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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

MotoWeatherman said:
GaWx said:
Snowfan said:
JMA is not that reliable.
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 I'll go further and say that the JMA is not reliable at all. I put it with the CMC at best.
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Wow Larry...insulting the CMC by putting it on the same level as the JMA.  Poor Canadian...
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Lol, look at my edit. And I said comparable to the CMC at best. One thing the JMA is bad with is way overdoing qpf. It is awful!

Good to see you by the way! Moto, you need a met. tag.
 
CobraMedic said:
bhs1975 said:
Man the doc sure quieted down this forum.


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We need to do a buddy check. Make sure all our snow weenies are okay. That was a rough one.
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Do it to it, Lars!




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I mean, 5 to 6 inches that the Euro showed wouldn't be bad. I just don't want to see the totals decreasing. And just worried this is an all or nothing deal. Wouldn't take much change for it to be a monster storm, and wouldn't take much change for it to be hardly anything.
 
Well, when we're pretty much down to two choices, neither of which are going to really satisfy everyone here, there isn't a whole lot to talk about.
 
Lol, TWC looks like there going with GFS and CMC solution.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Well, when we're pretty much down to two choices, neither of which are going to really satisfy everyone here, there isn't a whole lot to talk about.
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Very true. When the most likely scenario gives about 6 members something to cheer for, its going to be dead.
 
Hoping the UKMET will be the winner when all is said and done. Don't know if there is a reason the Euro was quicker but hopefully the ensembles will show a slower system to allow more cold air.
 
FFC AFD

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Long term forecast largely overshadowed with winter weather
potential for late Friday into Saturday. As previously mentioned,
many contributing factors must align for accumulations to occur,
but models seem to be coming into better alignment with the
potential for accumulations. Winter precip looks to begin Friday
evening (well after school release time), and continue into the
overnight period. Have opted to increase pops for the 00z- 18z
period Saturday, and with model temperatures cooler than
previously forecast, this spreads snow chances farther south and
east with this forecast package. For now, given the uncertainty
with the placement of the moisture axis and the timing of the cold
air into the state, have opted to not include accumulations at
this time. Several ensemble model members are suggesting a couple
inches of snow, but others are going with no accumulations at all.
As far as the more mainstream deterministic models, the CMC has
the moisture axis farther north, across the Atlanta metro area and
northward, with the better chances across the far northern metro
counties. The GFS suggests accumulations are possible across the
Atlanta metro, but keeps the best axis south of the southernmost
metro counties. For the ECMWF, the contributing ingredients do
not appear to line up to promote snowfall accumulations.
Confidence in the forecast is increasing as the latest model runs
(and run- to- run solutions) seem to converge to a similar
solution, and expect this to continue into into late week.

After the winter system moves out of the area, temperatures remain
chilly, and any accumulations would likely stick around into late
weekend.
 
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