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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

CummingWx link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6461#msg6461 date=1483317210]
[quote author=NForsythWX link=topic=80.msg6453#msg6453 date=1483315969]


So in all seriousness how likely is a solution like this to actually happen?
It's possible, the last good winter event was in 2014. So, it's been a while since we had a major event.

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[/quote]

Not sure what your criteria is for a good winter event is but the 2/16/15 icestorm that affected NC/NE GA was our biggest icestorm since 12/05.
[/quote]
CummingWx link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6461#msg6461 date=1483317210]
[quote author=NForsythWX link=topic=80.msg6453#msg6453 date=1483315969]


So in all seriousness how likely is a solution like this to actually happen?
It's possible, the last good winter event was in 2014. So, it's been a while since we had a major event.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk


[/quote]

Not sure what your criteria is for a good winter event is but the 2/16/15 icestorm that affected NC/NE GA was our biggest icestorm since 12/05.
[/quote]

Here in southern Gwinnett we got nothing from the 2014 or 2015 storms. We did receive a little dusting of snow last winter. Otherwise the 2 winters before we got nothing.
 
ShowMeYourTDs link said:
[quote author=1925USA link=topic=80.msg6492#msg6492 date=1483321430]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6487#msg6487 date=1483320717]
I recall Corey Tucker at TW doing his snow dance and getting a quick heavy snow squall the winter of 2015-6. Does anyone else recall this?
Yes, I do. ? God bless him... he begged & begged for snow so much he got me tickled. Then he got some & almost fell out. I hope he finds this forum. Also the guy that decided to drive up to Tennessee & was snowed-in  in his hotel room but posted great pictures.  I enjoyed their posts. ?
[/quote]

Oh hell... Corey and his worms.
[/quote]I've laughed so hard I hurt a few times from his stories.
 
RollTide18 link said:
[quote author=1925USA link=topic=80.msg6492#msg6492 date=1483321430]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6487#msg6487 date=1483320717]
I recall Corey Tucker at TW doing his snow dance and getting a quick heavy snow squall the winter of 2015-6. Does anyone else recall this?
Yes, I do. ? God bless him... he begged & begged for snow so much he got me tickled. Then he got some & almost fell out. I hope he finds this forum. Also the guy that decided to drive up to Tennessee & was snowed-in  in his hotel room but posted great pictures.  I enjoyed their posts. ?
[/quote]

I remembered that guy also posted his hotel and room number and every was like "whoa whoa whoa!" ?
[/quote]
Yep, I remember that. I believe it was room 126. I could almost feel his panic when we told him about the dangers of posting information like that on the internet.... Too funny.
 
Yeah these last couple of years have been booorrriiinnngggggg.... No severe... No winter wx. Maybe we'll get some juice soon! It sucks because i've learned soooo much since the last big event so the next one will be kinda new with the new knowledge I have gained.
 
metwannabe link said:
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg6501#msg6501 date=1483322188]
The 18z GFS didn't shoot out the energy until after 100hr.
  I wouldn't bet my paycheck on eitherr one at this timeframe.

@84 on the GFS it is still intact and starting to move east on the NAM @84 it is completely absorbed into the ull just as the 12z GFS had it...  just another observation or note
[/quote]
 
Not betting my paycheck on either just discussing the pattern as handled by different models.... 
 
Winter Storm link said:
Boy, it is frustrating to see that Jefferson County Alabama is once again on the borderline of nothing but a cold rain. Maybe this storm will trend colder for my area.
you can go with me to my in laws in Huntsville . they have a farm . plenty of room

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Cad Wedge NC link said:
[quote author=RollTide18 link=topic=80.msg6504#msg6504 date=1483322885]
[quote author=1925USA link=topic=80.msg6492#msg6492 date=1483321430]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6487#msg6487 date=1483320717]
I recall Corey Tucker at TW doing his snow dance and getting a quick heavy snow squall the winter of 2015-6. Does anyone else recall this?
Yes, I do. ? God bless him... he begged & begged for snow so much he got me tickled. Then he got some & almost fell out. I hope he finds this forum. Also the guy that decided to drive up to Tennessee & was snowed-in  in his hotel room but posted great pictures.  I enjoyed their posts. ?
[/quote]

I remembered that guy also posted his hotel and room number and every was like "whoa whoa whoa!" ?
[/quote]
Yep, I remember that. I believe it was room 126. I could almost feel his panic when we told him about the dangers of posting information like that on the internet.... Too funny.
[/quote]Omg! I forgot about that.... lol
 
bhs1975 link said:
[quote author=tarheels2 link=topic=80.msg6515#msg6515 date=1483323640]
Is this good or bad?
Bad. The NAM isn't showing what we want. Toss it.


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[/quote]
I think it is trending away though. Past six runs show an overall shift eastward each run.
2351f067-4813-4ce3-9cfb-a6ca3202e123
 
bhs1975 link said:
[quote author=tarheels2 link=topic=80.msg6515#msg6515 date=1483323640]
Is this good or bad?
Bad. The NAM isn't showing what we want. Toss it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Most times we can just toss the NAM especially @84 Lol....  as always just throwing it out there since it's the only thing to discuss until the 0z suites get rolling haha
 
Guys stop using the LR nam lmao. Ask anybody in New England or where they receive a lot of snow and they'll tell you that the NAM is the worst winter model.
 
1925USA link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6487#msg6487 date=1483320717]
I recall Corey Tucker at TW doing his snow dance and getting a quick heavy snow squall the winter of 2015-6. Does anyone else recall this?
Yes, I do. ? God bless him... he begged & begged for snow so much he got me tickled. Then he got some & almost fell out. I hope he finds this forum. Also the guy that decided to drive up to Tennessee & was snowed-in  in his hotel room but posted great pictures.  I enjoyed their posts. ?
[/quote]

I remember that guy. He stayed about 30 minutes north of where I live because I actually told him a good safe location to stay at since I know the area.
 
bouncycorn link said:
Guys stop using the LR nam lmao. Ask anybody in New England or where they receive a lot of snow and they'll tell you that the NAM is the worst winter model.
ask anyone anywhere . I get feet of NAM snow every year

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bouncycorn link said:
Guys stop using the LR nam lmao. Ask anybody in New England or where they receive a lot of snow and they'll tell you that the NAM is the worst winter model.
There are times it has been the only one right, such as March last year. The 4km NAM was the only model showing snow for me, and nothing else did, ans sure enough, we had a brief hit of snow that day. It showed it for several days as well. Probably just a blind squirrel getting one nut.
 
FWIW, each NAM run in mid range has shifted more and more east with the pacific energy.. Good news. But again, NAM is horrible.
 
I wouldn't worry about the NAM at this stage. I would start using the NAM when we get into that 2-4 day window. I like to use the NAM 12km for short range.

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ForsythSnow link said:
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg6526#msg6526 date=1483324129]
Guys stop using the LR nam lmao. Ask anybody in New England or where they receive a lot of snow and they'll tell you that the NAM is the worst winter model.
There are times it has been the only one right, such as March last year. The 4km NAM was the only model showing snow for me, and nothing else did, ans sure enough, we had a brief hit of snow that day. It showed it for several days as well. Probably just a blind squirrel getting one nut.
[/quote]

Mesoscale models are good with mesoscale snow. Synoptic models are good with synoptic snow.
 
Seriously that's why I said FWIW when I mentioned the NAM.... truth is if we only discussed model output based off of verification we'd only discuss the Euro, maybe the GFS, UKMET within 120 hours.  What a dull place this would be.  Heck the NAM can suck within 24 hours been burned many times.  Good grief
 
bouncycorn link said:
Yeah these last couple of years have been booorrriiinnngggggg.... No severe... No winter wx. Maybe we'll get some juice soon! It sucks because i've learned soooo much since the last big event so the next one will be kinda new with the new knowledge I have gained.

I personally hope you guys down south score a few events this season. As much as I love snow I don't mind missing out on this one if my southern weather friends can score. The last two winters I've completely crushed any snow droughts from years past with about 25 inches of snow. So I'm  much more patient and willing to share the snow this season. :)
 
These storms are bound to trend in the direction of us central Alabama folks. If not then we may be going to storm5s farm haha.
 
Parker link said:
These storms are bound to trend in the direction of us central Alabama folks. If not then we may be going to storm5s farm haha.
Haha come on. It not my farm it's the in laws. it's massive and has an indoor swimming pool. We can have a snow chase if we have to

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olhausen link said:
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg6511#msg6511 date=1483323363]
Yeah these last couple of years have been booorrriiinnngggggg.... No severe... No winter wx. Maybe we'll get some juice soon! It sucks because i've learned soooo much since the last big event so the next one will be kinda new with the new knowledge I have gained.

I personally hope you guys down south score a few events this season. As much as I love snow I don't mind missing out on this one if my southern weather friends can score. The last two winters I've completely crushed any snow droughts from years past with about 25 inches of snow. So I'm  much more patient and willing to share the snow this season. :)
[/quote]Good vibes bro!
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Parker link=topic=80.msg6537#msg6537 date=1483325388]
These storms are bound to trend in the direction of us central Alabama folks. If not then we may be going to storm5s farm haha.
Haha come on. It not my farm it's the in laws. it's massive and has an indoor swimming pool. We can have a snow chase if we have to

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk


[/quote]NOTE TO SELF: Must becomes friends with Storm's inlaws ASAP
 
olhausen link said:
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg6511#msg6511 date=1483323363]
Yeah these last couple of years have been booorrriiinnngggggg.... No severe... No winter wx. Maybe we'll get some juice soon! It sucks because i've learned soooo much since the last big event so the next one will be kinda new with the new knowledge I have gained.

I personally hope you guys down south score a few events this season. As much as I love snow I don't mind missing out on this one if my southern weather friends can score. The last two winters I've completely crushed any snow droughts from years past with about 25 inches of snow. So I'm  much more patient and willing to share the snow this season. :)
[/quote]Well I think a lot of people would disagree with you, many places in Tennessee that haven't seen near 25 inches. I want to score a system as soon as possible. That said I hope everyone else can get theirs too. The central parts of the south will score a system at some point this year, they have a shot on this one also. Maybe a lot of us will see at least some snow.
 
Glenn burns just posted that the latest GFS model shows snow only in the North Georgia mountains. WTF? LOL he's using thickness 540 only. When is he going to realize that 1000-500mb thickness is not a good indicator of p-type?
 
Glenn Burns when asked about the GFS run showing ice: "Don't see any ice but certainly mountain snow [on 18z]"., What is he smoking?
 
bouncycorn link said:
Glenn Burns when asked about the GFS run showing ice: "Don't see any ice but certainly mountain snow [on 18z]"., What is he smoking?
All of you Atlanta folks can come up here to Dahlonega and watch the snow with me :)
 
vegaseagle link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6538#msg6538 date=1483326159]
[quote author=Parker link=topic=80.msg6537#msg6537 date=1483325388]
These storms are bound to trend in the direction of us central Alabama folks. If not then we may be going to storm5s farm haha.
Haha come on. It not my farm it's the in laws. it's massive and has an indoor swimming pool. We can have a snow chase if we have to

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk


[/quote]NOTE TO SELF: Must becomes friends with Storm's inlaws ASAP
[/quote]he knows how to marry!
 
bouncycorn link said:
Glenn Burns when asked about the GFS run showing ice: "Don't see any ice but certainly mountain snow [on 18z]"., What is he smoking?
WOW! He sounds soooo wise. Y'all are lucky to have him as your weather guy. LOL!


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Although there's a considerable amount of uncertainty wrt wintry wx in the southeastern US this upcoming week, it's pretty comforting to have not only multiple threats, but models with vastly different timing (on the order of 1-2 days or more) still resulting some snow/ice in the Carolinas...
Our first wave in the northern stream is currently deeply entrenched over the data sparse arctic ocean and far northeastern Siberia and won't arrive into the North American upper air network for another 36 hours, and we probably won't see this new data ingested into the models until Tuesday night, so there's still a lot that can (& probably will) change between now and then. The southern stream disturbance that will provide most of the attendant moisture for this first event is also still over the data sparse tropical north Pacific Ocean east of Hawaii...


gfs_z500_vort_namer_2-1024x638.png
 
bouncycorn link said:
Glenn Burns when asked about the GFS run showing ice: "Don't see any ice but certainly mountain snow [on 18z]"., What is he smoking?
He has always been the most frustrating meteorologist our area has to offer. I don't think he will ever learn. He calls everywhere in North Georgia "The Mountains".
 
ForsythSnow link said:
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg6545#msg6545 date=1483326817]
Glenn Burns when asked about the GFS run showing ice: "Don't see any ice but certainly mountain snow [on 18z]"., What is he smoking?
He has always been the most frustrating meteorologist our area has to offer. I don't think he will ever learn. He calls everywhere in North Georgia "The Mountains".
[/quote] He can be frustrating at times but he's a legend in Atlanta. Most people love him. And honestly I think he's just as good as James Spann. Spann is the most overrated meteorologist ever.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
I don't think Atlanta has had anything wintry other than maybe a few flurries or sleet pellets in almost 3 years.

Not true, 0.3 inches of snow was recorded in January 2016. (Jan 22nd-23rd to be more specific, I remember that because it occurred from wraparound snow.)
https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KATL/2016/1/23/DailyHistory.html?req_city=The+Hartsfield+Atlanta+International&req_state=GA&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=30320&reqdb.magic=4&reqdb.wmo=99999

I recorded this with my camera that Saturday morning from my backyard.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CocZiDrrWs
 
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