I mean there are literally enough solutions that support the cmc, gfs , ukmet and euro . it's funnywhatalife said:
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Storm5 said:
Toss them. Toss them all lol.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Storm5 said:
This is unprecedented but Brick was accurate earlier...... Euro is kind of throwing out everything with the attitude "hey it will eventually be right"
Storm5 said:
Well that doesn't surprise me for some reason I just think the progressive northern flow is going to out race the energy like cmc and gfs show. We shall see.
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Yeah, I think the Euro will slowly come around to some of the other models thinking... we shall see though. Either way, still looks good for a sizable winter storm for someone in the Southeast
Oh and alot of misses as well
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packfan98
Moderator
There seems like there must be some better agreement with the EPS or the mean wouldn't have jumped so high. 2-2.5 inches on the mean of 51 members seems pretty good.
Storm5 said:
Heck that tells me that its seeing a GFS like solution...Sounds like FFC is leaning toward a GFS solution.
Psalm 148:8
Member
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So here is how you do it...chance of snow, then a chance of rain. High 38. ????hahahahaha
eps would argue the op is off with its precip presentation .
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I also want to throw this out there...NO models did very good with this latest storm rainfall amounts...just saying...the models are ALL struggling. CMC did the best I believe..hahaaha
ATLwxfan
Member
Supershow said:Pick your poison
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a LOT of misses.
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campamy
Member
Normally I would go back and look, but since TW is gone, does anyone remember the Christmas 2010 storm? I seem to remember every model 'losing' the storm pretty dramatically before it came back. Any similarities (or does anyone remember how the models went?)?
what's funny is the eps is usually rock steady inside 5 days. and it's been all over the place. I've never seen the ensembles flip so much at such a short lead
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F
farleydawg79
Guest
FFC Disco:
LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Long term forecast largely overshadowed with winter weather
potential for late Friday into Saturday. As previously mentioned,
many contributing factors must align for accumulations to occur,
but models seem to be coming into better alignment with the
potential for accumulations. Winter precip looks to begin Friday
evening (well after school release time), and continue into the
overnight period. Have opted to increase pops for the 00z- 18z
period Saturday, and with model temperatures cooler than
previously forecast, this spreads snow chances farther south and
east with this forecast package. For now, given the uncertainty
with the placement of the moisture axis and the timing of the cold
air into the state, have opted to not include accumulations at
this time. Several ensemble model members are suggesting a couple
inches of snow, but others are going with no accumulations at all.
As far as the more mainstream deterministic models, the CMC has
the moisture axis farther north, across the Atlanta metro area and
northward, with the better chances across the far northern metro
counties. The GFS suggests accumulations are possible across the
Atlanta metro, but keeps the best axis south of the southernmost
metro counties. For the ECMWF, the contributing ingredients do
not appear to line up to promote snowfall accumulations.
Confidence in the forecast is increasing as the latest model runs
(and run- to- run solutions) seem to converge to a similar
solution, and expect this to continue into into late week.
After the winter system moves out of the area, temperatures remain
chilly, and any accumulations would likely stick around into late
weekend.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Long term forecast largely overshadowed with winter weather
potential for late Friday into Saturday. As previously mentioned,
many contributing factors must align for accumulations to occur,
but models seem to be coming into better alignment with the
potential for accumulations. Winter precip looks to begin Friday
evening (well after school release time), and continue into the
overnight period. Have opted to increase pops for the 00z- 18z
period Saturday, and with model temperatures cooler than
previously forecast, this spreads snow chances farther south and
east with this forecast package. For now, given the uncertainty
with the placement of the moisture axis and the timing of the cold
air into the state, have opted to not include accumulations at
this time. Several ensemble model members are suggesting a couple
inches of snow, but others are going with no accumulations at all.
As far as the more mainstream deterministic models, the CMC has
the moisture axis farther north, across the Atlanta metro area and
northward, with the better chances across the far northern metro
counties. The GFS suggests accumulations are possible across the
Atlanta metro, but keeps the best axis south of the southernmost
metro counties. For the ECMWF, the contributing ingredients do
not appear to line up to promote snowfall accumulations.
Confidence in the forecast is increasing as the latest model runs
(and run- to- run solutions) seem to converge to a similar
solution, and expect this to continue into into late week.
After the winter system moves out of the area, temperatures remain
chilly, and any accumulations would likely stick around into late
weekend.
Storm5 said:eps would argue the op is off with its precip presentation .
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That looks very gfs like with some cmc and ukie. Something just doesn't seem right with the euro op run. It could easily be right, but the eps argues it's likely not rright
Storm5 said:
You kknow me, I'm usually team euro all thethe way, but with very little eps support, I'm not sure the op is going to be correct. It may tho.