Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

The NWS offices would most likely put out winter storm watches from ATL through SC and up to eastern NC. A winter storm watch is usually issued 12-48hrs before the event.

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Based on the GFS? Everything else I'm seeing has 1-2 inches for our area. I don't see ATL or SC having winter storm watches.

There may not be a winter storm watch directly for ATL. I would think there would be a watch for the NE and eastern suburbs of ATL to upstate SC and into eastern NC. NE and eastern suburbs of ATL should see 3"+ of snow...increasing as you go further from there.

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[Shawn]

The GFS feels like it's on to something to me on the general solution but I think the low either corrects itself to the north 50-100 miles or the precip shield is more expansive by 50-100 miles.

 

[Shawn]

The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol

Sorry for the newbie question, but how are temps on that map for GA and SC?

It's pretty cold, this is during heaviest precip in/around Atlanta...

 

[Shawn]

Yeah so anyway this guy right here is riding the more expansive precip shields on the gefs . the gfs op is clearly too far south

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Probably. But you know that the precip spread on an ensemble mean will tighten up as the individual members converge and we get closer to go time.

He isn't referring to the mean....he is talking about the individual members.

 

[Shawn]

GFS makes me happy, gefs even happier

 

[Shawn]

Also, can I just throw this out there please?  Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal??  I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal.  I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south.  I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

This! 

Will add its the I want it all and big...just human nature anything less is a loss for those in the areas that poo poo about 1-2" event are probably the same ones who blew off snowmageden as oh just 1 or 2" that's nothing. Yes we learned temps in the 20's changes things dramatically but proves you do not have to 6-12" to cause major issues in the Deep South.

 

[Shawn]

all 12z gefs members are hits here except one.

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Buying a sled today?

 

[Shawn]

The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol

Sorry for the newbie question, but how are temps on that map for GA and SC?

It's pretty cold, this is during heaviest precip in/around Atlanta...

Thanks Webber - really appreciate all the enlightenment you provide around here!

 

[Shawn]

The NWS offices would most likely put out winter storm watches from ATL through SC and up to eastern NC. A winter storm watch is usually issued 12-48hrs before the event.

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Based on the GFS? Everything else I'm seeing has 1-2 inches for our area. I don't see ATL or SC having winter storm watches.

There may not be a winter storm watch directly for ATL. I would think there would be a watch for the NW and western suburbs of ATL to upstate SC and into eastern NC. NW and western suburbs of ATL should see 3"+ of snow...increasing as you go further from there.

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I could see them issuing a watch for much of North GA out of an abundance of caution and then either upgrading to a warning if conditions warrant or a advisory. Seems most appropriate at the moment with the amount of unknowns.


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[Shawn]

This doesn't appear to be anything more than an advisory level event for the immediate Atlanta area. Depending on what you define as northern or western suburbs though could be a low end warning criteria.

 

[Shawn]

all 12z gefs members are hits here except one.

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Buying a sled today?

you know me better than that . I've got two in the attic



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[Shawn]

GEFS mean

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[Shawn]

GEFS mean



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epic for yall

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[Shawn]

Ukmet & NAM had colder solutions today need the Euro to continue the trend today to lineup more with GFS temps and then just need a little low love

 

[Shawn]

GEFS mean

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That looks like a lot more happy people!

 

[Shawn]

GEFS look good!

 

[Shawn]

GEFS mean



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epic for yall

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Lol I wasn't requesting (but thanks!) I was trying to post it and Tapatalk was being funky.... haha

 

[Shawn]

GEFS mean

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I'll take this and run with it

 

[Shawn]

As we go through the next 24 hours, I think it will be important to watch the actual s/w as it slides down the west coast...the more rounded and tilted it looks, the better for Alabama, prob GA too.

 

[Shawn]

I just want the whole board to get snow.