I do like the amount of available cold air. The last two GFS runs and the CMC are things of beauty for central AL/GA.
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Flo
Member
That is why I said we will get nothing now. Whenever I see TWC call for snow, it doesn't snow. Same with Ben Tanner. If he calls for snow we are doomed.Shawn said:
Usually very conservative Rah NWS discussion.... they are just about on board
Friday Night and Saturday: The models are in better agreement and thus there is an increase in forecast confidence with respect to the overall pattern for this part of the period. However, there are still differences in timing between the GFS and ECMWF. Generally, a shortwave trough will move through the Midwest Friday night and into the Carolinas on Saturday. Meanwhile, southwest flow aloft will result in good moisture transport from the Gulf. Also, a surface low will develop over the Gulf and move NE through FL and along the Carolina coast. There is more than sufficient moisture and forcing mechanisms to result in precipitation during this period, much of which will be snow or a rain/snow mix transitioning to all snow (based on the current temperature forecast). Overnight lows will be in the 20s and highs will be in the mid to upper 30s. This period will be closely monitored over the next several days, as it provides the best chance for impactful winter weather.
Friday Night and Saturday: The models are in better agreement and thus there is an increase in forecast confidence with respect to the overall pattern for this part of the period. However, there are still differences in timing between the GFS and ECMWF. Generally, a shortwave trough will move through the Midwest Friday night and into the Carolinas on Saturday. Meanwhile, southwest flow aloft will result in good moisture transport from the Gulf. Also, a surface low will develop over the Gulf and move NE through FL and along the Carolina coast. There is more than sufficient moisture and forcing mechanisms to result in precipitation during this period, much of which will be snow or a rain/snow mix transitioning to all snow (based on the current temperature forecast). Overnight lows will be in the 20s and highs will be in the mid to upper 30s. This period will be closely monitored over the next several days, as it provides the best chance for impactful winter weather.
JtSmarts
Member
FLO said:
Ha Ben Tanner was the person to mention a "wintry mix" but Jim Gandy came on board too last night.
FLO said:
Those guys like Ben Tanner won't say anything until the NWS does. Long story short those local guys are on a tight leash about mentioning Wintry weather around these parts. The only time they do it and get away with it is when the NWS talks about it in thei forecast discussion.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like 8 of the GEFS members have a good storm here, while some have hardly anything. An all or nothing deal, which is pretty common here.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Anybody think cold will be an issue? Euro has me kinda nervous
JtSmarts
Member
I'm hoping they (CAE NWS) are right that this is mostly a snow situation rather than ice.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
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- 8,394
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I do like what GFS is showing, it trended more accumulation of snow this morning on 6z, very interested to see if it trends colder then the amounts will increase. Would love to see the moisture inrich little more but great potential winter storm.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z NAM still trending towards more interaction between our ULL off of Oregon and the northern stream disturbance over the next dew days, oth, the shortwave over the Great Lakes ~ day 4 in most guidance has trended further SE and could attempt to phase with our southern stream system as it nears the Atlantic coast, which would effectively lead to a formidable Miller A, brining the Mid-Atlantic/NE US I-95 corridor into play as well as bringing forth some mixing issues esp over eastern sections of the Carolinas and even VA. A lot of things still left to sort out, our northern stream disturbance is currently being sampled by RAOB network and this data should be ingested into the models no later than 0z tonight.
No snow for you
Member
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Shawn said:
Stop posting on both sites!!!! (JK btw)
whatalife
Moderator
Shawn said:
Here's to hoping it works out for us...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
HixsonWX
Member
Chattanooga's snow totals took a nosedive off a cliff with this morning's GFS run... We had a ISU Meteogram average of 8 inches yesterday and now it is down to half an inch. :-(
Come on Northwest trend!
Come on Northwest trend!
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL
FEATURE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER AK WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR MEANDERING CLOSED LOWS TO INHABIT THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
TO THE EAST OF THIS BLOCKING REGIME...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE IN PLAY
WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORING MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A FORMER CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD LIKELY BE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING
ABSORBED BY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS REPEATEDLY BEEN SLOWER ALLOWING FOR MORE OF
A SEPARATION WHICH LEADS TO A GREATER DEAL OF AMPLIFICATION
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MID-SOUTH REGION. AFTER
LOOKING AT THE 00Z GFS...THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TO BE FLATTER WITH
THE ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE BEING WELL SOUTH TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS WRAPPED-UP COASTAL LOW
IT WAS FORECASTING. IT DOES STILL REMAIN WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES AS THE 00Z UKMET LOOKS MORE LIKE THE FORMER GFS RUNS
WITH A 983-MB CYCLONE OFF OF CAPE COD MA BY 08/1200Z. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THIS FEATURE DATING BACK TO
PREVIOUS SHIFTS...IT IS STILL WORTH MONITORING. THE GOAL IN THE
EARLIER PACKAGE WAS TO UTILIZE A MORE ENSEMBLE BASED APPROACH WITH
ONLY 20 PERCENT OF DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 BEING COMPROMISED OF THE 18Z
GFS/12Z GFS-PARALLEL TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO
WPC Discussion
FEATURE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER AK WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR MEANDERING CLOSED LOWS TO INHABIT THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
TO THE EAST OF THIS BLOCKING REGIME...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE IN PLAY
WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORING MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A FORMER CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD LIKELY BE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING
ABSORBED BY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS REPEATEDLY BEEN SLOWER ALLOWING FOR MORE OF
A SEPARATION WHICH LEADS TO A GREATER DEAL OF AMPLIFICATION
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MID-SOUTH REGION. AFTER
LOOKING AT THE 00Z GFS...THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TO BE FLATTER WITH
THE ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE BEING WELL SOUTH TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS WRAPPED-UP COASTAL LOW
IT WAS FORECASTING. IT DOES STILL REMAIN WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES AS THE 00Z UKMET LOOKS MORE LIKE THE FORMER GFS RUNS
WITH A 983-MB CYCLONE OFF OF CAPE COD MA BY 08/1200Z. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THIS FEATURE DATING BACK TO
PREVIOUS SHIFTS...IT IS STILL WORTH MONITORING. THE GOAL IN THE
EARLIER PACKAGE WAS TO UTILIZE A MORE ENSEMBLE BASED APPROACH WITH
ONLY 20 PERCENT OF DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 BEING COMPROMISED OF THE 18Z
GFS/12Z GFS-PARALLEL TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO
WPC Discussion