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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Storm5 link said:
gfs looks clueless with the energy in the NW. moves it Stalls it, then has no idea when or where to send it

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I th8nk this is the kind of setup the UKMET do3s better with. Still, looks pretty good for here.
 
Storm5 link said:
gfs looks clueless with the energy in the NW. moves it Stalls it, then has no idea when or where to send it

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Crazy different!  Haven't looked at the surface at all, kinda pointless.  Maybe if I drink enough to bring in the New Year I will get us a score.  Happy New Year everyone :)
 
WXinCanton link said:
Like Storm5 said, our energy is in Montana, lol
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Because it moves the parent low in the Pacific into the West and NW before breaking off the second piece. That delay cuts the second wave into Montana. The high in the plains is also a lot stronger following the first wave, allowing the second to cut over the top instead of tucking underneath like the 12z solution.

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Actually, I honestly have no clue what the 18z is even trying to do now lol...somehow it still manages to pop the second low off SE coast. Think GFS has started celebrating the New Year a little early lol

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That really threw me for a loop, if "potential" second wave does happen then we're a good week away to watch this. Definitely fun times ahead
 
One two punch for NC it seems. Still time for that second wave to blow up into something big.
 
Odd run.  Lets see if that energy getting "stalled" back there so long on Wave #2 continues to show.  Only last night's 00z runs started to hold it back longer.
 
I know this sounds like wishcasting but I don't buy the 18z just losing the energy in Montana for a long time like that, suppression at this point yes but the energy just stalling? No. I'm gonna wait and see what the GEFS and the 00z runs do, if the stalling trend repeats then I'l buy it.
 
The way it's going, we might be tracking this storm the whole month of January ??
 
Shawn link said:
Odd run.  Lets see if that energy getting "stalled" back there so long on Wave #2 continues to show.  Only last night's 00z runs started to hold it back longer.
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It's possible given the closed ridge over the north pac. As said though there is so much to be sorted out I'll take my fantasy snow and move along

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SimeonNC link said:
I know this sounds like wishcasting but I don't buy the 18z just losing the energy in Montana for a long time like that, suppression at this point yes but the energy just stalling? No. I'm gonna wait and see what the GEFS and the 00z runs do, if the stalling trend repeats then I'l buy it.
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There is a piece of energy that has to come off the North Pacific ocean that eventually forces(kicks) it to move over to Montana this run.  There was not much else around to move it out if I'm remembering the chart correctly.
 
Lol...I'm actually waiting to see if the 18z turns the second wave into a snowcane, since it just wants to park it off the SE coast lol

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Maybe it missed its Mommy and is growing up and just wants to go back home lmao.

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Awww...it did miss its Mommy lol. Put the bottle down Goofy.

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The 2nd wave slows down so much on this GFS run that it actually starts to gain latitude in the Rockies/intermountain west, starts to take on more characteristics of an Alberta Clipper than a canonical southern slider...
 
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