Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol

That's not a weenie run, that has potential IMO. Once the low gets off the southeast coast, we'll see a lot more moisture and good convective snow bands.

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[Shawn]

I trust the Germans. They are smart people

 

[Shawn]

The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol

hell it's a wennie run for many ( relative to the sh**** trends some of us have been dealing with "

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[Shawn]

The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol

This will replace the ARPGE for me

The German's take over the French? You don't say.

 

[Shawn]

Just about punt time.

lol anything for you down that way is a win. no need to punt yet

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Very true, but at this point even that is hanging by a thread. One more run of the GFS with slightly warmer mid level temps and I'm done, besides possibly a little sleet or so.

 

[Shawn]

NAVGEM FTW!!!!!

 

[Shawn]

GFS FTW!!!!

 

[Shawn]

Lol WTVC channel 9 calling for a dusting KCHA & SE TN ?

 

[Shawn]

I think most in the I20 corridor will get some snow. It may be 1/2 inch in western areas but we will see some snow which is better than what the models where showing two weeks ago with the prolonged torch. We should all be happy.

 

[Shawn]

The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol

Das is gut!

Wunderbar!

 

[Shawn]

I wonder if some offices will start issuing watches this afternoon or in the morning?

I'm thinking the only office that has the greatest overall model consistency for winter storm criteria snow is eastern NC which is still too early for a watch, since they're the farthest east.

FFC is not gonna budge unless the Euro does.


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[Shawn]

The 6z NAVGEM gets going pretty late and looks like it does almost purely from the GOM disturbance and not from the western disturbance. I think it might be good for some areas.

 

[Shawn]

ukmet looks weaker vs previous runs and a blend of the cmc and euro

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[Shawn]

So, it looks like the Euro, UK, and Canadian are all pretty consistent with their amounts for around my area, with the GFS showing less.

 

[Shawn]

The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol

Sorry for the newbie question, but how are temps on that map for GA and SC?

 

[Shawn]

From what I can tell, the german model was created in collaboration with ECMWF granted I'm not sure wrt its accuracy. The meteograms at RDU showed it dropping ~ 7-9" of snow, not bad.

 

[Shawn]

FFC will wait for the 12z Euro to see if they want to issue a Winter Storm Watch. IMO

 

[Shawn]

I wonder if some offices will start issuing watches this afternoon or in the morning?

I'm thinking the only office that has the greatest overall model consistency for winter storm criteria snow is eastern NC which is still too early for a watch, since they're the farthest east.

FFC is not gonna budge unless the Euro does.


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The good thing about all the models is most AT LEAST give us some kind of precip, so I expect to at least see some kind of frozen or freezing precip in the friday-saturday time frame, which in the south is a win in itself.

 

[Shawn]

FFC IMO will likely issue a Winter Weather Advisory sometime late tomorrow if model trends continue. I doubt they issue a WSW at this point.

 

[Shawn]

FFC will wait for the 12z Euro to see if they want to issue a Winter Storm Watch. IMO

I believe they will wait until at least tomorrow morning before pulling the trigger, but if they do based off of current data, it would only be for the mountains of N GA.