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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Uhm is the long range (crap range) NAM shearing out by HR 54? :(
 
Looks like NAM is gonna send it down through Northern Cali, no fail yet on that model.

Might be sending a weaker wave. Impressive.
 
Not much from 06z NAM. I wasn't a super fan. Not as bad as 00z run but not great. Piece of deeper vort sticks in the back.. likely says "nah, im good" and sticks back away from the n. branch.
 
What is the difference in the control and mean? Maybe I should just google that...
 
Olaf said:
What is the difference in the control and mean? Maybe I should just google that...
Click to expand...


Easiest way to put it:

1) Operational comes out and you check the model.
2) Control runs which is a lower resolution run from the operational.
3) Off that lower resolution run, ensemble members are generated.
4) You get ensemble members along with the operational and control.
5) A mean is made from the ensemble members as an average.

Long story short, the main run of a model is best, second best is control and third best is ensemble agreement for the most part.

It is really important for models to have agreement with their operational counterparts.  Earlier today, the Euro run (12z) had agreement from it's own ensemble system and turned many people off.

I'm sure Google can give a better answer though. :p
 
Shawn said:
Olaf said:
What is the difference in the control and mean? Maybe I should just google that...
Click to expand...


Easiest way to put it:

1) Operational comes out and you check the model.
2) Control runs which is a lower resolution run from the operational.
3) Off that lower resolution run, ensemble members are generated.
4) You get ensemble members along with the operational and control.
5) A mean is made from the ensemble members as an average.

Long story short, the main run of a model is best, second best is control and third best is ensemble agreement for the most part.

It is really important for models to have agreement with their operational counterparts.  Earlier today, the Euro run (12z) had agreement from it's own ensemble system and turned many people off.

I'm sure Google can give a better answer though. :p
Click to expand...

Thanks a lot. That makes sense.
 
tues am discussion from Huntsville:
Friday starts the long term period off cold as the reinforcing front
that moved through overnight brings much colder air to the area with
850mb temps falling to -8C to -10C. With continued cold advection
and clouds lingering, highs will only reach to around 31-34 degrees.

Models are still in disagreement on how to handle the next system. A
weak upper wave develops over the Texas panhandle Friday afternoon
with a piece of energy ejecting eastward across the area. Early this
week the GFS was showing some light QPF with this system (dry now)
and now the 03/00z ECMWF is showing some through Friday evening.
There is still moisture above about 750mb through the day but dew
points are in the teens and the low levels are very dry. We could
see some flurries/light snow with this but would think whatever fell
would evaporate and not cause any accumulation.

Things get slightly more interesting Friday night as the upper
trough digs into LA and a surface low forms along the gulf coast.
This low tracks E-NE along the gulf through the day Saturday. This
is a good snow set up for the local area especially with the arctic
air mass and lows Friday night in the lower 20s (wind chills in the
lower teens). The ECMWF/CMC are much stronger with this system and
therefore more QPF with the GFS being much weaker. If the GFS
verifies, maybe we get a dusting of snow. With the ECWMF, measurable
snow would occur. Given the extreme run to run inconsistency with
this event, it is too early to talk about accumulations or timing so
a chance of light snow will suffice.
 
00z PARA holds serve
eadd2dc5d13fbfd3a88dc2cad44eb017.jpg
f1ec9381428c14ca9ec274f718e76163.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
06z GFS is coming soon... maps initialized. Lets see if it's a lame wave or a good one. ;)
 
Through 24, looks like 12z & 18z & 00z.
 
Looks like the Northern Stream is going to leave that energy behind. Likely a good run again. Lets see. (will take a bit to come out)

Maybe a bit more shear/interaction vs previous runs.. but so far nothing major.
 
Yeah, wave is on the way. Might be a bit more South.
 
Snow already across Northern TX, North Central Arkansas, Trying to spread into Northern MS by hour 78 per 06z GFS.

Dropping into Southern Arkansas, Northern LA, NE TX.

Likely a big run for the South/Deep South.
 
Well, FFC finally put out a new forecast discussion. Confidence is growing:

Models are is a lot better agreement in the extended periods but
there are still some differences in timing and intensity. The
extended period starts off dry with a weak high pressure ridge
dominating the region. The ECMWF keeps a bit more moisture across
the area than the GFS but its still expected to be precipitation
free. They both also show a weakening frontal boundary moving
south out of the northern plains Thu and pushing into N GA friday.
Again the ECMWF brings a bit more moisture into the state than the
GFS but they are both showing almost the same solution. this front
moves into the GA with another wave/frontal boundary moving into
the state Fri/Sat. Again the ECMWF is a bit wetter with this next
front and about 6 to 12 hours faster with the system moving
through. With the models coming into a bit better agreement am
able to up pops a bit in the extended with the two frontal system
and getting a bit better handle on the expected rain/snow mix
across the area. As these two system push into the area cold air
is already in place so will see some mixed or frozen precipitation
mainly across N GA. There will be some areas across central GA
that see some mixing but its still a bit to early to try and get a
handle on accumulations if any. High pressure builds back into the
area Sat night/Sunday with dry conditions expected through the
end of the forecast.
Click to expand...
 
If you live from central AL, GA, SC into NC this run will likely be as big as 18z! Hell, it caught up and may be good for C. MS even.
 
Low is further south this run. Gonna be a good run for many except for the western regions of the Carolinas and the northern tier where less precipitations makes it into the region.
 
Quite a Winter Storm for the Deeper parts of the South. Will post snow maps soon.
 
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