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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

SoutheastRidge said:
Shawn said:
Anyone that doesn't know Eric Webb yet, check him out here on twitter.  BTW Eric, got you set up as a met student over here.  I figure people might not exactly know you're a beast yet.
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I remember him from Am Wx. The dude is a genius!
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He's here. ;)
 
bouncycorn said:
What do you all think about the major trend towards more interaction and a flatter s/w in the pacific northwest?
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I think we are gonna see our energy trend stronger over the next few days. the stronger the Better as it will be able to survive any pull from the northern stream. Plus more times than not we see SWs trend stronger as time rolls forward

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So it looks more and more like NC is going to get the big daddy this go around. The closer we get the more I feel this isn't a northern middle Tennessee storm but that's ok with me. I'm really hoping Atlanta and everyone south of Nashville gets a good snow out of this system as I know it's much harder to come by south of here.
 
bouncycorn said:
What do you all think about the major trend towards more interaction and a flatter s/w in the pacific northwest?
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I don't see a cutter or anything like some ensemble members think.  I see a weak, destroyed wave being sent to the middle of the country that might can spark something in the upper Southeast at worst.

I think when all is said and done, someone in Northern AL, GA, into Upstate SC and NC are in a better spot right now.   Us down here in the Deep South want the 18z GFS run.  I do like the Euro is taking a slight step to GFS though.
 
Shawn said:
Cary_Snow95 said:
I want to go ahead and give a huge pat on the back to you guys getting this site up and running in time for winter after TW. The site looks great, functions great, and has great people in it! Thank yall
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Thanks!  We are doing our best to streamline and make the site stable for everyone to enjoy and talk about the weather.  The forum software upgrade will hopefully allow us to really send this site off on another level.
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That sounds great Shawn. I like it already, the main reason being it's great to see all of you again. I don't post much but I do follow these forums religiously during the winter. Thanks for being here for us.
 
tonysc said:
Shawn said:
Cary_Snow95 said:
I want to go ahead and give a huge pat on the back to you guys getting this site up and running in time for winter after TW. The site looks great, functions great, and has great people in it! Thank yall
Click to expand...

Thanks!  We are doing our best to streamline and make the site stable for everyone to enjoy and talk about the weather.  The forum software upgrade will hopefully allow us to really send this site off on another level.
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That sounds great Shawn. I like it already, the main reason being it's great to see all of you again. I don't post much but I do follow these forums religiously during the winter. Thanks for being here for us.
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Awesome to have you here Tony.  :heart:
 
Shawn said:
bouncycorn said:
What do you all think about the major trend towards more interaction and a flatter s/w in the pacific northwest?
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 Us down here in the Deep South want the 18z GFS run.
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 Yeah, even way down here in the SAV, the 18Z GFS gave a very rare ~0.15" of rain equivalent mixed wintry precip. at 32 or colder (ZR to IP to SN)(tail end it is 29)! That would be a very rare event down here. Even the 0Z GFS, due to that very far south track and help from the cold high to the north, gives us here IP mixed with the rain and then changing to all IP late. It is 33-34 during most of this....very close call while 0.57" of qpf falls. Even that would be an uncommon occurrence here. This is the type of thing that can occur with a sfc low moving with such an uncommonly south track...moving through south-central FL on the 0Z GFS...while there is a cold high to the north. Even the 18Z's move through north-central FL can do this kind of thing, especially when there is a cold high to the north.

 Tracks more often than not trend north and climo says this is rare. Combining that with the fact there's little agreement with the other models tell me this is a low probability situation as of now. However, there being a small chance for something wintry in SAV-CHS is itself noteworthy.
 
Larry (GAWX) you are invaluable on these forums. Your ATL data or GA as a whole is unmatched.
 
EPS mean ticks up for the southeast. Some support for EURO OP and others target TN/Apps. Better EPS run compared to 12Z though!!
 
Shortwave on 6Z NAM is looking good. Starting the day off with positive trends continuing. Night all!
 
Control had a coastal it seems from the snowfall maps. Better EPS run.
 
EPS snowfall ( i know its empty, but better than 12z! ):

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Thanks Storm. Gawd help me tonight. So amped the new site is working okay so far!
 
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