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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

weatherfide link said:
[quote author=RollTide18 link=topic=80.msg4858#msg4858 date=1483115173]
Good jinx
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Atlanta was never really in the game on this one. Besides, we desperately need the rain!
[/quote]
True. Let's be real. Accumulating snows are maybe 4 or 5 a decade.


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RollTide18 link said:
Well?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png
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yep I'm with you

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Completely different look at H5. Much more energy in the Dakotas.  Not sure if that's new or what was rushing out first and suppressing the east coast.

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I'm trying to figure out why everyone is freaking out. there have been a few ensemble members showing that type of solution. Of the run had shown a foot of snow for everyone it would be just as wrong

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Again, we really don't have much of a snowpack in the northern tier to suppress this... We can certainly get an event here, but we usually need to see the snow cover down to about the I-70 to get a good southern slider and positively feedback to get enough cold air from within the vicinity... Having it north of I-80 & even I-90 is a big problem because that allows the oncoming arctic airmass to moderate more quickly, the heights to recovery/rise faster (hence SER is stronger, storm track lifts north, etc).
 
I always get burned when I rely on "back-end" rain to snow transition without something to generate the precipitation left behind.  Guess you could call it cold chasing moisture. :(
 
Storm5 link said:
I'm trying to figure out why everyone is freaking out. there have been a few ensemble members showing that type of solution. Of the run had shown a foot of snow for everyone it would be just as wrong

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Freaking out bc those stupid members are gonna be right
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg4890#msg4890 date=1483116218]
I'm trying to figure out why everyone is freaking out. there have been a few ensemble members showing that type of solution. Of the run had shown a foot of snow for everyone it would be just as wrong

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Freaking out bc those stupid members are gonna be right
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its a damn Op run. do you honestly think the gfs was gonna spit out wintry solutions every run for the next 7-8 days. no chance in hell .yet if the euro comes in with a wintry solution everyone will act like it's correct and the gfs was out to lunch. it works both ways

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Still a long way to go. Have to see if this is a trend or just a bad run. Like someone else said, the models have also lost storms just to bring them back 3 days beforehand, too. Just wait and see.
 
I certainly wouldn't throw in the towel over one GFS op run but wait for the gefs and Euro just to see plus I hear the UKMET might look much better and it has done very well at times with the ns energy....  let's see

just goes to show you even with some blocking if it phases to quick it's problematic
 
I was just about to say the UKMET is supposedly coming in colder.
 
metwannabe link said:
I certainly wouldn't throw in the towel over one GFS op run but wait for the gefs and Euro just to see plus I hear the UKMET might look much better and it has done very well at times with the ns energy....  let's see

just goes to show you even with some blocking if it phases to quick it's problematic
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To add to this:

ukmet.png
 
Shawn link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg4896#msg4896 date=1483116520]
I certainly wouldn't throw in the towel over one GFS op run but wait for the gefs and Euro just to see plus I hear the UKMET might look much better and it has done very well at times with the ns energy....  let's see

just goes to show you even with some blocking if it phases to quick it's problematic
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To add to this:

ukmet.png

[/quote]

Thanks for posting that, it's right on time.... 
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Still a long way to go. Have to see if this is a trend or just a bad run. Like someone else said, the models have also lost storms just to bring them back 3 days beforehand, too. Just wait and see.
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Yep, I mean the 12z runs yesterday were bad, then 18z & 0z runs were okay, now the 6z & 12z today have been meh. This isn't necessarily a trend, bad runs should be expected, it's not gonna be a week's worth of models showing 6 inches of snow, just not possible.
 
SD link said:
Completely different look at H5. Much more energy in the Dakotas.  Not sure if that's new or what was rushing out first and suppressing the east coast.

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that energy cause big problems with the wave interaction. the gfs tried to phase the northern and southern energy which yank our little system more to the NW

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RollTide18 link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg4895#msg4895 date=1483116514]
Still a long way to go. Have to see if this is a trend or just a bad run. Like someone else said, the models have also lost storms just to bring them back 3 days beforehand, too. Just wait and see.
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Yep, I mean the 12z runs yesterday were bad, then 18z & 0z runs were okay, now the 6z & 12z today have been meh. This isn't necessarily a trend, bad runs should be expected, it's not gonna be a week's worth of models showing 6 inches of snow, just not possible.
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From a line around Atlanta into Central SC and up through NC, the runs have never been so great for many of us.  I think what's happening are people further to your East have been holding on and seeing the pesky ridging and blocking moving out quicker and that's where the majority of complaints are originating from.  We don't count Brick because well, he's Brick.  Until he looks out the window and sees rain instead of snow, he'll hold on.
 
We were always flirting with disaster with the look..the waffling on the models at what is still days 6/7 is expected. If this were October no one would notice. There is so much going on I don't see a reason to give up.

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I'm glad a new thread is started for this time period. I'd figured there would be a consolidated low showing up sooner or later,  due to low amplitude on previous model runs.

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12z gefs wants no part of the gfs op ridge flex

12z gfs op
b47dafbf3c12b3d0e94ea1abc0cf48c4.jpg


12z gefs
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Yeah still long ways off,  every model run wil changel with placement of the LP. Heck even if it takes a little NW trend we still would get something on the backside, thats better then what we have now, nothing.
 
Through 216, im not sure many will like the GEFS members.

Edit: you guys beat me to it.
 
Is that the first time the gefs has shown an ugly run on this system?
 
12z gefs shows 100 percent why we DON'T want a wrapped up consolidated low.

We need to get back to the overrunning look

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Storm5 link said:
12z gefs is UGLY

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Yep not the best trend but while totals are way down I still count 13 that show some sn for NC and TN still looking ok but still compared it's ugly.

Btw I've had some snow showers today kind of unexpected
 
metwannabe link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg4908#msg4908 date=1483118380]
12z gefs is UGLY

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Yep not the best trend but while totals are way down I still count 13 that show some sn for NC and TN still looking ok but still compared it's ugly.

Btw I've had some snow showers today kind of unexpected
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yes I agree . but there was a clear north shift on the gefs with the members which is a concern . still 7-8 days out

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Love to see everyone reaction if the 18z puts out good again
 
Definitely a significant shift northward on the GEFS, and Im not surprised at all. I'd like to see more snow to our north to get a big overrunning event... The I-64 corridor and OH valley is sitting in the sweet spot atm.
 
Storm5 link said:
12z gefs shows 100 percent why we DON'T want a wrapped up consolidated low.

We need to get back to the overrunning look

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True that storm, some the CFSV2 members look good

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg4914#msg4914 date=1483118919]
12z gefs shows 100 percent why we DON'T want a wrapped up consolidated low.

We need to get back to the overrunning look

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True that storm, some the CFSV2 members look good

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[/quote]
I wouldn't hold to close to the CFSV2...


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metwannabe link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg4908#msg4908 date=1483118380]
12z gefs is UGLY

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Click to expand...

Yep not the best trend but while totals are way down I still count 13 that show some sn for NC and TN still looking ok but still compared it's ugly.

Btw I've had some snow showers today kind of unexpected[/quote]

I was about to say the other day we might get some flurries with all the cold air aloft.
 
It just gets me how when one model run is bad then the rest will follow, lol. Hopefully we start showing seeing some better runs. I would like to see this storm to slow down allowing the cold air to settle. I would also like to see an increase in moisture little more.
 
The ukmet and canadian ens still look good for NC. Also euro ens looked pretty good last night as well. Just gonna have to hang tight through the weekend and hope that ns energy pinwheels on around the PV and not phase out in the sw like the gfs showed. Still say for my area it's 50/50 like it's always been. We should have a pretry good idea by Sunday night into Monday how things are gonna play out
 
A good reason to not start a thread, for a 7 day+ winter event, especially, when is been trending worse, when models have been trending worse!
 
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