Stormlover
Member
good story about it
http://firsthandweather.com/2411/confidence-increasing-southeast-winter-storm-weekend/
http://firsthandweather.com/2411/confidence-increasing-southeast-winter-storm-weekend/
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I guess you can say that it's not a legitimate threat unless the GFS loses a storm at some pt in the medium range only to bring it back to life later....
sexy 00z gefs
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Snowflowxxl
Member
Nice to hear about the GEFS
Alright y'all, I think we should discuss the breakdown. How many models are going to show that more NW trend. As I mentioned earlier, I said that usually when the southeast gets snow, normally the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast gets the snow as well. This is why I don't agree with the low being in that lower latitude in the GOM. The 0z CMC thinks the low will be way further north than 0z GFS which I agree. How many models are we looking at, that has more of a northerly track of low?
Ron Burgundy
Member
ATLWxFan said:
In between all the equivocating, that's actually pretty bullish for Mellish this far out.
it's still a south shift on the gefs . but it's better than the optellicowx said:
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Storm5 said:
Ok by me, sorry losers.....
Oh wait it will still trend NW. Poop.....
Roswellian
Member
Wow got quiet real quick. People must have passed out from exhaustion.
00z gefs mean.....only 4 members are a complete miss
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Snow_chaser
Member
Everyone taking tums and pepto before the euro lol
F
farleydawg79
Guest
Any individual members?Storm5 said:00z gefs mean.....only 4 members are a complete miss
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bouncycorn
Meteorologist
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND:
*this is a first guess forecast. Lots of uncertainty and this will change!*
Good evening North Georgia and Metro Atlanta. Since last Thursday, I have been closely following the potential for a winter weather event this upcoming weekend. Confidence is increasing in *some sort of system*. Let me explain.
I hate to modelcast and rarely do it. Model-casting is when you base your forecast off of one model's snowfall projection or even a blend of several models. I feel this is ineffecient because models are constantly changing.
Over the last 48 models, the main models (CMC, GFS, ECMWF, JMA, UKMET) have shown anything from all rain (only one run of one model) to 13-16" of snow for North Georgia (GFS 5 runs). The likelihood of either solution is fairly low but the second holds more validity than the first. I am not, however, going to give you a speal of what models have or do show. I am here to make a forecast, not present models.
I project that much of North Georgia including metro Atlanta will see snowfall on Saturday. The amount, however, is largely in question. The big question is the low pressure placement. I do believe we get a benchmark miller A storm (sciency term for classic snow setup).
I continue to say that I believe some area, which could be anywhere between Macon and Blairsville, will receive the purple colored accumulations, which are 6+ inches. The greatest chance of 6+ inches, however, is the mountains. But there is an equally appealing case that the 6+ inches could be in central georgia, or straight through Metro Atlanta.
At this point, one thing is for certain. That stripe, or the banding deformation zone, will likely setup somewhere in our north georgia/metro atl area if we get the miller A track that I expect.
The biggest thing to get from this post is that everyone in North and Central Georgia needs to stay glued to weather updates, especially tomorrow and afterwords, as confidence increases.
I will also keep you updated with a forecast/discussion every day from here on out (i'll try to post them a bit earlier than tonight)
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*this is a first guess forecast. Lots of uncertainty and this will change!*
Good evening North Georgia and Metro Atlanta. Since last Thursday, I have been closely following the potential for a winter weather event this upcoming weekend. Confidence is increasing in *some sort of system*. Let me explain.
I hate to modelcast and rarely do it. Model-casting is when you base your forecast off of one model's snowfall projection or even a blend of several models. I feel this is ineffecient because models are constantly changing.
Over the last 48 models, the main models (CMC, GFS, ECMWF, JMA, UKMET) have shown anything from all rain (only one run of one model) to 13-16" of snow for North Georgia (GFS 5 runs). The likelihood of either solution is fairly low but the second holds more validity than the first. I am not, however, going to give you a speal of what models have or do show. I am here to make a forecast, not present models.
I project that much of North Georgia including metro Atlanta will see snowfall on Saturday. The amount, however, is largely in question. The big question is the low pressure placement. I do believe we get a benchmark miller A storm (sciency term for classic snow setup).
I continue to say that I believe some area, which could be anywhere between Macon and Blairsville, will receive the purple colored accumulations, which are 6+ inches. The greatest chance of 6+ inches, however, is the mountains. But there is an equally appealing case that the 6+ inches could be in central georgia, or straight through Metro Atlanta.
At this point, one thing is for certain. That stripe, or the banding deformation zone, will likely setup somewhere in our north georgia/metro atl area if we get the miller A track that I expect.
The biggest thing to get from this post is that everyone in North and Central Georgia needs to stay glued to weather updates, especially tomorrow and afterwords, as confidence increases.
I will also keep you updated with a forecast/discussion every day from here on out (i'll try to post them a bit earlier than tonight)
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the mean is Cleary skewed by a few huge members.
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Who is this from?bouncycorn said:POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND:
*this is a first guess forecast. Lots of uncertainty and this will change!*
Good evening North Georgia and Metro Atlanta. Since last Thursday, I have been closely following the potential for a winter weather event this upcoming weekend. Confidence is increasing in *some sort of system*. Let me explain.
I hate to modelcast and rarely do it. Model-casting is when you base your forecast off of one model's snowfall projection or even a blend of several models. I feel this is ineffecient because models are constantly changing.
Over the last 48 models, the main models (CMC, GFS, ECMWF, JMA, UKMET) have shown anything from all rain (only one run of one model) to 13-16" of snow for North Georgia (GFS 5 runs). The likelihood of either solution is fairly low but the second holds more validity than the first. I am not, however, going to give you a speal of what models have or do show. I am here to make a forecast, not present models.
I project that much of North Georgia including metro Atlanta will see snowfall on Saturday. The amount, however, is largely in question. The big question is the low pressure placement. I do believe we get a benchmark miller A storm (sciency term for classic snow setup).
I continue to say that I believe some area, which could be anywhere between Macon and Blairsville, will receive the purple colored accumulations, which are 6+ inches. The greatest chance of 6+ inches, however, is the mountains. But there is an equally appealing case that the 6+ inches could be in central georgia, or straight through Metro Atlanta.
At this point, one thing is for certain. That stripe, or the banding deformation zone, will likely setup somewhere in our north georgia/metro atl area if we get the miller A track that I expect.
The biggest thing to get from this post is that everyone in North and Central Georgia needs to stay glued to weather updates, especially tomorrow and afterwords, as confidence increases.
I will also keep you updated with a forecast/discussion every day from here on out (i'll try to post them a bit earlier than tonight)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk