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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

They're almost all too warm
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bouncycorn link said:
All of the members that show snow changeover to rain.
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no they don't . depends on the area.e10 stays all frozen and e20 at first glance . but yes alot do

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Most of north Georgia is rain on both. Very odd. Usually it's change over from rain to snow but this is snow to rain.


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bouncycorn link said:
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Most of north Georgia is rain on both. Very odd. Usually it's change over from rain to snow but this is snow to rain.


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Yeah I'm not saying there aren't members that don't do that . I was just saying it depends on the location

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I mean where we are on Sunday night leaves me concerned . for days and days the models were showing a very nice transient NAO block. over the last 4 days it keeps trending weaker and weaker and further to the NE.  The NW trend could be very real with this system especially if it's able to strengthen modestly.  we are worrying about our shortwave which we should . But we can't just ignore the fact that there is room for this to go NW

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Yea the NW trend is by far the thing I am most scared about. I would give it a good chance of occurring. Hope the Euro is suppresed
 
I bet the 0z Euro will agree on 0z CMC. I have no idea what the GFS is doing...but boy the GFS has seen better days of more consistency.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
I bet the 0z Euro will agree on 0z CMC. I have no idea what the GFS is doing...but boy the GFS has seen better days of more consistency.

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after looking over each gefs member it's close to a 50/50 split. there was greater support for a more northern solution than I though originally when I just glanced. so the 00z gfs solution is a very real possibility

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Storm5 link said:
Yeah the 18z para was a hit for most

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More in line with the 00z CMC which is not bad considering the CMC was the middle road between the GFS and UK. If only we could converge on this scenario since it would be the best or at least better outcome for most.
 
Storm5 link said:
I mean where we are on Sunday night leaves me concerned . for days and days the models were showing a very nice transient NAO block. over the last 4 days it keeps trending weaker and weaker and further to the NE.  The NW trend could be very real with this system especially if it's able to strengthen modestly.  we are worrying about our shortwave which we should . But we can't just ignore the fact that there is room for this to go NW

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Why is it such a common bias for the models to have a height shift northward as we get closer to the date?
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6736#msg6736 date=1483335505]
I bet the 0z Euro will agree on 0z CMC. I have no idea what the GFS is doing...but boy the GFS has seen better days of more consistency.

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Click to expand...
after looking over each gefs member it's close to a 50/50 split. there was greater support for a more northern solution than I though originally when I just glanced. so the 00z gfs solution is a very real possibility

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[/quote]
Yea but this was really the first crazy run in quite a few runs from the GFS. The CMC and the EURO has been more consistent than the gfs. IMO the 00z GFS is a outlier. We will see

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alfoman link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6734#msg6734 date=1483335309]
I mean where we are on Sunday night leaves me concerned . for days and days the models were showing a very nice transient NAO block. over the last 4 days it keeps trending weaker and weaker and further to the NE.  The NW trend could be very real with this system especially if it's able to strengthen modestly.  we are worrying about our shortwave which we should . But we can't just ignore the fact that there is room for this to go NW

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Click to expand...

Why is it such a common bias for the models to have a height shift northward as we get closer to the date?
[/quote]
I have no clue . But it's a real thing no doubt . Blocking always gets over emphasized only to relax a little as we roll forward with patterns. We joke every year " fear the NW trend" . But it's because we have been down that road over and over and over. the gfs for one has a cold northern stream bias. It loves to show big cold presses in the medium range only to let up in the short range. The euro in the past had a warm temp bias , but even the upgrade seems to have a cold bias now. So after rambling on and not answering your question lol I have no clue ....

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Bsudweather link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6737#msg6737 date=1483335624]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6736#msg6736 date=1483335505]
I bet the 0z Euro will agree on 0z CMC. I have no idea what the GFS is doing...but boy the GFS has seen better days of more consistency.

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Click to expand...
after looking over each gefs member it's close to a 50/50 split. there was greater support for a more northern solution than I though originally when I just glanced. so the 00z gfs solution is a very real possibility

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[/quote]
Yea but this was really the first crazy run in quite a few runs from the GFS. The CMC and the EURO has been more consistent than the gfs. IMO the 00z GFS is a outlier. We will see

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[/quote]
I don't disagree with your statement. I was just pointing out that there was more support for an op like solution vs what I originally thought when I glanced over the ensembles

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don't fail us now euro....

so far so good . It's a good bit faster with out energy vs the gfs so that's a good start

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=alfoman link=topic=80.msg6739#msg6739 date=1483335819]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6734#msg6734 date=1483335309]
I mean where we are on Sunday night leaves me concerned . for days and days the models were showing a very nice transient NAO block. over the last 4 days it keeps trending weaker and weaker and further to the NE.  The NW trend could be very real with this system especially if it's able to strengthen modestly.  we are worrying about our shortwave which we should . But we can't just ignore the fact that there is room for this to go NW

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Click to expand...

Why is it such a common bias for the models to have a height shift northward as we get closer to the date?
[/quote]
I have no clue . But it's a real thing no doubt . Blocking always gets over emphasized only to relax a little as we roll forward with patterns. We joke every year " fear the NW trend" . But it's because we have been down that road over and over and over. the gfs for one has a cold northern stream bias. It loves to show big cold presses in the medium range only to let up in the short range. The euro in the past had a warm temp bias , but even the upgrade seems to have a cold bias now. So after rambling on and not answering your question lol I have no clue ....

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[/quote]

Thats what scares me about this situation honestly. When you tend to have models over emphasizing blocking and the strength of highs in the 3-5 day range, what is stopping the solution shown on the 0Z GFS from happening? We don't get the double barrel high we need to keep the low on a more southern miler A track and you end up getting a much more amplified miller B type scenario. Is there anything encouraging bias-wise that could prog the GFS as too relaxed?

I've been model watching since 2010/second year met student, but I honestly do not recall seeing this much diversity within a 48 hour model period.
 
Like Chris said earlier, the Euro is known to hold energy back out that way, and GFS is known to be too fast.  Will be interesting to see if Euro continues to be fast vs GFS.
 
Euro will agree with CMC by the looks of it so far

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If the euro comes in with a big hit, you watch and see if the 06z gfs doesn't do the same. Cause I just think something wasn't right with that 00z gfs, it was just to far off from what has been being shown.

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Pretty okay looking run so far, energy trying to bundle up a bit better vs 12z and it's on the way towards us by 12z Thursday.
 
Oh yeah, thank you Euro...much more realistic than 18z GFS. The low is dropping down east of the four corners at 96. I'm looking at the upper air, 500mb.

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It's trying. Looks warm south of 20 tho. Probably not going to.make it. But close
 
Deltadog03 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6758#msg6758 date=1483338075]
s*** it's better than the 12z run no doubt
Agreed. Nice step.

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[/quote]

Agreed. Not quite there but better
 
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