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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Storm5 said:
metwannabe said:
Storm5 said:
18z gfs para crush job.... pound town

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Gives me 15"... I'm all in
99553182383a959cc117694eb03bc7f4.jpg


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Hey storm how reliable is the para gfs ?
 
If the early returns on 0z are a trend...really looks like the Euro may have been out to lunch again on a system this winter...
 
I'm having a hard time getting excited over the 18z para given the changes in the 0z gfs. CMC and UK are encouraging, though. Can't wait to see GEFS and Doctor Maybe.
 
SnowFlowXXL said:
For N GA posters, every model tonight has given us atleast 2 inches.  This could be our best event since JAN 2011

I feeling a repeat of the 2011 storm. Very similar in my opinion
 
GFS solution lost credibility with me when it did its magic disappearing act with the high lol

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Why do I keep getting PMs for relies to this thread when I am not subscribed to it?
 
The UKMET phases with that aforementioned secondary NS disturbance ~96-110 HR over the Great Lakes... That's why the low starts to deepen and come northward along and just off the Carolina coast
 
HartselleWeather said:
Storm5 said:
metwannabe said:
Storm5 said:
18z gfs para crush job.... pound town

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Gives me 15"... I'm all in
99553182383a959cc117694eb03bc7f4.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Hey storm how reliable is the para gfs ?
second highest 500mb verification scores behind the euro

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Benholio said:
I'm having a hard time getting excited over the 18z para given the changes in the 0z gfs. CMC and UK are encouraging, though. Can't wait to see GEFS and Doctor Maybe.
Para is superior vs the gfs op at H5. it's scores prove it

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I'm still going with a blend of the CMC and GFS...and maybe the 0z Euro. I know I said I'll go with a blend of the Euro as well but the new data will be coming in. I don't think the low will be pushed that far south. Usually with GOM lows that give the southeastern states snow, normally go up the Eastern seaboard giving the Mid-Atlantic and the northeast a big snow.
 
Storm5 said:
HartselleWeather said:
Storm5 said:
metwannabe said:
Storm5 said:
18z gfs para crush job.... pound town

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Gives me 15"... I'm all in
99553182383a959cc117694eb03bc7f4.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Hey storm how reliable is the para gfs ?
second highest 500mb verification scores behind the euro

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
With this type setup the Ukie, followed closely by Euro in verification during this timeframe....really wished I could find that study.

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Storm5 said:
Benholio said:
I'm having a hard time getting excited over the 18z para given the changes in the 0z gfs. CMC and UK are encouraging, though. Can't wait to see GEFS and Doctor Maybe.
Para is superior vs the gfs op at H5. it's scores prove it

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so is the para just the 18z version of the GFS... so the 0z para tomorrow could look like the 0z gfs tonight...
 
When it comes down to now casting then models won't matter except the short range models, which are the best
 
Interesting tidbit on the GFS Para.

http://blog.wright-weather.com/?p=1124


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