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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

18z vs 12z

[img=600x435]https://media.giphy.com/media/tSlIoMbVcCMp2/giphy.gif[/img]
 
I agree. We'd be really disappointed here in extreme northwest ga if that plays out.
 
GFS is south & east/suppressed vs nearly every other piece of guidance available at hand off the SE US, yea I've seen this movie way too many times before. It's comforting to have it to my south & east @ this range because I know it's usually only a matter of time...
 
18z GFS: 2m temps are borderline south and east of ATL-AHN, but they are improved from recent runs. Precipitation ends Saturday morning and all of GA is above freezing by 10am, but incoming high pressure gets us back below feeezing by 4pm and then very cold overnight.
 
Folks keep saying it should shift NW because that has happened in the past, but the GFS seems to be going further south each run.
 
the difference between the models in regards to the handling of the thermal profiles is amazing

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I know climatology speaking where I am in Auburn odds are low however we have had some big dogs feb141973.
 
The GFS hasn't been going south with each run, it's practically held steady as a southern outlier vs other guidance. I certainly wouldn't have a problem with its solution, but it's worth mentioning it also tried to pull the same crap over the pacific NW a few days ago with that ULL, where it was virtually by itself (along w/ the NAM (lol)) in keeping the ULL detached from the NS disturbance and defied other guidance even in the short range, and ended up being too progressive with the northern branch system and and we all know how that worked out :)
 
Brick Tamland said:
Folks keep saying it should shift NW because that has happened in the past, but the GFS seems to be going further south each run.
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We still have a few more days for that to possibly occur.  I can't lie, as I do like where I stand (per locale) when it comes to the GFS.
 
Aubighitter said:
I know climatology speaking where I am in Auburn odds are low however we have had some big dogs feb141973.
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early-January 2002, as well. Not when it comes to inches of snow we received in February '73, but the dynamics of the storm was quite similar.
 
RichardJacks said:
great BMX afternoon disco!
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The models have been trending closer together the past 24 to 48
hours, but some newer data is interesting. Generally speaking, the
model suite is fairly agreeable with the positive tilt trough
dropping into the Mississippi Valley and then into the Tennessee
Valley by Saturday. Only fairly minor timing and height
differences noted. Zonal flow noted ahead of this feature. The
models have a trend of flip flopping in the 4-6 day time frame
before becoming more in line. The latest ECMWF has just trended
back to closer to previous solutions that were warmer. The
GFS/GEFS have continued the trend of plenty of cold air all the
way to Montgomery. Models tend to have difficulty with the colder
airmasses and the extent of the penetration southward. The
thermodynamic parameters amongst the models do not match up but
will have to intensely watch these developments.
 
I think all of us in Tennessee land can say goodbye to this winter threat. Maybe a few flurries at best
 
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