sc like the 18z showed.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If these trends start happening Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night on the Tue 12z and 0z Wed runs, then I'll be concerned
whatalife
Moderator
Now you're just trying to scare people. LOL!Storm5 link said:
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Are you wishcasting or legitimately believe that solution will verify?NorthGAWinterWx link said:
olhausen
Member
I'm probably the only one on this forum that likes this gfs run. Thing is though is that it will change by the next run and the one after that. So to all you cliff jumpers out there you might want to take a step back and just relax a little. 
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whatalife link said:
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[/quote] Ouch. That's a pretty nasty dry slot over North GA.
SimeonNC
Member
I have a feeling that this OP is an outlier and that the GEFS won't support it.
Hey that doesn't look that bad for North GA either.olhausen link said:I'm probably the only one on this forum that likes this gfs run. Thing is though is that it will change by the next run and the one after that. So to all you cliff jumpers out there you might want to take a step back and just relax a little.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Bsudweather link said:
No, it was still there... Produced ~ trace-0.5" of snow across the central portion of the state
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It wasn't there for upstate sc like the 18z showed.
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Don't become enthralled into mesoscale storm features several days out, especially when the features that will lead to this storm are still largely beyond the confines of the playing field. #beatingadeadhorse
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
I think the 00z UK is still on the suppressed route, so that could still be a possibility. I think Webber said it best it could be Tuesday/Tuesday night before we get a clear consensus on this. We just went from a Miller A storm at 18z to a cutter at 00z, so much for that great consistency lol.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Hey that doesn't look that bad for North GA either.SoutheastRidge link said:[quote author=olhausen link=topic=80.msg6691#msg6691 date=1483332589]
I'm probably the only one on this forum that likes this gfs run. Thing is though is that it will change by the next run and the one after that. So to all you cliff jumpers out there you might want to take a step back and just relax a little.
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[/quote]
yeah but all of that, at least in NGA, is ice, not snow
Hey that doesn't look that bad for North GA either.mydoortotheworld link said:[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6696#msg6696 date=1483332816]
[quote author=olhausen link=topic=80.msg6691#msg6691 date=1483332589]
I'm probably the only one on this forum that likes this gfs run. Thing is though is that it will change by the next run and the one after that. So to all you cliff jumpers out there you might want to take a step back and just relax a little.
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[/quote]
yeah but all of that, at least in NGA, is ice, not snow
[/quote] Well heck, at least its SOMETHING. Everyone on here had me all freaked out acting like this run was all rain in GA. I wonder if that is Sleet or Freezing Rain in N GA ?
I would take it, drop south another 50 miles and I would love it! LOL!olhausen link said:I'm probably the only one on this forum that likes this gfs run. Thing is though is that it will change by the next run and the one after that. So to all you cliff jumpers out there you might want to take a step back and just relax a little.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Weatherlover92 link said:
I think the 00z UK is still on the suppressed route, so that could still be a possibility. I think Webber said it best it could be Tuesday/Tuesday night before we get a clear consensus on this. We just went from a Miller A storm at 18z to a cutter at 00z, so much for that great consistency lol.
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Really looks Miller Bish to me on what I saw and it does look a little strange with both a high pressure and blocking involved. It's just so late that the high pressure eventually leaves.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Weatherlover92 link said:
I think the 00z UK is still on the suppressed route, so that could still be a possibility. I think Webber said it best it could be Tuesday/Tuesday night before we get a clear consensus on this. We just went from a Miller A storm at 18z to a cutter at 00z, so much for that great consistency lol.
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Yep, the upper level low north of Hawaii interacting with our trough over the Pacific northwest is causing the unusually large uncertainties and windshield wiper-esque alterations from run to run in the models... This feature probably won't be adequately sampled at any point in time :/ I sure hope we initialize it right in a few days...
Storm5
Member
00z gefs looks pretty sexy
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ghost1
Member
So the latest GooFuS throw out the all too familiar NW trend but the CMC keeps the party going but it's also got a poor track record this far out. How close to the event does the CMC need to get to where it's reliability can be counted on? 96 hrs? 72? 48?
Stormlover
Member
The RGEM, the short range canadian is much better...what is it 48?ghost1 link said:
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farleydawg79
Guest
For anyone specific?Storm5 link said:
I really need to get a wx bell subscription....
ATLwxfan
Member
But will you leave your wife for her? LOLStorm5 link said:
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Storm5
Member
But will you leave your wife for her? LOLATLWxFan link said:
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depends on which gefs member is promised to me .....
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ghost1
Member
The RGEM, the short range canadian is much better...what is it 48?Stormlover link said:
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Thanks SL... but not sure if I have a link for it. Is it on pay sites only?
Storm5
Member
For anyone specific?farleydawg79 link said:
I really need to get a wx bell subscription....
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Lots of hits . not much support for the gfs op
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GEFS totally different from GFS. We toss the 00Z GFS!
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farleydawg79
Guest
For anyone specific?Storm5 link said:
I really need to get a wx bell subscription....
[/quote]
Lots of hits . not much support for the gfs op
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Thanks Storm
Storm5
Member
But will you leave your wife for her? LOLStorm5 link said:
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depends on which gefs member is promised to me .....
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and I never said I would leave her. I said I would loan her out
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Stormlover
Member
For anyone specific?Storm5 link said:
I really need to get a wx bell subscription....
[/quote]
Lots of hits . not much support for the gfs op
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[/quote]
The RGEM, the short range canadian is much better...what is it 48?ghost1 link said:
[/quote]
Thanks SL... but not sure if I have a link for it. Is it on pay sites only?
[/quote]No, it's on many places, like the official Canadian weather site, and here is another http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem
Storm5
Member
it still has some support though . I counted 4 supporting members . but in general it was a good runbouncycorn link said:
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NCSNOW
Member
Gefs mean looks good says op to far north. 18z para is a NC dream job just like 18z op.