Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Storm5]

I think all of us in Tennessee land can say goodbye to this winter threat. Maybe a few flurries at best

totally disagree .many eps and gefs members look great for your area. while it might not look good right now there is plenty of time. the solutions we saw today will not be the final solutions. hang in there

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[accu35]

I think all of us in Tennessee land can say goodbye to this winter threat. Maybe a few flurries at best

I wouldn't give up yet, if it trends north a bit then board wide game om

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

It's pretty remarkable how consistent the GFS has been over the past couple of days. The temps seem like they are ok not long after the precip starts but barely. It'd be above freezing but above freezing can work.

I don't think this will be the final solution. It's a solution that's possible but it doesn't happen often.

 

[Parker]

This may be the first time I love my spot. Euro is north and GFS is south. Meet in the middle and boom. Let's keep this going

 

[Wurbus]

I think all of us in Tennessee land can say goodbye to this winter threat. Maybe a few flurries at best

I'm not giving up until the wave comes onshore and we get reliable data for the models to ingest. It's not trending well for us, but there could be some big shifts over the next 24 hours.

 

[deltadog03]

I def. would not give up on the NW trend...lol...I will say the EURO could easily be right...but I do think the cold press will be more impressive. The moist 700mb, as others have pointed out, should really allow this to blossom further north.

 

[WxJoe]

Just found the site and wanted to pop in and say well done to the Admin! Great to see so many familiar folks here.

LET IT SNOW!

 

[GaWx]

Is the low too far south?  More than likely that's the case, per climatologically.  But, there have a been a handful of times where the low was well into central Florida, per southern snowstorms.

 Here are some examples of central FL crossovers: 1/2002 (gave ATL ~4.5"), 1/1992 (gave south ATL metro 5"+ of SN), 2/1973 (the huge snowstorm that missed ATL), 2/1914 (much of central GA's 2nd biggest SN on record; even up at ATL got a good hit near 2-3").

 There have been far more lows crossing N FL/S GA during winter. However, sometimes they do actually go far south per some of the ones I mentioned above and like these recent GFS runs have shown. One would think that the GFS is too far south as per other models and the more common N FL path. However, the GFS hasn't let go of the far south path. So, until then, it should be considered a possibility.

 

[SASQUATCH]

Many years of winter weather weenie-ism in the south has taught me that it's not all that great to be in the sweet-spot right now. I would want to be NW at this point. There's no meteorological science behind my thoughts, just painful and sleepless experience.

 

[WXinCanton]

I think all of us in Tennessee land can say goodbye to this winter threat. Maybe a few flurries at 

I would not write this off by any means for TN.  You have about the same chance to jackpot as much as those to your south.

 

[BHS1975]

Rarely do storms go that far south so I'm good with where it's at on the GFS.


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[Flo]

Does the GFS have a habit of keeping storms south this long?

 

[NorthGaWinter]

00z runs gonna be huge... the nw trend is gonna happen.. also like the star system

 

[Webberweather53]

The GFS is in the same camp as the NAVGEM & DGEX wrt extreme suppression... I'm not saying it's certainly going to be wrong but this specific combination of model suites rarely, if ever verifies...

 

[Racker74]

I know climatology speaking where I am in Auburn odds are low however we have had some big dogs feb141973.

I was in school then and it let out at noon and roads were already a mess only snowing 2 hours. Like to not got my car home. Had close to a foot out at the CDV.


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[Storm5]

dgex is pound town from eastern alabama through atlanta before dumping over a foot in parts of NC

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[deltadog03]

EURO was not the greatest run today....def. squash a bit..What I find funny is the GFS is yes, further south, but the EURO would be sooo much better if it was colder like the GFS/CMC

 

[Heisenberg]

I think all of us in Tennessee land can say goodbye to this winter threat. Maybe a few flurries at best

Yep, MBY has not had a decent storm in 5 years now. They are either just south or just north. The area just south east of Nashville becomes the Sahara desert if the temp drops below 32. Can't tell you how many times I could drive 45 minutes north or south and be in snow.

 

[Tarheel1]

Rarely do storms go that far south so I'm good with where it's at on the GFS.


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Especially, with no blocking! IMO, I think a track over JAX, will be the final track

 

[SoutheastRidge]

I've been gone all day and trying to figure out whats going on. So the snow will mainly be south of I-20 and here in North GA we won't get anything ?