Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Benholio]

I'm having a hard time getting excited over the 18z para given the changes in the 0z gfs. CMC and UK are encouraging, though. Can't wait to see GEFS and Doctor Maybe.

Para is superior vs the gfs op at H5. it's scores prove it

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A good looking 0z para would be very encouraging.

 

[HartselleWeather]

If this low in the gulf was about 50-100 miles northward it would have been crushed town for a lot more people. That's my amateur opinion.


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[Snowflowxxl]

GFS Para says temps will be fine

 

[olhausen]

18z gfs para crush job.... pound town

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yep

I'll take the para since it's the only model giving me a decent snow tonight!

 

[bouncycorn]

I'm thinking ECMWF 00z will be a pretty big slugger. CMC and UKMET both trended north.

 

[Benholio]

GFS Para says temps will be fine

The (18z) GFS said temps would be fine too. Comparing 18z GFS para to 0z GFS is a bit apples-to-oranges.

 

[olhausen]

Oops I somehow quoted the wrong post

 

[Arcc]

CMC weenie snow map

OK now I have one eye open.....I'll take my eight and call it a winter.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Let me correct myself a bit, the GFS run doesn't lose the high but it never moves into a position to pump in CAD in the CAD areas. It's a little weird but it just totally stalls in the Midwest.

That may be causing the change in temps on this run.

 

[Brick Tamland]

There's 106 people that need to register.

 

[tellicowx]

time to see if GEFS thinks OP is out to lunch or not

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[WeatherGirl205]

Just wanted to say a quick hello to all, so glad I was able to find y'all again.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Sorry if this is a re-post but Kirk Mellish had some good thoughts on the model mayhem.

http://kirkmellish.blog.wsbradio.com/2017/01/02/cold-to-return-snow-odds-to-be-monitored/


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[snowplow]

Gfs para has had almost exact same storm track for the last 5 runs....fwiw!

 

[Aubighitter]

Dang cmc had 7 inches in Lee CTY and the gfs almost 3.

 

[Brick Tamland]

UK hasn't backed down the last couple of days, and now seems to be showing an even bigger storm.

 

[SnowHusky]

When the guests get blocked because of traffic volume, will the quote notifications be enabled?

 

[Webberweather53]

Although the GFS solution of a stronger cut-off ULL is appearing less likely atm, there's definitely more than one way to produce a monster storm for the Carolinas and surrounding areas of the SE in this situation. This shortwave over the Great lakes ~ day 4 will provide another chink in the armor for the global models, and its this feature that the CMC and UKMET key in on and partially phase it with our feeble southern branch disturbance, hence produce huge hits for the Carolinas and VA. If they mishandle this system and it gets involved, then it's a whole new ball game...

UKMET for ex...

 

[accu35]

UK hasn't backed down the last couple of days, and now seems to be showing an even bigger storm.

Is there a map

 

[Storm5]

When the guests get blocked because of traffic volume, will the quote notifications be enabled?

it will be fixed tomorrow

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