Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[JtSmarts]

what's funny is the eps is usually rock steady inside 5 days. and it's been all over the place. I've never seen the ensembles flip so much at such a short lead

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Reminds me of Hermine, ALL the models struggled with her and the euro certainly wasn't the king in that case, like it was with Joaquin.

 

[SD]

Normally I would go back and look, but since TW is gone, does anyone remember the Christmas 2010 storm?  I seem to remember every model 'losing' the storm pretty dramatically before it came back.  Any similarities (or does anyone remember how the models went?)?

The GFS Euro were in decent agreement at like days 6-7 held for a couple of days then they both lost the storm to the east only to trend back west in the last 24-36 hrs

 

[Brick Tamland]

the eps is all over the map. supports all 12z Op runs lol

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

LMBO!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I mean there are literally enough solutions that support the cmc, gfs , ukmet and euro . it's funny

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Like I said, it's like the Euro is throwing darts hoping something will stick.

 

[deltadog03]

I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture?

 

[Rain Cold]

Lol

 

[deltadog03]

the eps is all over the map. supports all 12z Op runs lol

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

LMBO!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I mean there are literally enough solutions that support the cmc, gfs , ukmet and euro . it's funny

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Like I said, it's like the Euro is throwing darts hoping something will stick.

I could definitely agree with that Brick

 

[SimeonNC]

I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture?

Yes, but with above normal gulf waters convective feedback shouldn't rob us entirely.

 

[whatalife]

the eps is all over the map. supports all 12z Op runs lol

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

LMBO!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I mean there are literally enough solutions that support the cmc, gfs , ukmet and euro . it's funny

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Like I said, it's like the Euro is throwing darts hoping something will stick.

I could definitely agree with that Brick

I think I have a better chance of being drunk and hitting the target then the Dr being right but we'll see...LOL!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[mydoortotheworld]

I also want to throw this out there...NO models did very good with this latest storm rainfall amounts...just saying...the models are ALL struggling.  CMC did the best I believe..hahaaha

did we overperform or underperform?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

How do temps look on the EPS? Temps are gonna screw us

 

[NorthBamaWeather]

I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture?

I mentioned this yesterday. Models are throwing a good bit of convection along the Gulf Coast

 

[Flo]

Phones charged for GFS

What time?

 

[Flo]

All the local mets in CAE seem to be on board with temps, but not sure about the precip.

 

[Nam0806]

Phones charged for GFS

What time?

For the 18z GFS run it would be...
4:30-4:45 PM EST
3:30-3:45 PM CST

 

[deltadog03]

I also want to throw this out there...NO models did very good with this latest storm rainfall amounts...just saying...the models are ALL struggling.  CMC did the best I believe..hahaaha

did we overperform or underperform?

I got like 6" of rain. Models were like 3-4" I believe ***

 

[DadOfJax]

I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture?

I mentioned this yesterday. Models are throwing a good bit of convection along the Gulf Coast

Just another issue we will have to face IF everything else goes good. While the odds are sure not in our favor, its fun as all get out to track it!

 

[SimeonNC]

At this point, I recommend not giving any future model runs much weight until the 00z

 

[GaWx]

Despite a great low track, the problem with the 12Z Euro being cold enough for a big hit in many areas is that there's no cold high coming in just before the low to provide enough low level cold air. It would be better in this case to have higher pressure to the north of it when it gets to the gulf coast (a ala 12Z GFS/JMA) as opposed to the bulk of the high being WNW of it as the 12Z Euro has.

 

[Nam0806]

At this point, I recommend not giving any future model runs much weight until the 00z

They all deserve weight - because each run is a possible outcome, and you have to consider the current guidance. Granted, not all models deserve the same amount of weight, but each needs to be considered as a possible outcome.

 

[Tarheel1]

When the 18z GFS looks like the 12z Euro ! Next!